Cleveland, Sports, Etc.

Virginia Spring Sports on “ESPNU”VA

2012-02-10T19:46:00.004-05:00

Now that the Super Bowl is over, my attention is now with UVA basketball and spring sports. While the #19 men’s basketball team is in the middle of the ACC schedule, Virginia’s spring sports are about to begin as well. The preseason #1 lacrosse team will begin their title defense against #20 Drexel 2/18 while #23 baseball hopes to return to the College World Series beginning on 2/17. Meanwhile the #2 tennis team started play last week, but takes a hiatus for the indoor championships before resuming on 2/26. Don’t worry about checking your local TV listings, because the lacrosse and baseball teams will be nationally televised on ESPN’s family of networks 15 times in the regular season with 10-20 more times possible in the postseason. Here is a quick glance of the TV schedule:

Lacrosse:

2/25-Stony Brook-ESPN3

3/4-Syracuse-ESPN

3/10-Cornell-ESPNU

3/24-Johns Hopkins-ESPNU

3/31-Maryland-ESPNU

4/7-UNC-ESPN

4/13-Duke-ESPNU

4/20-22-ACC Tourny-ESPNU

4/27-Penn-ESPN3

5/12-NCAA First Rd-ESPNU

Baseball:

3/17-FSU-ESPNU

3/18-FSU-ESPN3

3/19-FSU-ESPNU

4/9-Wake Forest-ESPNU

4/28-Miami-ESPN3

4/30-Miami-ESPNU

5/12-GT-ESPN3

Virginia is going to be on ESPNU 10 times between 3/10 and 4/30? Might as well start calling the network ESPNUVA.

Super Bowl Deja Vu?

2012-01-25T09:00:00.005-05:00

The buildup to this year’s Super Bowl surrounds two already Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and coaches. Both Eli Manning and Tom Brady have won at least one Super Bowl, while their current coaches have also won before. This got me thinking about how rare of a matchup this is. The chart at the bottom lists the starting QBs and coaches and there are some interesting results:

This is the fifth time two SB winning QBs have faced off and also the fifth time two SB winning coaches have met.
Surprisingly or not surprising at all, eight of those ten instances were the same games. The exceptions were when Warner (now on the Cardinals) faced Big Ben (now with Tomlin) and Don Shula was trying to win with Marino against Bill Walsh.
Along similar correlating lines, there have been 27 QBs trying to win their second ring, and 29 coaches. Those QBs have won 17 or 63% of those attempts, while the coaches have gone 62%.
It gets even weirder, three QBs have won their second ring with a different coach (Montana/Seifert, Aikman/Switzer, Big Ben/Tomlin) and three have lost trying with a new play caller (Warner/Martz, Warner/Whisenhunt, P Manning/Caldwell). Likewise, four coaches have won with a new QB (Gibbs/Williams, Parcells/Hostetler, Gibbs/Rypien, Seifert/Young) and four have lost with a new passer (Shula/Woodley, Shula/Marino, Parcells/Bledsoe, Holmgren/Hasselbeck).
Since this is only the fourth matchup of two previously winning QBs and coaches in the same game, you would think it was the first rematch between the same two pairs in a Super Bowl. However, the Steelers of Bradshaw and Noll faced off against the Cowboys lead by Staubach and Landry twice after all four had already been champions.

What does this all mean for Super Bowl XLVI? Not a clue. However, I do have a new found respect for Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Kurt Warner and Super Bowl XIII.

Eli-te Manning

2012-01-18T10:00:00.000-05:00

In the preseason Eli Manning answered a radio host’s question by saying he was an elite quarterback, which was met by scoffs from the media and opposing fans. While the Giants QB has been a Pro Bowler and Super Bowl MVP, he was not considered in the same class as other signal callers like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger, or even the best QB in his own family. Despite upsetting Brady in the Super Bowl, Eli’s aw shucks demeanor and 53 turnovers in the past two seasons while missing the playoffs did not help him get out of Peyton’s shadow.

However, since the season started, the youngest Manning has risen to the occasion. Aided by the middle Manning’s neck surgery and New York’s meager running game, Eli has captured the spotlight this season. In his best season as a pro, the Giants QB broke multiple Giants records including completions, yards, and career playoff touchdowns. His 4,933 yards would have been third all time going into this season, and when paired with 29 TD’s, would easily win MVP in other years. He even set a record for most 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season, previously held by Peyton and Johnny Unitas.

More importantly, Eli won his last two playoff games advancing to the NFC championship game, one win away from a possible Super Bowl rematch with Brady and the Patriots. With the two victories, he has improved his postseason record to 6-3, which at 67% compares quite favorably to other QBs with as many starts. If you look at the chart below, he has had more postseason success than Hall of Famers Staubach, Young, Griese, Tarkenton, Kelly, Marino, and Moon, as well as future Hall of Famers Favre and older brother Peyton. The nine QBs above him on the list have won a combined 23 of the 44 Super Bowls played, so maybe Eli’s new found stardom and renewed team success and will make it 24.

Quarterback	Wins	Losses	Percent	Hall of Fame
Bart Starr	9	1	90%	Yes
Jim Plunkett	8	2	80%
Tom Brady	15	5	75%	Will Be
Terry Bradshaw	14	5	74%	Yes
Troy Aikman	11	4	73%	Yes
Ben Roethlisberger	10	4	71%
Joe Montana	16	7	70%	Yes
Kurt Warner	9	4	69%	May Be
John Elway	14	7	67%	Yes
Eli Manning	6	3	67%
Roger Staubach	11	6	65%	Yes
Phil Simms	6	4	60%
Ken Stabler	7	5	58%
Steve Young	8	6	57%	Yes
Donovan McNabb	9	7	56%
Drew Brees	5	4	56%	May Be
Bob Griese	6	5	55%	Yes
Fran Tarkenton	6	5	55%	Yes
Brett Favre	13	11	54%	Will Be
Jim Kelly	9	8	53%	Yes
Steve McNair	5	5	50%
Danny White	5	5	50%
Mark Brunell	5	5	50%
Craig Morton	5	5	50%
Peyton Manning	9	10	47%	Will Be
Matt Hasselbeck	5	6	46%
Dan Marino	8	10	44%	Yes
Daryle Lamonica	4	5	44%
Randall Cunningham	3	6	33%
Dave Krieg	3	6	33%
Warren Moon	3	7	30%	Yes

Hoo’s Battling Duke for 1st Place?

2012-01-11T12:00:00.000-05:00

Don’t look now, but UVa men’s basketball team is 14-1 and ranked #16 in the country. The Cavaliers are the only one loss team left in in the ACC, putting them in first place as conference play starts up. This is the highest the team has been ranked since 2000, when they were #8 in the country. In the latest Bracketology forecast, ESPN predicts Virginia will be a 5 seed in the tournament which would be the team’s best seeding since they last made the tournament as a 4 seed in 2007.

UVa is led by fifth year senior Mike Scott, who is the leading scorer and has had five double doubles so far. He has already earned three ACC player of the week awards this season, only the fifth Cavalier to do so. The team also relies on one of the best defenses in the country, which is 2^nd out of 338 in scoring at 50.5 points a game, and 20^th in opponents’ field goal %. The fans at John Paul Jones Arena have embraced the defensive mindset by ramping up the decimal level whenever the opponents’ shot clock goes below 10 seconds.

However, the team’s biggest test to date is Thursday as they travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on #6 Duke. ESPN has this matchup as the upset pick of the week. Unfortunately, the Wahoos have not beaten the Blue Devils since 2007 and have not won on Coach K court since 1995, when the members of the Hoo’s roster were still learning how to walk let alone dribble a basketball. Yikes!

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Adventures

2012-01-10T00:39:00.001-05:00

After UVA surprisingly made the Peach Bowl (now Chick-Fil-A Bowl), Erryn and I decided to attend with some of my UVa buddies. The Atlanta hosted bowl is reserved for the second ranked ACC team, but Virginia Tech earned a BCS bid, leaving an opportunity for the Cavs to go to a top flight bowl after being predicted to finish in the basement of the division.

