Tebow!

Now that I’ve gotten your attention, here are some interesting facts and absurd stories accompanying Tebow Mania.

• Everyone knows he’s gone 7-1, but his stats (10 passing tds, 2 ints, 517 rushing yards, 3 rushing tds) compare favorably to other hot QBs, Rodgers (8-0, 25 tds, 4 ints), Brady (6-2, 19, 5), Big Ben (7-1, 13, 5) and Brees (6-2, 20, 6).
• Tebow’s stats through three quarters: 38% completion, 4.7 yards an attempt, 5 passing tds, 301 rushing yards, 1 rushing td. In the 4^th q/OT: 61%, 8.9 yards an attempt, 6 passing tds, 216 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds.
• Tebowing (pictured above) is now an official word.
• Tebow’s pastor says they are winning because God is on their side.
• You can get Tebow Christmas cards on ebay.
• He is getting MVP consideration.
• “Tim Tebow” gets 194 million Google hits, compared to 11 million for undefeated Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, 11 million for injured Peyton Manning, 48 mil for Lebron James, and 68 mil for Tiger Woods. At least the other Golden Boy Tom Brady is almost half, at 81 million.
• Speaking of Brady, the Patriots are the next team to try to stop Tebow Time. New England has the worst ranked defense in the league, so if the Broncos can somehow contain the Patriot offense, Denver fans’ prayers could continue to be answered.
• Lastly, no one seems to have noticed that the Packers are undefeated at 13-0 while the Colts are 0-13. Hello!

Miami of Ohio Football Adventure

This past week I got the opportunity to see my only cousin play D-1 football in person. As I have mentioned before in this blog, my cousin, Brad Bednar, is the starting left tackle for the Miami of Ohio Redhawks. After two seasons at center, he was moved to left tackle for his junior year for the defending MAC champs. Before the game I was able to bother him with pictures during warm-ups and then took videos during the action against Temple in Philadelphia:

It turned out to be an entertaining game as Miami mounted a fourth quarter comeback that fell just short. Miami WR Nick Harwell set school records for receptions and yards as the RedHawks tried to thwart the Owls intense pass rush. Despite the loss, Miami still has a chance to repeat as MAC champions and I had a great time supporting my cousin.

On a side note, I believe I’ve found college fans worse than Maryland. Despite being a campus of 37k, only a couple hundred Temple students made the 30 minute subway ride to the game. Notice the crowd in this picture. That’s roughly one fan for every 100 students. Compare that to UVa’s 10k student section for 20k students. Not showing up is one thing, but how they acted is what made it worse. After Miami scored a touchdown to make the game closer, half of their band came over to the Miami family section and began to play their fight song. After the Owls sealed the game a dozen students came over and started taunting the RedHawk section as well. Some of the students even had signs saying they should be in the Big East. They were kicked out of the Big East five years ago for poor attendance and a dismal record! Maybe it’s something in the water in Philly.

Boston Sports Adventure

This past weekend, I visited Boston for the first time with my girlfriend Erryn, and happened to visit several sports related sites. The first day, we toured the campus of Boston College including the 2010 and 2008 NCAA champion hockey team’s arena as it was being prepared for a game.

Next we were able to walk on the football field, where the Eagles had just lost the night before in a rout by Florida State. Hence, they were running punishment laps.

Later in the weekend, we toured the oldest baseball park in the country, Fenway Park. While the sunny skies, helicopter fly over, and green monster were cool,

the fact that a groundskeeper has to manually change the NL scores on the field between innings and seeing the green monster seats hang over the street were the highlights.

The main event of the weekend was the Giants-Patriots game on Sunday for which we had suite tickets. Once again, the moonlit night, free food, and militia gun-firing were great,

but seeing Brady walk off his own field a loser for the first time in years was extra special.

As a side note, while it seemed like there were statues on every block for colonial historical figures, there were plenty of sports ones as well.

Glad I got to see at least one Manning take the field this season!

Pardon the Interruption, but PTI Turned 10 Years Old

On Monday, my favorite sports television show, Pardon the Interruption, or PTI, marked its 10 year anniversary. In case you do not DVR it daily, the sports debate show airs daily on ESPN featuring two former Washington Post sports columnists Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. The show is especially significant to me since I grew up reading columns by these two while eating my breakfast cereal and interned at their studio for a summer, sitting in on tapings. While I consider myself the show’s “first” fan, I think the guest in the clip below might disagree.

