Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips

When looking at the last eight NCAA tournaments mathematically, there are some striking trends.

In the first round:

#12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44%

22% of #4 seeds go down

Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game

In the second round:

More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10)

Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset

Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner

Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4

Sweet 16 round:

78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight

On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds

Elite Eight round:

Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four

44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four

#2 seeds make it 25% of the time

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average.

Now, which teams are going to be in those spots/upsets? Good luck!

1 comment:

  1. Solid, especially the stuff about the elite 8. Amazing how many highly seeded teams people will put in the elite 8. Chalk wins office pools.