Should the Caps Want the #1 Seed?

Ever since their nine game winning streak brought them to the top of the conference standings, the Capitals have been chasing the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the East. The top team gets the number one seed in the playoffs and home field advantage. However, when looking at recent NHL playoff history, is this something Washington really wants?

In the past ten NHL playoffs, number one seeds have not fared well, especially in the East. Only two #1 seeds made the Stanley Cup Final with only one winner (Tampa Bay). The average seed in either conference to make the Finals is 3.1, which is higher than in the NFL (2.4) and NBA (2.0) during that time frame. Many things factor into this including hot goalies and more prominent home field advantage in the other sports. Oddly enough, when looking at the winners of the Stanley Cup, the NHL has the lowest average seed at 2.0 compared to 3.2 and 2.1 from the other sports. This can be attributed to the NFL playing the Super Bowl at a neutral site and the NBA Finals switching to a 2-3-2 home/away/home format.

Of course the actual matchups matter as well, which also supports a caution for the Capitals pursuit of the top spot. At the current standings, the #6 seed would be Montreal, #7 Buffalo, and #8 New York, with Carolina on the outside looking in. DC is a combined 10-3 against the Canadians, Sabres, and Hurricanes this year, while only 1-3 against the Rangers. If they overcome recent injuries and the Flyers for the best record in the conference, the Caps will be facing a New York team that embarrassed them 6-0 and 7-0 already this season.

I do not know about you, but I would want all the luck and matchups I can get for the playoffs, especially after last season’s debacle. So I say, rest some starters tending injuries and get ready for the Sabres.

Virginia Spring Sports Back at it Again

After uneventful football and basketball seasons, UVa’s more successful sports are now in full swing. Virginia’s baseball and tennis teams are ranked #1 in the country, while lacrosse was #2 last week.

The baseball team made national headlines this week due to Will Roberts' perfect game against George Washington, despite GW’s reporting. It was the first one in the program’s history, and the first time nationally in nine years. The Cavaliers took over the #1 ranking going into the Colonials game and have compiled a 25-2 record so far this season. After defeating then #4 Clemson and #4 Florida State five games to one in ACC competition earlier, the Wahoos travel to Blacksburg this weekend to take on the Hokies.

Meanwhile the tennis team is #1 and undefeated at 20-0. Yawn. Virginia has not been out of the top #2 since February 2009, over 82 matches ago. In fact, the Cavs have only lost 15 out of 149 games this season. Only six more ACC matches remain until postseason play begins.

As for the lacrosse team, it seems to be a down year for them, since they already lost two games this season. Even though the Hoos only lost by a combined three goals to Syracuse and Johns Hopkins on the road, they slipped to #6 this past week. It is the first time UVa has dropped out of the top #5 in over three seasons. The Cavaliers start their three game ACC schedule this week against Maryland at Scott Stadium.

These teams also had hot starts last year which I wrote about, but then choked in the playoffs, which I unfortunately also noted. I hope these teams reverse these trends this year.

Ode to Gus Johnson

After watching replays of George Mason’s thrilling finish over Villanova last week, I realized why there was heightened excitement compared to other games last weekend. The most underrated play by play announcer in sports today was calling the game, Gus Johnson. While he is not a household name, like Al Michaels or Marv Albert, and you would not recognize him walking down the street, like John Madden or Charles Barkley, you would recognize his voice.

His exciting style turns any bucket into a game winner, while monotone Joe Buck could turn a World Series winning homerun into a snoozefest. While Johnson is noted mostly for his NCAA basketball coverage for CBS, he also announces NFL games including these memorable endings recently:

Last year, he was the voice of the Madden videogame and now even has a soundboard for his famous catch phrases. I want him around announcing my life… “Here comes the email, count it!” “The laundry is done, unbelievable!”