When we arrived in Atlanta, we were surprised to see plenty of fellow Cavs fans, but due to the proximity to Auburn, the Tiger fans showed up closer to gametime. Strangely enough, Auburn’s first football coach was a UVa alum and used our colors for their squad 100 years ago, hence tons of orange and blue in the streets of Atlanta. The highlight of the activities before the game was the parade, during 60 degree Georgia weather, and predictably tons of cows:

The game started off great with our marching band and early touchdowns and leads:

Unfortunately Auburn’s speed and our special teams errors took over the game leading to a 19 point loss. You are not going to win many games with two blocked punts, giving up an onside kick, a failed fake fg, and a 60 yard return. Despite the disappointment, I am optimistic about the young over achieving team and look forward to next year after sophomore QB Rocco’s improved play in the 2nd half of the season.

Tebow!

2011-12-12T17:14:00.001-05:00

Now that I’ve gotten your attention, here are some interesting facts and absurd stories accompanying Tebow Mania.

Everyone knows he’s gone 7-1, but his stats (10 passing tds, 2 ints, 517 rushing yards, 3 rushing tds) compare favorably to other hot QBs, Rodgers (8-0, 25 tds, 4 ints), Brady (6-2, 19, 5), Big Ben (7-1, 13, 5) and Brees (6-2, 20, 6).
Tebow’s stats through three quarters: 38% completion, 4.7 yards an attempt, 5 passing tds, 301 rushing yards, 1 rushing td. In the 4^th q/OT: 61%, 8.9 yards an attempt, 6 passing tds, 216 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds.
Tebowing (pictured above) is now an official word.
Tebow’s pastor says they are winning because God is on their side.
You can get Tebow Christmas cards on ebay.
He is getting MVP consideration.
“Tim Tebow” gets 194 million Google hits, compared to 11 million for undefeated Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, 11 million for injured Peyton Manning, 48 mil for Lebron James, and 68 mil for Tiger Woods. At least the other Golden Boy Tom Brady is almost half, at 81 million.
Speaking of Brady, the Patriots are the next team to try to stop Tebow Time. New England has the worst ranked defense in the league, so if the Broncos can somehow contain the Patriot offense, Denver fans’ prayers could continue to be answered.
Lastly, no one seems to have noticed that the Packers are undefeated at 13-0 while the Colts are 0-13. Hello!

Miami of Ohio Football Adventure

2011-11-14T23:52:00.000-05:00

This past week I got the opportunity to see my only cousin play D-1 football in person. As I have mentioned before in this blog, my cousin, Brad Bednar, is the starting left tackle for the Miami of Ohio Redhawks. After two seasons at center, he was moved to left tackle for his junior year for the defending MAC champs. Before the game I was able to bother him with pictures during warm-ups and then took videos during the action against Temple in Philadelphia:

It turned out to be an entertaining game as Miami mounted a fourth quarter comeback that fell just short. Miami WR Nick Harwell set school records for receptions and yards as the RedHawks tried to thwart the Owls intense pass rush. Despite the loss, Miami still has a chance to repeat as MAC champions and I had a great time supporting my cousin.

On a side note, I believe I’ve found college fans worse than Maryland. Despite being a campus of 37k, only a couple hundred Temple students made the 30 minute subway ride to the game. Notice the crowd in this picture. That’s roughly one fan for every 100 students. Compare that to UVa’s 10k student section for 20k students. Not showing up is one thing, but how they acted is what made it worse. After Miami scored a touchdown to make the game closer, half of their band came over to the Miami family section and began to play their fight song. After the Owls sealed the game a dozen students came over and started taunting the RedHawk section as well. Some of the students even had signs saying they should be in the Big East. They were kicked out of the Big East five years ago for poor attendance and a dismal record! Maybe it’s something in the water in Philly.

Boston Sports Adventure

2011-11-11T00:20:00.000-05:00

This past weekend, I visited Boston for the first time with my girlfriend Erryn, and happened to visit several sports related sites. The first day, we toured the campus of Boston College including the 2010 and 2008 NCAA champion hockey team’s arena as it was being prepared for a game.

Next we were able to walk on the football field, where the Eagles had just lost the night before in a rout by Florida State. Hence, they were running punishment laps.

Later in the weekend, we toured the oldest baseball park in the country, Fenway Park. While the sunny skies, helicopter fly over, and green monster were cool,

the fact that a groundskeeper has to manually change the NL scores on the field between innings and seeing the green monster seats hang over the street were the highlights.

The main event of the weekend was the Giants-Patriots game on Sunday for which we had suite tickets. Once again, the moonlit night, free food, and militia gun-firing were great,

but seeing Brady walk off his own field a loser for the first time in years was extra special.

As a side note, while it seemed like there were statues on every block for colonial historical figures, there were plenty of sports ones as well.

Glad I got to see at least one Manning take the field this season!

Pardon the Interruption, but PTI Turned 10 Years Old

2011-10-26T09:57:00.000-04:00

On Monday, my favorite sports television show, Pardon the Interruption, or PTI, marked its 10 year anniversary. In case you do not DVR it daily, the sports debate show airs daily on ESPN featuring two former Washington Post sports columnists Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. The show is especially significant to me since I grew up reading columns by these two while eating my breakfast cereal and interned at their studio for a summer, sitting in on tapings. While I consider myself the show’s “first” fan, I think the guest in the clip below might disagree.

UVA Finishes a Perfect Day with an Upset

2011-10-18T09:00:00.000-04:00

For the first time in several seasons I did not purchase UVA season tickets, but chose to come to just a handful of key games. Undefeated #12 Georgia Tech and a sunny fall day seemed like the perfect time for a tailgate as well. While the Yellow Jackets came in touting an option offense that ran all over the Hoos in previous seasons, Virginia had the bye week to prepare for the gimmick. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead, the Cavaliers let the Rambling Wreck back in the game with a missed field goal and pick six. Then Coach London figured out what VT Coach Beamer had enjoyed for years, beating up on an Al Groh coached defense. The Hoos gave the Yellow Jackets and their former coach a taste of their own medicine by running for their highest total in seven seasons, while holding them to their lowest offensive output in 20 games. UVA was even able to run out the last six minutes of the game as students ran out onto the field:

Now that Virginia is 4-2, they are only two wins away from bowl eligibility and luckily have home games coming up against NC State and Duke. Heck, they even received three votes in the AP poll on Sunday, capping a great weekend.

NFL Teams' Best and Worst Starts Since...

2011-10-13T12:00:00.000-04:00

There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Detroit Lions are off to their best start since 1956 and the Colts are off to their worst since 1997. This got me to thinking, how remarkable have these seasons been in comparison to other teams' starts? Is the NFL that consistent that if a team starts off really hot or cold, it is history making? I looked at the current standings and compared them to when the last time the team had that surprisingly few or high number of wins through 4-5 games (some teams have had byes already). Here is the graph with analysis afterwards:

Detroit is having their best season in 55 years.
Green Bay has not been 5-0 in 46 years as well.
Indy, Denver, and Philly have not started this poorly since the late 90's.
The other feel good stories of the season, 49ers and Raiders, are justified in their press since it has been nine seasons since they've had this good a record through five games.

While those seven teams are the extremes, the other 25 are more predictable:

Seven teams have the same exact record at this point last year. (The Bucs, Texans, and Giants had playoff aspirations going into this year and have the same record this point last year which they just missed the playoffs. For all the excitement and hope Cam Newton has brought the Panthers, they are 1-4 just like last year.)
Another seven have the same disappointment or optimism as two seasons ago. (Mediocre Dallas was also at 2-2 two years ago when they made the playoffs.)
Washington and Buffalo are on top of their divisions, but both had the same great start only three years ago when they each missed the playoffs.
Half the league's teams were just as good or just as bad at this point within the past three seasons.