UVA Finishes a Perfect Day with an Upset

For the first time in several seasons I did not purchase UVA season tickets, but chose to come to just a handful of key games. Undefeated #12 Georgia Tech and a sunny fall day seemed like the perfect time for a tailgate as well. While the Yellow Jackets came in touting an option offense that ran all over the Hoos in previous seasons, Virginia had the bye week to prepare for the gimmick. After jumping out to a 14-0 lead, the Cavaliers let the Rambling Wreck back in the game with a missed field goal and pick six. Then Coach London figured out what VT Coach Beamer had enjoyed for years, beating up on an Al Groh coached defense. The Hoos gave the Yellow Jackets and their former coach a taste of their own medicine by running for their highest total in seven seasons, while holding them to their lowest offensive output in 20 games. UVA was even able to run out the last six minutes of the game as students ran out onto the field:

Now that Virginia is 4-2, they are only two wins away from bowl eligibility and luckily have home games coming up against NC State and Duke. Heck, they even received three votes in the AP poll on Sunday, capping a great weekend.

NFL Teams' Best and Worst Starts Since...

There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Detroit Lions are off to their best start since 1956 and the Colts are off to their worst since 1997. This got me to thinking, how remarkable have these seasons been in comparison to other teams' starts? Is the NFL that consistent that if a team starts off really hot or cold, it is history making? I looked at the current standings and compared them to when the last time the team had that surprisingly few or high number of wins through 4-5 games (some teams have had byes already). Here is the graph with analysis afterwards:

• Detroit is having their best season in 55 years.
• Green Bay has not been 5-0 in 46 years as well.
• Indy, Denver, and Philly have not started this poorly since the late 90's.
• The other feel good stories of the season, 49ers and Raiders, are justified in their press since it has been nine seasons since they've had this good a record through five games.

While those seven teams are the extremes, the other 25 are more predictable:

• Seven teams have the same exact record at this point last year. (The Bucs, Texans, and Giants had playoff aspirations going into this year and have the same record this point last year which they just missed the playoffs. For all the excitement and hope Cam Newton has brought the Panthers, they are 1-4 just like last year.)
  
• Another seven have the same disappointment or optimism as two seasons ago. (Mediocre Dallas was also at 2-2 two years ago when they made the playoffs.)
  
• Washington and Buffalo are on top of their divisions, but both had the same great start only three years ago when they each missed the playoffs.
• Half the league's teams were just as good or just as bad at this point within the past three seasons.
  

I'm sure week 10 or other years might show differently, but this snapshot shows how remarkably consistent NFL teams are. Therefore, do not panic or join the bandwagon for your favorite team just yet, because your team is likely to be just where it was a couple years ago anyways.

ACC Leading the Charge to Super Conferences

Now that Pittsburgh and Syracuse have officially bolted from the Big East for the ACC, the race to the four super conferences has begun. The Atlantic Coast Conference is now the first team with over 12 football teams in their conference and will most likely add two more schools to create two eight team divisions. Which two teams will they add and how will the other conferences react?

Most of the rumors at this point focus on UConn as the next school to jump ship to the ACC, which would help the football/basketball balance. If the Huskies do join the conference, then the past three NCAA basketball champions and eight of the past eleven would reside in either the Atlantic or Coastal Division. Imagine matchups like Duke/UConn, UNC/Syracuse, Maryland/Pittsburgh several times each year. Meanwhile, the 16^th team is still a mystery. Rumors include current Big East members Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati, as well as long shot Big 12 powerhouse Texas.

In 2005, the ACC started the current realignment when they poached Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami from the Big East. Then other conferences followed suit over the past couple years to reach 12 teams and the lucrative conference championship games. The ACC expansion this week is the first domino to fall in what is going to be a nationwide realignment as four conferences will form 16 team super conferences. This link lists the latest realignment rumors as most people predict the Big East and Big 12 will go under, leaving the Pac-16, Big 16 (Former Big 10), SEC, and ACC standing.

While the impression that these university presidents and conference commissioners are chasing money for mostly football programs is disturbing, the geographical outcome is comical. This year Pacific 12 teams have to travel over the Rockies for the first time to play divisional games against Colorado and Utah. Texas Christian is already slated to play in the Big East next year in games possibly at Connecticut and South Florida. If Oklahoma leaves the crumbling Big 12 to the Pac-16, they will be 1,400 miles from the Pacific, while Texas would be 1,000 miles to the nearest Atlantic Coast if they join the ACC.