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

Beware of Caps Winning Streaks

After earlier struggles this year, including an eight game losing streak in December, the Capitals seem to have righted the ship with an eight game winning streak. They are back in first place in the division and one point away from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, looks can be deceiving.

In their eight game winning streak, six games were at home against teams with a combined winning percentage of .438. If the season ended today, only two of the eight teams would be in the playoffs. In addition, only one of the games was decided by more than one goal, against the team with worst record in the league.

The scarier part is that the next six games are all on the road against tougher competition. These teams have a combined .521 percentage and four of the six are playoff teams. One of the non-playoff teams is red hot New Jersey Devils, which has won 22 of its last 27 games.

Sure, teams will have ups and downs during the season, but this is strikingly similar to last season. Around this point last season, Washington rattled off 14 wins in a row, moving into first place. Only six of the 14 were playoff teams for a record of .470 and nine of the games were at the Verizon Center. Then the Caps promptly dropped three in a row, on the road, to teams with a .500 winning percentage.

Still not scared? The team that snapped the winning streak last season and the team Washington plays tonight are the same…the Canadians, and we all know how that ended up last year.

Defense wins Championships for the Caps?

As the NHL regular season winds down, this year's Capitals team is trying to reverse its postseason fortunes with a new approach. In the past three seasons, Washington’s run and gun style of play has been entertaining, but come playoff time has been lacking the experience and tough defense to advance. Even without drastic roster or coaching changes, there seem to be more and more 1-0 defensive struggle games this season. The stats this year surprisingly show that Boudreau is actually implementing this philosophy.

· In 2008, the Caps were 8^th in the league in goals per game, then third and first last year. This year, they have fallen to 22^nd at 2.63.

· On the other hand, Washington’s goals against were 18^th, 19^th, and 16^th. Now at 2.45 goals per game, their re-dedicated defense ranks 7^th in the league.

· Mirroring these stats, the Capitals went from 6^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd in shots to 12^th now, and 9^th, 13^th, and 18^th in shots against to back to 9^th again.

· Even the goaltending has improved. With two relative rookies in the net this year, the Caps rank 8^th in the league at .916 save %, a far cry from the days of Jose “Three or More” and other veterans at 14^th, 21^st, and 24^th the past three seasons.

· Meanwhile the special teams have drastically changed as well. Going from 25^th in the league in penalty killing last year to 5^th place (85.3%) this year is commendable. However, the Caps are only 25^th (16.1%) in power play percentage this season, after leading the NHL last year, which is probably not what Boudreau had in mind.

How do these stats reflect in wins? Well, the past three seasons they were 13^th, 4^th, and 1^st in standings and were out of the playoffs in the 1^st, 2^nd, and 1^st round. This season the Capitals are only 8^th in the standings, and are probably not going to win their division unlike the previous three years. As for the playoffs this year …

Cavs and Wizards Epic Fail Fest is Almost Upon Us

If things remain true to form, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Washington Wizards will play in one of the most historically awful NBA games ever. The Cavs set the record for most losses in one season a couple days ago, and just lost their 25^th straight game overall. Cleveland broke the 28 year old record held by of course, the Cavaliers. On Sunday, they host the Wizards, which have lost all 25 of their road games, four losses away from the NBA record. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.

As mentioned earlier, I was prepared for the Cavaliers to struggle, but one win since November 27^th is unfathomable. I know they have had injuries, but how can you have Christian Eyenga, JJ Hickson, Ramon Sessions, and Anthony Parker in your starting five and expect to compete. Two more losses and it will be the longest losing streak in any professional sport. They are even four and a half games behind the second worst team in the league.

Meanwhile in the nation’s capital, the Wizards have lost eight straight overall on top of their road game futility. In contrast to their struggles away from home, they have a winning record at the Verizon Center, which seven teams cannot claim. Luckily, John Wall has not missed a game since Christmas and Nick Young’s fro is summoning its Samson-like powers with 23 points a game in his last 15. Also, center JaVale McGee will be the first Wizard to compete in the Slam Dunk Contest. Maybe they need to change their airplane, wake-up calls, and room service in order to change their course, since they actually have hope.