I'm sure week 10 or other years might show differently, but this snapshot shows how remarkably consistent NFL teams are. Therefore, do not panic or join the bandwagon for your favorite team just yet, because your team is likely to be just where it was a couple years ago anyways.

ACC Leading the Charge to Super Conferences

2011-09-20T10:28:00.000-04:00

Now that Pittsburgh and Syracuse have officially bolted from the Big East for the ACC, the race to the four super conferences has begun. The Atlantic Coast Conference is now the first team with over 12 football teams in their conference and will most likely add two more schools to create two eight team divisions. Which two teams will they add and how will the other conferences react?

Most of the rumors at this point focus on UConn as the next school to jump ship to the ACC, which would help the football/basketball balance. If the Huskies do join the conference, then the past three NCAA basketball champions and eight of the past eleven would reside in either the Atlantic or Coastal Division. Imagine matchups like Duke/UConn, UNC/Syracuse, Maryland/Pittsburgh several times each year. Meanwhile, the 16^th team is still a mystery. Rumors include current Big East members Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati, as well as long shot Big 12 powerhouse Texas.

In 2005, the ACC started the current realignment when they poached Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami from the Big East. Then other conferences followed suit over the past couple years to reach 12 teams and the lucrative conference championship games. The ACC expansion this week is the first domino to fall in what is going to be a nationwide realignment as four conferences will form 16 team super conferences. This link lists the latest realignment rumors as most people predict the Big East and Big 12 will go under, leaving the Pac-16, Big 16 (Former Big 10), SEC, and ACC standing.

While the impression that these university presidents and conference commissioners are chasing money for mostly football programs is disturbing, the geographical outcome is comical. This year Pacific 12 teams have to travel over the Rockies for the first time to play divisional games against Colorado and Utah. Texas Christian is already slated to play in the Big East next year in games possibly at Connecticut and South Florida. If Oklahoma leaves the crumbling Big 12 to the Pac-16, they will be 1,400 miles from the Pacific, while Texas would be 1,000 miles to the nearest Atlantic Coast if they join the ACC.

Even the four major television networks are getting in on the realignment action. The SEC and CBS have been partners for the past 15 years, while last year the ACC inked a major deal with ABC/ESPN and the PAC-12 is now with FOX. If Notre Dame ever gets off their high horse and joins the Big 16, guess which major broadcast network will still air their games?

Maybe these conferences are trying to form these four super conferences to create a four team playoff and quash the BCS. Imagine the winner of the Pac-16 championship game playing the winner of the Big 16 in the traditional Rose Bowl matchup. Meanwhile the winners of the ACC and SEC could face off in a Southeastern venue, like the Georgia Dome or Orange Bowl. Then the winners of those two games play weeks later in a title game in a more centralized location like the Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, JerryWorld, etc.

So maybe after all this chaos we could end up with 64 teams playing in a season to get down to eight elite teams playing in conference championship games, with a chance to be the final four teams remaining, culminating in a championship game not decided by voters or computers. Hmm, imagine a NCAA sport doing that?

Three Defensive Plays Determine the Outcome for Browns, Redskins, and Cavs Games This Week

2011-09-14T08:00:00.000-04:00

During the first week of the NFL season, and first week of D1 play for UVA, three remarkable defensive plays changed the outcome of my favorite teams’ games.

After redeeming themselves last week by defeating William and Mary in the season opener, Virginia travelled to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers. After going up 23-3 in the third quarter, the Cavaliers gave up 28 unanswered points to a program that has only been to one bowl game in 18 seasons. The Hoos answered with a 15 play drive to tie the game at 31-31 with under two minutes left. After a couple of ineffective plays, IU lined up for a third down and five on their own 23 with only a half a minute until overtime: (skip to the :36 mark):

Senior defensive end Cam Johnson comes around the end and not only sacks the QB, but strips the football and recovers the fumble with one hand…all before hitting the ground! A couple plays later, Robert Randolph hits a 23 yard FG with seconds left. Victory!

"In the past, we probably would have given up or tucked and said, 'Oh, what the heck.' But these guys just kept on playing,” Coach Mike London said. “And in the end we just made more plays than they made, and the play that Cam Johnson made was unbelievable."

Meanwhile on Sunday, the Browns opened their season at home against a similarly underdog opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. Up 17-13 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland had already knocked out the Bengals starting QB and were a couple stops or turnover away from sealing the victory. With under five minutes left, Cincinnati put together a drive to move into Browns’ territory but were facing a third down and eleven (right click on picture to open play in new window):

Backup QB Bruce Gradkowski quick snaps the ball and finds rookie WR AJ Green wide open for his first NFL reception for a 41 yard score. Not only was the defense caught off guard, but they had 12 men on the field as well! Stunned by the sudden deficit, the Cleveland offense responded with 25 yards, seven incompletions and an interception on their final three drives combined as the Bengals offense later sealed the win with a 39 yard touchdown run.

“They caught the whole organization asleep on that one,” linebacker Scott Fujita said Monday. “We were all responsible,” coach Pat Shurmur said. “Which includes me.”

Later in the afternoon, the Redskins faced bitter rival New York Giants, which had won the previous six meetings. In a back and forth matchup, the teams came out of the locker room at half time tied 14-14 and the Giants started with the ball. New York quickly faced a third down and ten from the shadow of their own goal line minutes into the second half:

Rookie defensive end Ryan Kerrigan avoids the chop block by the right tackle and picks off Eli Manning’s quick screen attempt and rumbles into the end zone breaking the tie. While there was still almost a full half remaining in the game, the defensive touchdown set the tone for the rest of the game. Washington’s defense caused four sacks and three 3-and-outs, while only allowing four New York first downs and 93 yards for the rest of the half, clinching a 28-14 victory.

“He has great awareness for a big guy,” linebacker Brian Orakpo said of Kerrigan. “He made a great play, got to score a touchdown, and that’s all she wrote.”

Three separate third down defensive plays determined the outcome of my three favorite teams this weekend. While I hope Cam Johnson and Ryan Kerrigan’s performances are a glimpse of more things to come this season, first year Browns head coach Pat Shurmur better learn fast before the schedule gets tougher later in the season.

Quotes and Further Reading:

Cam Johnson Saves the Day for Virginia

Browns Regroup After Snap Blunder

Washington Rookie Ryan Kerrigan Breaks the Game Open

Peyton’s Not Manning Up

2011-09-08T14:18:00.000-04:00

This Sunday, Peyton Manning will miss the opener against Houston with a neck injury, which would not normally be a big deal. However, the four time MVP has not missed his last 228 starts over a 13 year span. To put the streak into perspective, here are some interesting stats about when the streak started on September 6^th, 1998:

The BCS was in its first season as well
Michael Jordan was still on the Bulls
The Monica Lewinsky/Bill Clinton scandal was in full swing
9/11 was still 3 years away
Armageddon and There’s Something About Mary were the top movies
AOL 4.0 was king, while Google and Facebook were years away
“My Heart Will Go On” was the top song
Seinfeld had just ended 4 months earlier
The (new) Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Washington Nationals, Oklahoma City Thunder, Nashville Predators, Atlanta Thrashers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, and Charlotte Bobcats did not exist yet
His younger brother, Super Bowl MVP Eli, was still in high school, and now has the longest streak for quarterbacks
Colt McCoy, his replacement on my Fantasy Football team, was only 12

But the Colts need not to worry, since Peyton’s temporary replacement, Kerry Collins, was already in the league three seasons and was waived by Carolina when the streak started. Yikes.

The Unsung Brown Joe Thomas Gets His Due

2011-08-23T13:21:00.000-04:00

Finally, the Browns were able to do something right. This morning, Cleveland extended Left Tackle Joe Thomas’s contract for seven years, $84 million. Why is spending $44 million guaranteed on a lineman a great move? Only because Thomas has made the Pro Bowl in each of his four seasons, and first team All-Pro twice already. He was voted the top left tackle in the league, and has never missed a start. The Browns now have the anchor of their line and protector of their quarterback locked down for another seven seasons.