Even the four major television networks are getting in on the realignment action. The SEC and CBS have been partners for the past 15 years, while last year the ACC inked a major deal with ABC/ESPN and the PAC-12 is now with FOX. If Notre Dame ever gets off their high horse and joins the Big 16, guess which major broadcast network will still air their games?

Maybe these conferences are trying to form these four super conferences to create a four team playoff and quash the BCS. Imagine the winner of the Pac-16 championship game playing the winner of the Big 16 in the traditional Rose Bowl matchup. Meanwhile the winners of the ACC and SEC could face off in a Southeastern venue, like the Georgia Dome or Orange Bowl. Then the winners of those two games play weeks later in a title game in a more centralized location like the Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, JerryWorld, etc.

So maybe after all this chaos we could end up with 64 teams playing in a season to get down to eight elite teams playing in conference championship games, with a chance to be the final four teams remaining, culminating in a championship game not decided by voters or computers. Hmm, imagine a NCAA sport doing that?

Three Defensive Plays Determine the Outcome for Browns, Redskins, and Cavs Games This Week

During the first week of the NFL season, and first week of D1 play for UVA, three remarkable defensive plays changed the outcome of my favorite teams’ games.

After redeeming themselves last week by defeating William and Mary in the season opener, Virginia travelled to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers. After going up 23-3 in the third quarter, the Cavaliers gave up 28 unanswered points to a program that has only been to one bowl game in 18 seasons. The Hoos answered with a 15 play drive to tie the game at 31-31 with under two minutes left. After a couple of ineffective plays, IU lined up for a third down and five on their own 23 with only a half a minute until overtime: (skip to the :36 mark):

Senior defensive end Cam Johnson comes around the end and not only sacks the QB, but strips the football and recovers the fumble with one hand…all before hitting the ground! A couple plays later, Robert Randolph hits a 23 yard FG with seconds left. Victory!

"In the past, we probably would have given up or tucked and said, 'Oh, what the heck.' But these guys just kept on playing,” Coach Mike London said. “And in the end we just made more plays than they made, and the play that Cam Johnson made was unbelievable."

Meanwhile on Sunday, the Browns opened their season at home against a similarly underdog opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. Up 17-13 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland had already knocked out the Bengals starting QB and were a couple stops or turnover away from sealing the victory. With under five minutes left, Cincinnati put together a drive to move into Browns’ territory but were facing a third down and eleven (right click on picture to open play in new window):

Backup QB Bruce Gradkowski quick snaps the ball and finds rookie WR AJ Green wide open for his first NFL reception for a 41 yard score. Not only was the defense caught off guard, but they had 12 men on the field as well! Stunned by the sudden deficit, the Cleveland offense responded with 25 yards, seven incompletions and an interception on their final three drives combined as the Bengals offense later sealed the win with a 39 yard touchdown run.

“They caught the whole organization asleep on that one,” linebacker Scott Fujita said Monday. “We were all responsible,” coach Pat Shurmur said. “Which includes me.”

Later in the afternoon, the Redskins faced bitter rival New York Giants, which had won the previous six meetings. In a back and forth matchup, the teams came out of the locker room at half time tied 14-14 and the Giants started with the ball. New York quickly faced a third down and ten from the shadow of their own goal line minutes into the second half:

Rookie defensive end Ryan Kerrigan avoids the chop block by the right tackle and picks off Eli Manning’s quick screen attempt and rumbles into the end zone breaking the tie. While there was still almost a full half remaining in the game, the defensive touchdown set the tone for the rest of the game. Washington’s defense caused four sacks and three 3-and-outs, while only allowing four New York first downs and 93 yards for the rest of the half, clinching a 28-14 victory.

“He has great awareness for a big guy,” linebacker Brian Orakpo said of Kerrigan. “He made a great play, got to score a touchdown, and that’s all she wrote.”

Three separate third down defensive plays determined the outcome of my three favorite teams this weekend. While I hope Cam Johnson and Ryan Kerrigan’s performances are a glimpse of more things to come this season, first year Browns head coach Pat Shurmur better learn fast before the schedule gets tougher later in the season.