In the meantime, Cleveland has two home games before NBA’s version of the Toilet Bowl, against the struggling Detroit Pistons and Blake Griffin’s LA Clippers. If they predictably lose those games, maybe the tickets going for two dollars will go through the roof, and TNT and ESPN will clear their schedules so more viewers than the record-breaking Super Bowl can view this historic debacle.

Super Bowl College Quarterbacks?

Leading up to Super Bowl Sunday obviously a lot of attention this week will be focused on the two star quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Oddly enough, their respective alma maters are not big college football powerhouses. Big Ben went to Miami of Ohio, in the non-BCS MAC, while Rodgers graduated from Cal, which is in the more heralded PAC-10, but is not considering a football factory like USC. This got me thinking, how do other Super Bowl quarterbacks and college programs compare?

Of the 90 Super Bowl quarterback starts, only 41 different schools are represented. Stanford and Notre Dame lead the way with seven, helped by five from Elway and four from Montana. Four programs share the tie for three different quarterbacks, with Alabama (Namath, Starr, Stabler), Purdue (Dawson, Greise, Brees), and Notre Dame (Montana, Lamonica, Theismann) looking more impressive than Cal (Kapp, Morton, Rodgers). Roethlisberger’s Miami Redhawks would be considered a lot more well known than some of the schools mentioned during the starting lineups. I have still barely heard of the following schools, and I just looked them up; Alcorn State (McNair), Augustana (Anderson), Louisiana Tech (Bradshaw), Morehead State (Simms), Northern Iowa (Warner), Southern Mississippi (Favre), Youngstown State (Jaworski).

The more amazing stat is the lack of starting quarterback representation at the top of college football’s elite. Storied programs like Texas, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and USC have never seen one of their Saturday heroes play on the biggest Sunday of the year. In fact, when looking at top 20 winningiest current D1 schools in history, only 10 have had a produced a Super Bowl starting quarterback. Meanwhile, #42 Purdue has six and #62 UCLA has four.

I guess you win college football games by running the ball and playing good defense instead of throwing the ball all over the field with a NFL-style quarterback. Lame.

What Really Matters When Picking a Super Bowl Champ

Just like last week, I have no idea who to root for in the upcoming NFL conference championship games. All the teams remaining have won a Super Bowl before. Therefore, I must find some more categories to choose from in order to pick two teams to root for this weekend.

· The Jets still have the longest Super Bowl victory drought, appearance drought, and only one title, like the Bears, so they get all the points here. Meanwhile the Steelers have the most rings and won the most recently.

· Since they made money for me during the FFL season, I’ll cheer for the Packers’ Jennings, Jones, and Starks over Holmes and the Jets. (Actually, I cannot remember ever having a Steeler, Raven or Patriot on my team.)

· I like my teams to obey the law, so the Jets win this category since they have only had 8 arrests in the past 10 years, compared to the Bears’ 18 (blame Tank Johnson). (There is actually a website that tracks this.)

· Each victory over the Browns is a dagger to my heart, therefore I do not mind the four losses to the Bears compared to 62 to the Steelers.

· I would like a high scoring, close Super Bowl, so I would choose the Packers (388 points scored in the regular season) over the Bears (only 334) and the Jets (10.6 average game point difference) over the Steelers (12.4).

· Since all the attention will be on the quarterbacks, I should probably choose a favorite to help my decision. Even though Jay Cutler gets a tough rap while battling with diabetes, Rodgers dealt with Favre and throws TD’s to Jennings on my FFL team. While Mark Sanchez is a pretty boy who beat UVa on my birthday, no one outside of Pittsburgh will be pulling for Big Ben with his list of transgressions.

· None of these teams are “home” teams to DC, but Pittsburgh is barely closer than NYC, while Green Bay is 900 miles away.