While the Browns first round draft futility has been discussed before on this blog, Thomas’s success so far shines a new light on it. He has made four Pro Bowls already while the previous 14 players Cleveland drafted his year or earlier have a combined two. Even the last 23 only have a combined four All-Pro selections, compared to Thomas’s three (two first team, one second team). You have to go all the way back to the 1978 draft class of Clay Matthews Jr and Ozzie Newsome to find a comparably solid first round draft selection, and Clay Matthews III is now in the league!

Who’s ready for some FFL? A case study of Wide Receivers vs Running Backs in Keeper Leagues

2011-08-11T17:01:00.001-04:00

Now that preseason games are starting, there is no better time to talk about Fantasy Football. The other day, I received encouraging word that one of my players, Terrell Owens, might be 100% recovered from his torn ACL he injured earlier this spring. Despite TO’s on and off the field detrimental antics to his teammates, he has actually been an outstanding and consistent fantasy player. In his 15 year career he has scored at least 50 fantasy points 14 times, and was top ten in wide receiver scoring in ten of those seasons. Likewise, other Hall of Fame bound receivers, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, had similar productive careers. This got me to thinking, how do running backs compare? Do they have as long or as consistent careers as receivers? I looked at fantasy scoring in the past ten seasons, and the career paths of the top WR and RB’s, and noticed some interesting trends:

Of the top ten overall scorers at both positions in the past decade, there were 97 50 pts+ seasons for WR’s, while only 74 for RB’s.
When looking at the top ten ranked RB’s and WR’s on draft boards this year, only three of the RB’s were even in the league five seasons ago (Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner-a backup then), while six of the WR’s were active.
When looking at those same top ten ranked players, the RB’s only have a combined 28 50 pts+ seasons, compared to 43 by WR’s.
Not only are the RB’s careers shorter in comparison, but the stats are declining since NFL teams are increasing the use of “running backs by committee”. The top ten RB’s averaged 340 carries, 1,540 yards, and 15 tds in 2005, but now only 312 carries, 1,340 yards, and 11 tds, a 10-20% decline.

While 50 pts+ seasons might not win yearly leagues, for keeper or dynasty leagues, in which you keep 8 players season to season, the consistency is gold. For instance, if you had Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, and Arian Foster on your team last year, you probably won the title, but would not have kept any of those players going into the season. Seven to ten year veteran WR’s like Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson are still in their prime and are in the top ten in their position. Meanwhile, younger veteran RB’s Turner and Jackson mentioned earlier are beginning to wear down and are a year or two from the 30 year old drop off. When looking at this year’s draft class, rookies Daniel Thomas, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, DeMarco Murray, and Roy Helu will be drafted early in hopes of a handful of 100 pts+ seasons. Meanwhile, WR’s like Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Greg Little are more likely to produce a decade of 50 pts+ seasons, which is more productive in the long run and an better model for a dynasty league.

Know Your Washington Nationals

2011-07-13T22:40:00.001-04:00

With the spring sports now finished, we are entering the dog days of summer sports. With the NFL and even the NBA locked out now, we are left with only baseball of the major sports on SportsCenter. With MLB at the all-star break, there’s no better time to catch up with the Nationals.

Washington enters the second half of the season at .500 after being a couple games above this late in the season for the first time since 2005. They are winning due to their pitching, which is 10^th in ERA, and fielding, which is 12^th in the majors. The Nat's batters need to improve in the second half though, since they are 27^th in average, 23^rd in runs, and 25^thin OBS. As for the stars, Werth and Zimmerman are only batting .214 and .254, while fortunately Strasburg might be pitching next month and Harper was promoted to AA.

In the days before play resumes on the team’s bright future, try to test your knowledge of the team’s past to pass the time. Can you name the Nationals all-time stat leaders in 5 minutes? Can you name the Nationals opening day lineups in 8 minutes? Or you can just read up on these guys.

Spring Sports Recap

2011-06-29T21:56:00.000-04:00

This year’s #1 spring sports teams fared much better than last year’s edition. Last year, five of my favorite teams were ranked #1 going into the postseason and all of them choked. Luckily this year, of the four teams that made the playoffs, only one went out early. Coincidentally, the team that came in with the least expectations was the one that won a title.

The Capitals came into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league and earned the top seed in the East, only to get swept in the second round to the Lightning. Despite their consecutive early exits the past two seasons, the team seems stuck in the same direction by resigning Brooks Laich to a big deal and retaining Coach Boudreau.

Over the weekend, UVA’s #1 ranked baseball team lost in extra innings to eventual back-to-back champion South Carolina after committing back to back errors, having their star pitcher go out sick, and going 0-14 with runners in scoring position. Despite the excruciating way they were eliminated, the Cavaliers had their best season ever, lasting until the final four teams.

Similarly, the UVA tennis team made the final for the first time in the programs history, but also fell short to the eventual back-to-back champion USC (California, not Carolina this time). Despite being a couple points away from pulling off the come-from behind victory, there is no reason they cannot contend for a title again next year considering they are 68-0 against opponents not named the Trojans.

Oddly enough, my spring sports team that ended up going all the way was the one with the lowest expectations; the #7 ranked lacrosse team. Luckily, there’s a chance they can bring home another trophy next season considering most of the starters will be back next year.

Even though the Cleveland Cavs and Wizards did not even make the playoffs, they got great reviews in the draft, so there is hope all around.

Jim Riggleman Quits On the Above .500 Nationals

2011-06-23T16:54:00.000-04:00

Minutes after the lowly Nationals won their 11th game in 12 tries, manager Jim Riggleman resigned over a contract dispute. He walks away from a team which is now above .500 for the first time this late in the year since their inaugural season in 2005. Apparently the 140-172 coach dropped an ultimatum on GM Mike Rizzo to extend his current one year deal in the midst of one of the best stretches in the team's recent history.

Only a DC sports team can have both positive and negative news on ESPN.com at the same time: (click to enlarge)

Virginia Cavaliers are Omaha Bound!

2011-06-14T00:08:00.000-04:00

UVa’s baseball team is headed to the College World Series for the second time in the program’s history after a thrilling three game series against UC-Irvine. The past weekend, the Cavaliers hosted the Anteaters in the super regional round of the NCAA tournament in surprisingly stormy Charlottesville. In the first game, #2 overall MLB draft pick Danny Hultzen and Cody Winiarski combined to pitch a four hit shutout in the Hoo’s 6-0 victory despite a two hour rain delay.

On Sunday, the Wahoo’s jumped to a 3-0 lead in the second game before monsoon season came delaying the game for four hours. Once play resumed, UC Irvine gained momentum and rallied to tie the game in seventh and took the lead for good in the eighth, forcing an additional game.

In the third and decisive game, the Anteaters and Cavs were locked in a 1-1 pitchers duel going into the ninth inning. In the top of the inning, UVA made an uncharacteristic error on a bunt attempt putting men on first and third with no outs. The next Anteater batter drove in the leading run on a double play. Then in the bottom of the inning, Virginia’s first two batters were quickly retired. Trailing by one run, in front of five thousand fans at home, the nation’s #1 team was on the ropes. Then after falling 1-2, one strike away from elimination, David Coleman singled to center, Jared King got an infield single, and Reed Gragnani walked on four pitches to load the bases. After taking strike one, Chris Taylor makes Sportcenter’s #5 play of the day:

After one strike away from having nothing to write about, now my only concern is which sweet tee shirt I could get?

So Far, So Good for UVA Baseball

2011-06-07T00:10:00.000-04:00

Virginia’s road to Omaha got off to a great start this weekend as the Cavaliers baseball team won all three games in the regional round. In three straight routs, the Wahoos crushed Navy, St. Johns, and ECU by a combined 29-3. In addition to their offensive prowess, UVa pitchers struck out 42 batters out of the possible 81 outs. #15 UC-Irvine comes to Charlottesville for the Super Regional this weekend after upsetting UCLA. The Anteaters hosted Virginia two years ago, when the Cavs made it all the way to the College World Series.

