Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship

• 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked

Runner Up

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% Miami highest
• 30% have Louisville beating Miami

Final Four

• 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
• The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
• #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
• Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
• Duke and MSU are split 50/50
• Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
• Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
• Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette

Sweet Sixteen

• #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
• All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
• Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
• #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
• #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
• Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

Picking your NCAA Tourny Bracket

Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round: 

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

 In the second round: 

• Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset 
• Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

 Sweet 16 round: 

• 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering) 
• On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

 Elite Eight round: 

• Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year) 
• 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 9 (#1, #2, #2, #4) was about average).

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. 

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips

When looking at the last eight NCAA tournaments mathematically, there are some striking trends.

In the first round:

#12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44%

22% of #4 seeds go down

Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game

In the second round:

More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10)

Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset

Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner

Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4

Sweet 16 round:

78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight

On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds

Elite Eight round:

Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four

44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four

#2 seeds make it 25% of the time

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average.

Now, which teams are going to be in those spots/upsets? Good luck!