· Being from the two most cursed cities for pro teams, I need to take the cities’ other teams into account. NY has the Yankees, while Pittsburgh has the Penguins, so they’re out, while Green Bay only has the Packers.

· New York has 8.3 million people as compared to Green Bay’s 101,000, so I’m rooting for the small town team.

· These two cheesy mascots won’t get my fanhood.

· I have to give the edge to Pittsburgh when it comes to fans though for the terrible towels, which look better than a bunch of cheeseheads. Fireman Ed and the J-E-T-S cheer is a little simple for my taste, but not as bad as the Bear’s Fight Song.

· All this writing is making me hungry, so which famous food from these cities would I take? While a NY bagel, Pittsburgh Primanti Brothers Sandwich, and Chicago deep dish pizza sound good, I’d take a bratwurst stuffed with Wisconsin cheddar anyday.

· Speaking of cheese, you have to like a team named after a cheese packing company that owned the team 90 years ago, but naming a team after the city’s main industry that embodies the character of both the team and its people is really cool. Especially since the Jets were named to be “modern”, and the Bears because football players are big. Lame.

· Lastly, while everyone is on the betting bandwagon for the Packers to win the Super Bowl (5 to 7), the Bears are the most popular team (11.5 Google results) and are the underdog to win it all (5 to 1).

After ranking all 20 categories, the Packers come out on top, followed by the Jets. Go Pack!

The “Been there, Done that” NFL Playoffs?

Now that the Colts are out of the playoffs, I have no real rooting interest in the teams leftover in the divisional round. Even worse, three of my most hated teams are still alive (Ravens, Patriots and Steelers). Unlike previous seasons with the Saints and Cardinals, there is no obvious underdog, feel-good story to rally around. In fact, all eight teams remaining have been to the Super Bowl before, winning 15 of them. Granted, the Falcons and Seahawks have never won one, but they both appeared in the big game once in the past 12 seasons. This got me thinking, is this year the most “boring, teams have been there, jaded” playoffs in recent memory?

The two main factors I looked at were years since each team’s last Super Bowl appearance and last victory. For expansion teams like Atlanta and Seattle, I used their inaugural year instead of last victory, while older teams without a ring I used the year before Super Bowl I. After averaging the eight teams “droughts” for each category I compared the numbers to the last ten playoffs.

Surprisingly, this season is not the most “boring,” but in fact ranks fourth in Super Bowl appearance average and fifth in Super Bowl victory average. While seven of the eight teams this year have made a Super Bowl since a non-gray-haired Favre led the Packers to consecutive appearances, the Jets skew the numbers. New York has not returned to the big game following Joe Namath’s huge upset, some 43 seasons ago. The most “jaded” playoffs were in 2008, during the Patriots attempted perfect season, when no one noticed that the Jags and Chargers had the longest Super Bowl droughts at only 13 years. The biggest “underdog” playoffs were actually last year, in which the Vikings, Saints, Chargers, Cardinals, and Jets were all trying to overcome 40+ seasons without a Super Bowl victory.

While this year may not be the most “boring” playoffs in the past ten seasons, other interesting stats come up. Not surprisingly the Patriots lead the NFL with seven appearances in the divisional round, followed by the Colts, Steelers, and Eagles with six. Meanwhile, the six teams with zero appearances are the usual sad suspects (Browns, Lions, Bengals), expansion Texans, and the once proud Bills and Dolphins. Some teams are overrated (Cowboys and Vikings with only 2), underrated (Eagles-6 and Ravens-5) or opportunistic (Giants and Cardinals only 2).The AFC is more consistent/predictable with four of the top five teams, while also having five of the six teams with no appearances. No wonder the Browns have struggled, since two teams in their division make it this far more than half the time.

I’m curious to see what the stats will look like for the championship game round next week. All I know is that I’ll be rooting for the Falcons (45 years) over the Jets (42) in the Super Bowl.