In addition, UVa got some other good news, when pitcher Danny Hultzen was surprisingly selected second overall by the Seattle Mariners in last night’s MLB Draft, the highest ever for a Hoo baseball player. I was hoping he was going to fall to sixth to the Nationals, but it looks like there can only be one Cavalier playing close to home.

UVA Spring Sport Champions

2011-05-31T08:02:00.000-04:00

Over the Memorial Day weekend, two of Virginia’s spring sports teams won titles. In Baltimore, the Cavalier men’s lacrosse team won their fifth NCAA title, while in Durham; the baseball team won its third ACC tournament crown.

In the first game of the lacrosse final four, UVa faced off against an upstart Denver squad making its first appearance on the big stage, compared to the Wahoo’s 21^st. Their inexperience showed as the Cavs jumped to a 5-2 first quarter lead and were up 13-3 at one point. After dispatching the Pioneers with a final score of 14-8, Virginia advanced to their ninth final, this time against rival Maryland.

On a sweltering hot Memorial Day, the Terrapin defense cooled off the Hoos, shutting them out in the first quarter. Despite playing in Maryland’s backyard at Ravens Stadium, the Cavaliers responded to take a 5-3 halftime lead. After the Terps rallied to tie the game at six in the fourth quarter, Virginia used their new ball control precision offense to connect on three straight goals, which sent the black and red clad fans heading for the exits with two minutes left. The nine goals scored by the Cavs were the second fewest on the year, the fewest also being against Maryland in an earlier loss.

This was the fifth title for the program, third since my freshman year in 2003, which is an absurdly high number when compared to the rest of the teams in my 100% theory. During that same span, only one of the other eleven teams have won a title (1% Colts in ‘06), and one other even made a title game (Cleveland Cavs in ’07). It gets even worse when you expand the time frame, since five of the teams have never won a title (UVa football and basketball, Cleveland Cavs, Capitals, and Nationals) and the Indians and Browns have not won in almost five decades. Maybe I should only have lacrosse jerseys and posters. This is certainly a good start.

Not to be forgotten, the UVa baseball team won their second ACC title game in three years over the weekend as well. Virginia won all four of their games in the tournament including victories over three top-20 schools. They will hope to capitalize on this momentum as they did two years ago when they won the tournament and advanced to their only College World Series. It helps that they will be the #1 overall seed and have this new shirt to wear around.

Almost a Title for UVA Spring Sports

2011-05-26T00:50:00.001-04:00

This past week was up and down for the dominant Virginia spring sports teams. One pulled off an upset, another won and lost, while one just plain lost.

UVa’s #1 men’s tennis team headed into the NCAA Tournament this past weekend undefeated and went into their first ever title game unblemished. After cruising over Illinois and two close matches against Stanford and Ohio State, Virginia faced #2 USC in the title game. The Trojans were the two-time defending champs and knocked the Cavaliers out of the tournament last year. After going down 3-0 early, the Hoos rallied to tie the match 3-3, only to fall in the last points. Maybe UVA’s coaches need to start secretly taping USC’s practices or go Tonya Harding on their best player because their only two losses in the past 70 matches were to the Trojans.

Meanwhile on Long Island, Virginia’s men’s lacrosse team faced #2 Cornell in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. The Big Red came into the matchup as one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 11 in a row. Even though UVa was the last team to beat Cornell, the Wahoo’s are a different team now with the suspensions of two of their best players, and looked like it going down 4-1 early. Luckily the Cavs rallied in the 2^nd quarter with a stunning 9 unanswered goals to essentially seal the win with the 10-4 halftime lead. Not only did UVa make its fourth straight final four with the win, but coach Dom Starsia broke the record for most all-time D1 wins. Virginia faces an up and coming Denver squad this Saturday on ESPN, which has already beaten Duke and Hopkins this year, and are led by 6-time title winning coach Bill Tierney. If Virginia advances, they would face one of two arch rivals, Duke or Maryland on Memorial Day on ESPN.

Luckily flying under the radar, the #1 Hoos baseball team got swept over the weekend to North Carolina. Not only was it the first time they lost a series this season, but the Cavaliers had not been swept in three years. The ACC Tournament starts this week which will be a nice tune up for the NCAA Tournament which starts in June. Fortunately, the Cavs anemic offense against UNC (3 runs) woke up with a 13-1 mercy rule pounding of Wake Forest in the first game on Wednesday.

Let’s hope the lacrosse and baseball teams can finish their seasons on top, unlike the tennis team which almost won a title. Wait, does UVA have a horseshoes and hand grenades team?

Cleveland Cavaliers Win Draft Lottery

2011-05-17T23:34:00.000-04:00

The Cleveland Cavaliers took a big step in the post Lebron James era as they won the NBA draft lottery tonight. Not only do they have the number one overall pick (from a trade with the Clippers), but they have the fourth overall as well. Maybe David Stern rigged the bouncing balls to correct the carnage left in Lebron’s absence, or maybe it’s just the Clippers doing what they do best.

While there is no clear cut top choice like in previous years (Wall, Griffin, Rose, etc), two solid draft selections can be a great foundation for the team’s future. It would have been interesting to draft another hometown hero, Jared Sullinger out of Ohio State, but he is returning to school, and I’d be wary of drafting an OSU big man #1 anyway. There will be a lot of speculation on who the Cavs should draft (Arizona’s Derrick Williams, Duke’s Kyrie Irving, European no names), but maybe they should trade down since they need a lot of help. They would be drafting for potential, not immediate need since they had the worst record in the conference, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Williams and say Kemba Walker in Cleveland uniforms next year.

Another Great Weekend for UVA Spring Sports

2011-05-16T23:34:00.000-04:00

So far, so good for Virginia spring sports teams. This past weekend, UVA’s men’s tennis and men’s lacrosse teams were victorious in their opening rounds of the NCAA playoffs, while the baseball team continued their dominant season.

The #1 men’s tennis team started the NCAA tournament at home last weekend against Sacred Heart and Wake Forest. The Wahoos continued their perfect season by dispatching the Demon Deacons and Pioneers by a combined 8-1. Virginia travels to Stanford for the final four rounds, played in a six day span, beginning with Illinois on Thursday. They have won 67 of their past 68 matches and have made this sweet 16 round for the eighth consecutive year without even making the finals once. Let’s hope the eighth time’s a charm.

A couple days later at Klockner Stadium, UVA’s men’s lacrosse team prevailed in overtime against an underrated Bucknell team 13-12 in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Bison came in with the better record and ranking but revealed their playoff inexperience by not controlling the ball and killing the clock when they were ahead in the final minutes. Despite their struggles this season, the Cavs advanced to the elite eight for the sixth time in seven seasons and next weekend will be up against #2 Cornell.

Meanwhile a hundred yards away, Virginia’s #1 baseball team completed a series victory over #16 Miami. 45-6 UVa has won all ten of their series’ this year with only #13 UNC left until the ACC and NCAA tournaments begin in a couple weeks.

Hopefully these teams can keep up their winning ways this weekend since there is no Caps or Cleveland Cavs to follow in the playoffs anymore this year.

Should the Caps Should Fire Boudreau?

2011-05-04T23:46:00.000-04:00

Once again, the Capitals choked in the playoffs, being swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning. After converting 17% of their power plays in the regular season, DC scored on only 2 of their 18 opportunities and 10% for the entire playoffs. Likewise after killing off all but 14.4% of penalties during the regular season, for 2^nd place, the Caps allowed 3 power play goals in 4 games to Tampa. Of course, Washington ran into a hot goalie in Roloson who leads the league in the post season in goals against average and save percentage. Backstrom (2 points in playoffs) and Semin (2 in series) disappeared after averaging almost a point a game in the regular season. What is the aftermath for Boudreau and the Caps after this collapse?