Quotes and Further Reading:

Cam Johnson Saves the Day for Virginia

Browns Regroup After Snap Blunder

Washington Rookie Ryan Kerrigan Breaks the Game Open

Peyton’s Not Manning Up

This Sunday, Peyton Manning will miss the opener against Houston with a neck injury, which would not normally be a big deal. However, the four time MVP has not missed his last 228 starts over a 13 year span. To put the streak into perspective, here are some interesting stats about when the streak started on September 6^th, 1998:

• The BCS was in its first season as well
• Michael Jordan was still on the Bulls
• The Monica Lewinsky/Bill Clinton scandal was in full swing
• 9/11 was still 3 years away
• Armageddon and There’s Something About Mary were the top movies
• AOL 4.0 was king, while Google and Facebook were years away
• “My Heart Will Go On” was the top song
• Seinfeld had just ended 4 months earlier
• The (new) Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Washington Nationals, Oklahoma City Thunder, Nashville Predators, Atlanta Thrashers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, and Charlotte Bobcats did not exist yet
• His younger brother, Super Bowl MVP Eli, was still in high school, and now has the longest streak for quarterbacks
• Colt McCoy, his replacement on my Fantasy Football team, was only 12

But the Colts need not to worry, since Peyton’s temporary replacement, Kerry Collins, was already in the league three seasons and was waived by Carolina when the streak started. Yikes.

The Unsung Brown Joe Thomas Gets His Due

Finally, the Browns were able to do something right. This morning, Cleveland extended Left Tackle Joe Thomas’s contract for seven years, $84 million. Why is spending $44 million guaranteed on a lineman a great move? Only because Thomas has made the Pro Bowl in each of his four seasons, and first team All-Pro twice already. He was voted the top left tackle in the league, and has never missed a start. The Browns now have the anchor of their line and protector of their quarterback locked down for another seven seasons.

While the Browns first round draft futility has been discussed before on this blog, Thomas’s success so far shines a new light on it. He has made four Pro Bowls already while the previous 14 players Cleveland drafted his year or earlier have a combined two. Even the last 23 only have a combined four All-Pro selections, compared to Thomas’s three (two first team, one second team). You have to go all the way back to the 1978 draft class of Clay Matthews Jr and Ozzie Newsome to find a comparably solid first round draft selection, and Clay Matthews III is now in the league!

Who’s ready for some FFL? A case study of Wide Receivers vs Running Backs in Keeper Leagues

Now that preseason games are starting, there is no better time to talk about Fantasy Football. The other day, I received encouraging word that one of my players, Terrell Owens, might be 100% recovered from his torn ACL he injured earlier this spring. Despite TO’s on and off the field detrimental antics to his teammates, he has actually been an outstanding and consistent fantasy player. In his 15 year career he has scored at least 50 fantasy points 14 times, and was top ten in wide receiver scoring in ten of those seasons. Likewise, other Hall of Fame bound receivers, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, had similar productive careers. This got me to thinking, how do running backs compare? Do they have as long or as consistent careers as receivers? I looked at fantasy scoring in the past ten seasons, and the career paths of the top WR and RB’s, and noticed some interesting trends:

• Of the top ten overall scorers at both positions in the past decade, there were 97 50 pts+ seasons for WR’s, while only 74 for RB’s.
• When looking at the top ten ranked RB’s and WR’s on draft boards this year, only three of the RB’s were even in the league five seasons ago (Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner-a backup then), while six of the WR’s were active.
• When looking at those same top ten ranked players, the RB’s only have a combined 28 50 pts+ seasons, compared to 43 by WR’s.
• Not only are the RB’s careers shorter in comparison, but the stats are declining since NFL teams are increasing the use of “running backs by committee”. The top ten RB’s averaged 340 carries, 1,540 yards, and 15 tds in 2005, but now only 312 carries, 1,340 yards, and 11 tds, a 10-20% decline.

While 50 pts+ seasons might not win yearly leagues, for keeper or dynasty leagues, in which you keep 8 players season to season, the consistency is gold. For instance, if you had Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, and Arian Foster on your team last year, you probably won the title, but would not have kept any of those players going into the season. Seven to ten year veteran WR’s like Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson are still in their prime and are in the top ten in their position. Meanwhile, younger veteran RB’s Turner and Jackson mentioned earlier are beginning to wear down and are a year or two from the 30 year old drop off. When looking at this year’s draft class, rookies Daniel Thomas, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, DeMarco Murray, and Roy Helu will be drafted early in hopes of a handful of 100 pts+ seasons. Meanwhile, WR’s like Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Greg Little are more likely to produce a decade of 50 pts+ seasons, which is more productive in the long run and an better model for a dynasty league.

Know Your Washington Nationals

With the spring sports now finished, we are entering the dog days of summer sports. With the NFL and even the NBA locked out now, we are left with only baseball of the major sports on SportsCenter. With MLB at the all-star break, there’s no better time to catch up with the Nationals.

