NFL Rookie Quarterback Party!

This week, Russell Wilson, the rookie quarterback for Seattle, was named the Week 1 starter for the Seahawks. He joins Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden as rookie signal callers starting the season opener. That means an astounding 16% of NFL teams are going into the season with their most important position never having taken a NFL snap.

Since the historic Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf draft back in 1998, there have only been 13 rookie quarterbacks to start the season opener, compared to five just this year alone. None of those previous 14 seasons had more than two rookies starting in Week 1. During this time frame, 39 QB’s were taken in the first round and only 11 started the opener, or 28%, compared to five of the first six QB’s drafted this year. Meanwhile some star quarterbacks held the clipboard their entire rookie seasons, like Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

How did these brave young passers fare? Well, not surprisingly, they struggled. Of the 13 rookies who started the openers, only 5 or 38% of them had winning records for the season; 38% threw over 3000 yards, 23% threw more TD’s than INT’s, and only 15% had more than 20 TD’s. Unfortunately resting the prized QB does not seem to help either. Of the 37 rookies who started at least five games, only 37% had more TD’s than INT’s, 24% had winning records, 18% threw over 3000 yards, and only 10% had more than 20 TD’s.

Does this mean teams should shelter their face of the franchise to the film room all season instead? Not necessarily.  Some rookies clearly struggled and never recovered, like Leaf (3-7, 2 TD, 15 INT), Akili Smith (1-5, 2 TD, 6 INT), Jimmy Clausen (1-11, 3 TD, 9 INT) and David Carr (4-12, 9 TD, 15 INT). Meanwhile some were able to grow from their difficult rookie seasons like Eli Manning (1-6, 6 TD, 9 INT), Michael Vick (1-4, 2 TD, 3 INT) and Matt Stafford (2-8, 13 TD, 20 INT). Not all rookies stumbled out of the gate though as evidenced by Matt Ryan (11-6, 18 TD, 13 INT), Big Ben (14-2, 20 TD, 16 INT) and Joe Flacco (13-6, 15 TD, 15 INT).  But beware the early successes as well since some rookies careers did not take off after enjoying a solid rookie season like Jason Campbell (10 TD, 6 INT), Shaun King (5-2, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Vince Young (8-6).

Even though rookie quarterbacks are such a mixed bag, five teams are resting their future on them due to the ever shifting passing oriented dominance of the NFL.  Of the nine signal callers drafted in the past two seasons that started, only two of them did not throw more TDs than INTs and those two (McCoy and Clausen) have already had two 1^st round draft picks take their place. Meanwhile last year, Andy Dalton (9-7, 20 TD, 13 INT) lead his team to the playoffs and Cam Newton (4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 14 rushing TDs) broke all kinds of records.

With opening weekend only a week away, we will soon find out whether these rookie quarterbacks will make their coaches and GM’s geniuses or unemployed.  

What are the Browns' Draft Options?

The Browns have the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and since the first three picks are practically already signed, all eyes are on Cleveland. This is the fourth draft in a row the Browns are picking in the top seven, and tenth time this high in the 14 drafts since their return.  What have they done with all these high picks? Only one All-Pro and 13 busts. Outside of Joe Thomas, only three drafted Browns have made one Pro Bowl and just once each. That is three combined pro bowl seasons from 106 of 107 draft selections.

With this history of futility, who are the Browns going to erroneously pick this year? This website compiles all the mock drafts performed across the internet and of the 212 most recent ones, 76% choose Trent Richardson, 10% Justin Blackmon, and 8% for Ryan Tannehill. Here are the breakdowns for each choice:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama:

Pros: The Crimson Tide runner is a bruising back that has pass catching and protection skills as well. He is considered the most complete back since Adrian Peterson five years ago. Richardson will energize an offense that faces three AFC North teams which each made the playoffs with top 7 defenses specializing on stopping the run.

Cons:  Running backs have a very short shelf life and with the increasing use of committee backfields, #4 overall is high for a back. You can easily get a good running back later in the draft, since the difference between the fifth best back and 25^th best is not as great as other positions drafted this high.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State:

Pros: The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner would be a much needed explosive target for Colt McCoy. The Browns lead the league in drops last year and pairing him with Greg Little would open up the offense.

Cons: Considering all the holes on the Browns roster, drafting a player who only touches the ball a half dozen times a game at fourth overall will not be a great value.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M:

Pros: The Aggie quarterback shot up the draft board after his pro day and could be the franchise passer the Browns need to compete with Flacco, Dalton, and Big Ben.

Cons: The pick would be a desperate move for a franchise grasping for a QB after Luck and Griffin are taken. Tannehill has only played 19 games at quarterback after playing WR for the Aggies.

Trade down:

Pros: The Browns need players, not a player. They lost their top running back and right tackle to free agency and lack a franchise QB and #1 caliber WR on the 29^th ranked offense. Their OLB will be suspended for bounty hunting and need improvement at DE, FS, and #2 CB. They can pass on Blackmon and get WR Floyd at #15, avoid Richardson and get RB Martin at #37, or ignore project Tannehill and get QB Weeden at #44.  They could even trade down to bolster the right side of the line with G David DeCastro.

Cons: Cleveland already has 13 picks this year and what is the point of drafting multiple later busts instead of one at #4. They will not be able to fix everything this year, and can pair Blackmon or Richardson with QB Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.

I believe that the Browns should trade down since they need all the help they can get and only RG3 and Luck are difference makers in this draft.