Is the bbq faced, sailor mouthed coach fully to blame for the collapse? While only going 17-20 in the playoffs and losing four of six playoffs series are pretty damning, he has the highest winning percentage of all active coaches. While it looked like the players gave up in the third period of game three and missed opportunities, it is the coach’s responsibility to get the players up for any opponent. During the eight game losing streak back in December, chronicled by HBO’s 24/7, it looked like Boudreau was already losing his players with his absurd profanity laden rants. Maybe the players are to blame as well.

Which players are free agents, need to be traded, and are too soft to win in the playoffs? Arnott, Sturm, Knuble, Laich, Bradley, Gordon, and Hannan are unrestricted free agents and only Laich and Knuble would be worthy to re-sign if they can improve on going to the net. Speaking of soft, figure skater Semin has been re-signed year to year reflecting the management’s lack of faith in his disappearing act in the playoffs and dumb penalties. Meanwhile Green might have improved his defense this year, but his offensive skills too often cause liabilities in the defensive zone. Maybe trading Semin and Green are options for a more defensive minded blue liner and tougher forward since each have only one year left on their contracts.

If firing Boudreau is the option, then who is going to take his place? While the Caps can call up Mark French, who won the Calder Cup for the Hershey Bears last year, they might want to avoid bringing up a minor league coach like Boudreau again. Maybe this team needs a disciplinarian that can handle the superstars’ egos and tendencies to revert back to bad habits when pressed in the playoffs. All I know is that I am growing pretty tired of watching 17 days worth of regular season games the past two seasons only for it to be over in a mere 40 hours.

Hopefully Peyton Hillis can 'Cover' the Browns' Failures?

2011-04-27T17:17:00.000-04:00

Finally some good news for the Browns! Cleveland’s star running back Peyton Hillis is now on the cover of this season’s Madden videogame. With 66% of the vote, he beat out comeback story Michael Vick, after upsetting Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers last week en route to victory. It is kind of fitting that the Dawg Pound voted Hillis in over the dog killer.

While there is a curse to the Madden cover (see the infamous list here), there is also a Cleveland curse which has been much ballyhooed in this blog. Maybe these two curses will cancel each other out and the Browns and Hillis will return to the playoffs and glory? Or, more likely, Hillis’ fun but dangerous bruising style of running through and jumping over defenders will lead to injuries and fumbles this season, adding to the Madden curse’s lore.

Either way, I am still getting the game for the first time in five years.

Virginia Spring Sports Update

2011-04-25T21:59:00.000-04:00

Since I last posted on UVA’s spring sports successes on March 30^th, the tennis and baseball teams have gone an impressive 24-2.

The #1 tennis team remained perfect on the season winning the past nine matches 46-8 against five #16 teams. Last weekend, the Hoo’s won their fifth consecutive ACC title without even losing a set. Let’s hope they keep up their winning ways and reverse their choking history in the NCAA tournament, which begins May 13^th.

Meanwhile, the #1 baseball team has gone 15-2 since their perfect game almost a month ago, including at #8 Georgia Tech. UVA is still in the middle of their ACC schedule with tough matchups against #24 Miami and #5 UNC remaining. Like the tennis team, hopefully the baseball team can complete their season with a title.

Unfortunately I do not want to discuss the lacrosse team’s fortunes, which have lost three of their last four and have dropped out of the top #10. Maybe it’s time the lacrosse team shares the good luck in the playoffs, especially since I already have a sweet tee.

Indians and Nationals are Winning?

2011-04-18T23:59:00.001-04:00

Usually during this time of the year I focus my attention on NHL and NBA playoffs, while I barely notice that baseball season has started. But do not look now, because the Indians have the best record in the American League while the Nationals are above .500.

At 12-4, Cleveland is tied for the best record in the majors, ahead of last year’s division leader Twins and perennial power Red Sox who are both struggling at 5-10. The Tribe are third in the majors in homers, fifth in ERA, and second in opponents batting average. Cleveland’s hot start can be attributed to the healthy returns of Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Grady Sizemore, as well as contributions from youngsters Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin. After being above 500 for only one game in the past two seasons and picked to finish fourth their division, hopefully the Indians can keep this up and give Cleveland fans some much needed hope.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are turning heads as well. In a season without Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, Washington is currently above .500. While that might not seem like much, keep in mind that since their inaugural season in 2005, the Nat’s have been above .500 for only 33 games. Of the 810 games has DC taken the field, only 4% of the time have they had a winning record. Three of those seasons they never had a winning record at any point, and the longest they lasted before turning south was May 28^th. Despite subpar batting (27^th in average) fielding (22^nd) and Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, the Nationals are getting by due to four starters with sub 3.4 ERAs. Hopefully Washington can keep glimmers of hope alive in upcoming series against Pittsburgh and NY Mets before facing San Francisco and Philadelphia in early May.

Not bad for two teams in the bottom eight in salary in the league.

Should the Caps Want the #1 Seed?

2011-03-31T23:28:00.000-04:00

Ever since their nine game winning streak brought them to the top of the conference standings, the Capitals have been chasing the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the East. The top team gets the number one seed in the playoffs and home field advantage. However, when looking at recent NHL playoff history, is this something Washington really wants?

In the past ten NHL playoffs, number one seeds have not fared well, especially in the East. Only two #1 seeds made the Stanley Cup Final with only one winner (Tampa Bay). The average seed in either conference to make the Finals is 3.1, which is higher than in the NFL (2.4) and NBA (2.0) during that time frame. Many things factor into this including hot goalies and more prominent home field advantage in the other sports. Oddly enough, when looking at the winners of the Stanley Cup, the NHL has the lowest average seed at 2.0 compared to 3.2 and 2.1 from the other sports. This can be attributed to the NFL playing the Super Bowl at a neutral site and the NBA Finals switching to a 2-3-2 home/away/home format.

Of course the actual matchups matter as well, which also supports a caution for the Capitals pursuit of the top spot. At the current standings, the #6 seed would be Montreal, #7 Buffalo, and #8 New York, with Carolina on the outside looking in. DC is a combined 10-3 against the Canadians, Sabres, and Hurricanes this year, while only 1-3 against the Rangers. If they overcome recent injuries and the Flyers for the best record in the conference, the Caps will be facing a New York team that embarrassed them 6-0 and 7-0 already this season.

I do not know about you, but I would want all the luck and matchups I can get for the playoffs, especially after last season’s debacle. So I say, rest some starters tending injuries and get ready for the Sabres.

Virginia Spring Sports Back at it Again

2011-03-31T00:40:00.000-04:00

After uneventful football and basketball seasons, UVa’s more successful sports are now in full swing. Virginia’s baseball and tennis teams are ranked #1 in the country, while lacrosse was #2 last week.

The baseball team made national headlines this week due to Will Roberts' perfect game against George Washington, despite GW’s reporting. It was the first one in the program’s history, and the first time nationally in nine years. The Cavaliers took over the #1 ranking going into the Colonials game and have compiled a 25-2 record so far this season. After defeating then #4 Clemson and #4 Florida State five games to one in ACC competition earlier, the Wahoos travel to Blacksburg this weekend to take on the Hokies.

Meanwhile the tennis team is #1 and undefeated at 20-0. Yawn. Virginia has not been out of the top #2 since February 2009, over 82 matches ago. In fact, the Cavs have only lost 15 out of 149 games this season. Only six more ACC matches remain until postseason play begins.

As for the lacrosse team, it seems to be a down year for them, since they already lost two games this season. Even though the Hoos only lost by a combined three goals to Syracuse and Johns Hopkins on the road, they slipped to #6 this past week. It is the first time UVa has dropped out of the top #5 in over three seasons. The Cavaliers start their three game ACC schedule this week against Maryland at Scott Stadium.

These teams also had hot starts last year which I wrote about, but then choked in the playoffs, which I unfortunately also noted. I hope these teams reverse these trends this year.