Washington enters the second half of the season at .500 after being a couple games above this late in the season for the first time since 2005. They are winning due to their pitching, which is 10^th in ERA, and fielding, which is 12^th in the majors. The Nat's batters need to improve in the second half though, since they are 27^th in average, 23^rd in runs, and 25^th in OBS. As for the stars, Werth and Zimmerman are only batting .214 and .254, while fortunately Strasburg might be pitching next month and Harper was promoted to AA.

In the days before play resumes on the team’s bright future, try to test your knowledge of the team’s past to pass the time. Can you name the Nationals all-time stat leaders in 5 minutes? Can you name the Nationals opening day lineups in 8 minutes? Or you can just read up on these guys.

Spring Sports Recap

This year’s #1 spring sports teams fared much better than last year’s edition. Last year, five of my favorite teams were ranked #1 going into the postseason and all of them choked. Luckily this year, of the four teams that made the playoffs, only one went out early. Coincidentally, the team that came in with the least expectations was the one that won a title.

The Capitals came into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league and earned the top seed in the East, only to get swept in the second round to the Lightning. Despite their consecutive early exits the past two seasons, the team seems stuck in the same direction by resigning Brooks Laich to a big deal and retaining Coach Boudreau.

Over the weekend, UVA’s #1 ranked baseball team lost in extra innings to eventual back-to-back champion South Carolina after committing back to back errors, having their star pitcher go out sick, and going 0-14 with runners in scoring position. Despite the excruciating way they were eliminated, the Cavaliers had their best season ever, lasting until the final four teams.

Similarly, the UVA tennis team made the final for the first time in the programs history, but also fell short to the eventual back-to-back champion USC (California, not Carolina this time). Despite being a couple points away from pulling off the come-from behind victory, there is no reason they cannot contend for a title again next year considering they are 68-0 against opponents not named the Trojans.

Oddly enough, my spring sports team that ended up going all the way was the one with the lowest expectations; the #7 ranked lacrosse team. Luckily, there’s a chance they can bring home another trophy next season considering most of the starters will be back next year.

Even though the Cleveland Cavs and Wizards did not even make the playoffs, they got great reviews in the draft, so there is hope all around.

Jim Riggleman Quits On the Above .500 Nationals

Minutes after the lowly Nationals won their 11th game in 12 tries, manager Jim Riggleman resigned over a contract dispute. He walks away from a team which is now above .500 for the first time this late in the year since their inaugural season in 2005. Apparently the 140-172 coach dropped an ultimatum on GM Mike Rizzo to extend his current one year deal in the midst of one of the best stretches in the team's recent history.


Only a DC sports team can have both positive and negative news on ESPN.com at the same time: (click to enlarge)

Further reading:

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/06/jim-riggleman-quits-manager-nationals-winning-streak/1


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/riggleman-quits-at-nationals-manager/2011/06/23/AGPDlnhH_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal

Virginia Cavaliers are Omaha Bound!

UVa’s baseball team is headed to the College World Series for the second time in the program’s history after a thrilling three game series against UC-Irvine. The past weekend, the Cavaliers hosted the Anteaters in the super regional round of the NCAA tournament in surprisingly stormy Charlottesville. In the first game, #2 overall MLB draft pick Danny Hultzen and Cody Winiarski combined to pitch a four hit shutout in the Hoo’s 6-0 victory despite a two hour rain delay.

On Sunday, the Wahoo’s jumped to a 3-0 lead in the second game before monsoon season came delaying the game for four hours. Once play resumed, UC Irvine gained momentum and rallied to tie the game in seventh and took the lead for good in the eighth, forcing an additional game.

In the third and decisive game, the Anteaters and Cavs were locked in a 1-1 pitchers duel going into the ninth inning. In the top of the inning, UVA made an uncharacteristic error on a bunt attempt putting men on first and third with no outs. The next Anteater batter drove in the leading run on a double play. Then in the bottom of the inning, Virginia’s first two batters were quickly retired. Trailing by one run, in front of five thousand fans at home, the nation’s #1 team was on the ropes. Then after falling 1-2, one strike away from elimination, David Coleman singled to center, Jared King got an infield single, and Reed Gragnani walked on four pitches to load the bases. After taking strike one, Chris Taylor makes Sportcenter’s #5 play of the day:

After one strike away from having nothing to write about, now my only concern is which sweet tee shirt I could get?