Ode to Gus Johnson

2011-03-21T23:10:00.000-04:00

After watching replays of George Mason’s thrilling finish over Villanova last week, I realized why there was heightened excitement compared to other games last weekend. The most underrated play by play announcer in sports today was calling the game, Gus Johnson. While he is not a household name, like Al Michaels or Marv Albert, and you would not recognize him walking down the street, like John Madden or Charles Barkley, you would recognize his voice.

His exciting style turns any bucket into a game winner, while monotone Joe Buck could turn a World Series winning homerun into a snoozefest. While Johnson is noted mostly for his NCAA basketball coverage for CBS, he also announces NFL games including these memorable endings recently:

Last year, he was the voice of the Madden videogame and now even has a soundboard for his famous catch phrases. I want him around announcing my life… “Here comes the email, count it!” “The laundry is done, unbelievable!”

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

2011-03-16T01:15:00.000-04:00

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

Beware of Caps Winning Streaks

2011-03-15T11:42:00.000-04:00

After earlier struggles this year, including an eight game losing streak in December, the Capitals seem to have righted the ship with an eight game winning streak. They are back in first place in the division and one point away from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, looks can be deceiving.

In their eight game winning streak, six games were at home against teams with a combined winning percentage of .438. If the season ended today, only two of the eight teams would be in the playoffs. In addition, only one of the games was decided by more than one goal, against the team with worst record in the league.

The scarier part is that the next six games are all on the road against tougher competition. These teams have a combined .521 percentage and four of the six are playoff teams. One of the non-playoff teams is red hot New Jersey Devils, which has won 22 of its last 27 games.

Sure, teams will have ups and downs during the season, but this is strikingly similar to last season. Around this point last season, Washington rattled off 14 wins in a row, moving into first place. Only six of the 14 were playoff teams for a record of .470 and nine of the games were at the Verizon Center. Then the Caps promptly dropped three in a row, on the road, to teams with a .500 winning percentage.

Still not scared? The team that snapped the winning streak last season and the team Washington plays tonight are the same…the Canadians, and we all know how that ended up last year.

Defense wins Championships for the Caps?

2011-03-04T00:34:00.000-05:00

As the NHL regular season winds down, this year's Capitals team is trying to reverse its postseason fortunes with a new approach. In the past three seasons, Washington’s run and gun style of play has been entertaining, but come playoff time has been lacking the experience and tough defense to advance. Even without drastic roster or coaching changes, there seem to be more and more 1-0 defensive struggle games this season. The stats this year surprisingly show that Boudreau is actually implementing this philosophy.

· In 2008, the Caps were 8^th in the league in goals per game, then third and first last year. This year, they have fallen to 22^nd at 2.63.

· On the other hand, Washington’s goals against were 18^th, 19^th, and 16^th. Now at 2.45 goals per game, their re-dedicated defense ranks 7^th in the league.

· Mirroring these stats, the Capitals went from 6^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd in shots to 12^thnow, and 9^th, 13^th, and 18^th in shots against to back to 9^th again.

· Even the goaltending has improved. With two relative rookies in the net this year, the Caps rank 8^th in the league at .916 save %, a far cry from the days of Jose “Three or More” and other veterans at 14^th, 21^st, and 24^th the past three seasons.

· Meanwhile the special teams have drastically changed as well. Going from 25^th in the league in penalty killing last year to 5^th place (85.3%) this year is commendable. However, the Caps are only 25^th (16.1%) in power play percentage this season, after leading the NHL last year, which is probably not what Boudreau had in mind.

How do these stats reflect in wins? Well, the past three seasons they were 13^th, 4^th, and 1^st in standings and were out of the playoffs in the 1^st, 2^nd,and 1^st round. This season the Capitals are only 8^th in the standings, and are probably not going to win their division unlike the previous three years. As for the playoffs this year …

Cavs and Wizards Epic Fail Fest is Almost Upon Us

2011-02-08T23:30:00.000-05:00

If things remain true to form, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards will play in one of the most historically awful NBA games ever. The Cavs set the record for most losses in one season a couple days ago, and just lost their 25^th straight game overall. Cleveland broke the 28 year old record held by of course, the Cavaliers. On Sunday, they host the Wizards, which have lost all 25 of their road games, four losses away from the NBA record. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.

As mentioned earlier, I was prepared for the Cavaliers to struggle, but one win since November 27^th is unfathomable. I know they have had injuries, but how can you have Christian Eyenga, JJ Hickson, Ramon Sessions, and Anthony Parker in your starting five and expect to compete. Two more losses and it will be the longest losing streak in any professional sport. They are even four and a half games behind the second worst team in the league.

Meanwhile in the nation’s capital, the Wizards have lost eight straight overall on top of their road game futility. In contrast to their struggles away from home, they have a winning record at the Verizon Center, which seven teams cannot claim. Luckily, John Wall has not missed a game since Christmas and Nick Young’s fro is summoning its Samson-like powers with 23 points a game in his last 15. Also, center JaVale McGee will be the first Wizard to compete in the Slam Dunk Contest. Maybe they need to change their airplane, wake-up calls, and room service in order to change their course, since they actually have hope.

In the meantime, Cleveland has two home games before NBA’s version of the Toilet Bowl, against the struggling Detroit Pistons and Blake Griffin’s LA Clippers. If they predictably lose those games, maybe the tickets going for two dollars will go through the roof, and TNT and ESPN will clear their schedules so more viewers than the record-breaking Super Bowl can view this historic debacle.

Super Bowl College Quarterbacks?

2011-01-31T21:51:00.000-05:00

Leading up to Super Bowl Sunday obviously a lot of attention this week will be focused on the two star quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Oddly enough, their respective alma maters are not big college football powerhouses. Big Ben went to Miami of Ohio, in the non-BCS MAC, while Rodgers graduated from Cal, which is in the more heralded PAC-10, but is not considering a football factory like USC. This got me thinking, how do other Super Bowl quarterbacks and college programs compare?

Of the 90 Super Bowl quarterback starts, only 41 different schools are represented. Stanford and Notre Dame lead the way with seven, helped by five from Elway and four from Montana. Four programs share the tie for three different quarterbacks, with Alabama (Namath, Starr, Stabler), Purdue (Dawson, Greise, Brees), and Notre Dame (Montana, Lamonica, Theismann) looking more impressive than Cal (Kapp, Morton, Rodgers). Roethlisberger’s Miami Redhawks would be considered a lot more well known than some of the schools mentioned during the starting lineups. I have still barely heard of the following schools, and I just looked them up; Alcorn State (McNair), Augustana (Anderson), Louisiana Tech (Bradshaw), Morehead State (Simms), Northern Iowa (Warner), Southern Mississippi (Favre), Youngstown State (Jaworski).

The more amazing stat is the lack of starting quarterback representation at the top of college football’s elite. Storied programs like Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and USC have never seen one of their Saturday heroes play on the biggest Sunday of the year. In fact, when looking at top 20 winningiest current D1 schools in history, only 10 have had a produced a Super Bowl starting quarterback. Meanwhile, #42 Purdue has six and #62 UCLA has four.

I guess you win college football games by running the ball and playing good defense instead of throwing the ball all over the field with a NFL-style quarterback. Lame.

What Really Matters When Picking a Super Bowl Champ

2011-01-21T09:21:00.000-05:00

Just like last week, I have no idea who to root for in the upcoming NFL conference championship games. All the teams remaining have won a Super Bowl before. Therefore, I must find some more categories to choose from in order to pick two teams to root for this weekend.

· The Jets still have the longest Super Bowl victory drought, appearance drought, and only one title, like the Bears, so they get all the points here. Meanwhile the Steelers have the most rings and won the most recently.

· Since they made money for me during the FFL season, I’ll cheer for the Packers’ Jennings, Jones, and Starks over Holmes and the Jets. (Actually, I cannot remember ever having a Steeler, Raven or Patriot on my team.)

· I like my teams to obey the law, so the Jets win this category since they have only had 8 arrests in the past 10 years, compared to the Bears’ 18 (blame Tank Johnson). (There is actually a website that tracks this.)

· Each victory over the Browns is a dagger to my heart, therefore I do not mind the four losses to the Bears compared to 62 to the Steelers.

· I would like a high scoring, close Super Bowl, so I would choose the Packers (388 points scored in the regular season) over the Bears (only 334) and the Jets (10.6 average game point difference) over the Steelers (12.4).

· Since all the attention will be on the quarterbacks, I should probably choose a favorite to help my decision. Even though Jay Cutler gets a tough rap while battling with diabetes, Rodgers dealt with Favre and throws TD’s to Jennings on my FFL team. While Mark Sanchez is a pretty boy who beat UVa on my birthday, no one outside of Pittsburgh will be pulling for Big Ben with his list of transgressions.

· None of these teams are “home” teams to DC, but Pittsburgh is barely closer than NYC, while Green Bay is 900 miles away.

· Being from the two most cursed cities for pro teams, I need to take the cities’ other teams into account. NY has the Yankees, while Pittsburgh has the Penguins, so they’re out, while Green Bay only has the Packers.

· New York has 8.3 million people as compared to Green Bay’s 101,000, so I’m rooting for the small town team.

· These two cheesy mascots won’t get my fanhood.

· I have to give the edge to Pittsburgh when it comes to fans though for the terrible towels, which look better than a bunch of cheeseheads. Fireman Ed and the J-E-T-S cheer is a little simple for my taste, but not as bad as the Bear’s Fight Song.

· All this writing is making me hungry, so which famous food from these cities would I take? While a NY bagel, Pittsburgh Primanti Brothers Sandwich, and Chicago deep dish pizza sound good, I’d take a bratwurst stuffed with Wisconsin cheddar anyday.

· Speaking of cheese, you have to like a team named after a cheese packing company that owned the team 90 years ago, but naming a team after the city’s main industry that embodies the character of both the team and its people is really cool. Especially since the Jets were named to be “modern”, and the Bears because football players are big. Lame.

· Lastly, while everyone is on the betting bandwagon for the Packers to win the Super Bowl (5 to 7), the Bears are the most popular team (11.5 Google results) and are the underdog to win it all (5 to 1).

After ranking all 20 categories, the Packers come out on top, followed by the Jets. Go Pack!

The “Been there, Done that” NFL Playoffs?

2011-01-13T23:53:00.001-05:00

Now that the Colts are out of the playoffs, I have no real rooting interest in the teams leftover in the divisional round. Even worse, three of my most hated teams are still alive (Ravens, Patriots and Steelers). Unlike previous seasons with the Saints and Cardinals, there is no obvious underdog, feel-good story to rally around. In fact, all eight teams remaining have been to the Super Bowl before, winning 15 of them. Granted, the Falcons and Seahawks have never won one, but they both appeared in the big game once in the past 12 seasons. This got me thinking, is this year the most “boring, teams have been there, jaded” playoffs in recent memory?

The two main factors I looked at were years since each team’s last Super Bowl appearance and last victory. For expansion teams like Atlanta and Seattle, I used their inaugural year instead of last victory, while older teams without a ring I used the year before Super Bowl I. After averaging the eight teams “droughts” for each category I compared the numbers to the last ten playoffs.

Surprisingly, this season is not the most “boring,” but in fact ranks fourth in Super Bowl appearance average and fifth in Super Bowl victory average. While seven of the eight teams this year have made a Super Bowl since a non-gray-haired Favre led the Packers to consecutive appearances, the Jets skew the numbers. New York has not returned to the big game following Joe Namath’s huge upset, some 43 seasons ago. The most “jaded” playoffs were in 2008, during the Patriots attempted perfect season, when no one noticed that the Jags and Chargers had the longest Super Bowl droughts at only 13 years. The biggest “underdog” playoffs were actually last year, in which the Vikings, Saints, Chargers, Cardinals, and Jets were all trying to overcome 40+ seasons without a Super Bowl victory.

While this year may not be the most “boring” playoffs in the past ten seasons, other interesting stats come up. Not surprisingly the Patriots lead the NFL with seven appearances in the divisional round, followed by the Colts, Steelers, and Eagles with six. Meanwhile, the six teams with zero appearances are the usual sad suspects (Browns, Lions, Bengals), expansion Texans, and the once proud Bills and Dolphins. Some teams are overrated (Cowboys and Vikings with only 2), underrated (Eagles-6 and Ravens-5) or opportunistic (Giants and Cardinals only 2).The AFC is more consistent/predictable with four of the top five teams, while also having five of the six teams with no appearances. No wonder the Browns have struggled, since two teams in their division make it this far more than half the time.

I’m curious to see what the stats will look like for the championship game round next week. All I know is that I’ll be rooting for the Falcons (45 years) over the Jets (42) in the Super Bowl.

Cleveland Cavs hit rock bottom without LeBron

2011-01-10T12:35:00.000-05:00

After last night’s 108-100 loss to the Suns, the Cavaliers have officially hit rock bottom. At 8-29, Cleveland now has the worst record in the NBA. They have lost 10 straight and 20 of 21 overall. That is only one win since November 28th! Now one of their best players, Anderson Varejao, tore a tendon and is out for the year. Even their team statistics are awful. Out of 30 teams, they are 26th in offense scoring, 23rd in defense, 29th in shooting percentage, 27th in defensive %, 24th in three point %, and 30th in defensive 3pt %. Meanwhile the attendance numbers are second highest in the league, reflecting all the disappointed fans who already bought tickets during the offseason. The team was going to predictably struggle after Lebron left, but no one imagined it would be this bad so soon. Owner Dan Gilbert might as well start trading away what’s left, since this season is done.

My second favorite team, Wizards, are not faring much better either. At 9-26, they are the second worst team in the Eastern Conference and are 0-18 on the road. Luckily Washington has their superstar already in John Wall, who unfortunately has missed 12 games due to injury contributing to their poor start.

Maybe the Cavs can draft Ohio State’s superstar freshman Jared Sullinger in next year’s draft, since taking the home town hero worked out so well last time.

Its Bowl Season!

2010-12-09T01:15:00.000-05:00

While all the attention will be on the BCS Championship game between undefeated Auburn and Oregon, I will be focusing on two of the more unheralded bowls. No, it does not involve UVA, which will be playing in the “Spring” Bowl. Nor does it involve Ohio State, which despite only one loss will only be playing in the Sugar Bowl. My attention will be on two bowls with a combined 13 years of history between all unranked teams.

First, my only cousin’s Miami of Ohio team faces off against Middle Tennessee State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. The Redhawks completed an incredible worst to first turnaround by winning the MAC championship game last week. Coach of the year hopeful Mike Haywood improved his squad by eight games, going 7-1 in the conference. Miami has reeled off five victories in a row, four of which on the road. Meanwhile the Blue Raiders are only 6-6 in the Sun Belt, but have better statistical rankings than the Red Hawks. Formerly called the GMAC Bowl, the game takes place in Mobile on January 6^th on ESPN. Despite being the 34^th ranked bowl game, it looks like there will be some fun activities planned, and I’m sure there will be plenty of Danica Patrick commercials on TV

Meanwhile eight days earlier in DC, Maryland and East Carolina face off in the Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman. My girlfriend and her company help manage the event, so maybe I’ll hang out with John Wall doing his dance while punching Dwight Howard for beating the Cavs. Now with a different major sponsor, hopefully there will be some sweet flyovers or cannon shots after each touchdown. RFK will be the site of a possible shootout since the 6-6 Pirates are 112^th in defense and 12^th in offense while the Terps are 42^nd or better in both. Strangely enough Maryland had the second biggest turnaround in the nation to Miami. Terps are bitter they are going to a lower seeded ACC bowl, but if you cannot attend a bowl game a couple metro stops from your campus, you do not deserve to play in warm weather. I’ll be going just to boo the Twerps the whole time.

What about the other bowls? Try naming all 35 of them first.