Is Joe Flacco an Elite Quarterback?

Going into his first Super Bowl, Joe Flacco is getting questioned about whether or not he is an elite quarterback, among the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  This is especially topical since he outplayed those two quarterbacks on the road to earn this Super Bowl berth.  Eli Manning fielded similar questions last year and went on to upset Brady in the Super Bowl.

What makes a quarterback elite? Is it team wins? Winning percentage? Perhaps you believe that quarterbacks get too much blame and praise for winning a 52 player team game, therefore they should be judged by completion percentage or touchdown to interception ratio instead. Do elite quarterbacks need to be clutch in the fourth quarter and win the big game, and not just stat hogs in the blowouts?

Here is a breakdown for those stats for the nine quarterbacks who have started at least five playoff games since Flacco joined the league in 2008:

QB	Wins	Win %	Comp %	TV/INT Ratio	SB	GW D
A	3	43%	62%	1.6	0	1
B	4	67%	68%	8.5	1	2
C	4	80%	63%	3	1	2
D	8	67%	54%	2	0	2
E	2	33%	66%	2.8	0	0
F	5	63%	66%	3.6	1	0
G	5	71%	59%	1.3	1	2
H	4	67%	61%	3	0	2
I	1	20%	66%	1.3	0	1

Which quarterback would you want?

• D has the most wins
• C had the highest winning percentage
• B has the best completion %, TD/INT ratio, has won a ring, and has two game winning drives
• F is second in comp. %, wins, td/int ratio, and has a ring
• G is second in wins, win %, has a ring, and two game winning drives

Which one of these QB’s would you avoid?

• E has only won two playoff games with no Super Bowls or clutch drives
• A has a sub-500 record and no Super Bowls either

Hard to judge the elite quarterbacks without the names and history, huh? Hate to break it to you, but the ones who look like they are not elite (E and A) are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The winning-est QB’s (D and C) are Flacco and Eli Manning.  The QB’s with good stats and a ring (B, F, and G) are Brees, Rodgers, and Big Ben. The remaining QB’s are Matt Ryan and surprisingly Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez.

Next time elite quarterbacks are mentioned, be sure to look at the full picture and not just the glamour name.

Note: I am fully aware that if I start at 2007 instead of 2008, it includes two more wins for Brady and four more for Eli, but overall the stats do not change that much and defeats the purpose of the Flacco debate. Game winning drives are a stat determined by profootballreference.com.

Super Bowl Deja Vu?

The buildup to this year’s Super Bowl surrounds two already Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and coaches. Both Eli Manning and Tom Brady have won at least one Super Bowl, while their current coaches have also won before. This got me thinking about how rare of a matchup this is. The chart at the bottom lists the starting QBs and coaches and there are some interesting results:

• This is the fifth time two SB winning QBs have faced off and also the fifth time two SB winning coaches have met.
• Surprisingly or not surprising at all, eight of those ten instances were the same games. The exceptions were when Warner (now on the Cardinals) faced Big Ben (now with Tomlin) and Don Shula was trying to win with Marino against Bill Walsh.
• Along similar correlating lines, there have been 27 QBs trying to win their second ring, and 29 coaches. Those QBs have won 17 or 63% of those attempts, while the coaches have gone 62%.
• It gets even weirder, three QBs have won their second ring with a different coach (Montana/Seifert, Aikman/Switzer, Big Ben/Tomlin) and three have lost trying with a new play caller (Warner/Martz, Warner/Whisenhunt, P Manning/Caldwell). Likewise, four coaches have won with a new QB (Gibbs/Williams, Parcells/Hostetler, Gibbs/Rypien, Seifert/Young) and four have lost with a new passer (Shula/Woodley, Shula/Marino, Parcells/Bledsoe, Holmgren/Hasselbeck).
• Since this is only the fourth matchup of two previously winning QBs and coaches in the same game, you would think it was the first rematch between the same two pairs in a Super Bowl. However, the Steelers of Bradshaw and Noll faced off against the Cowboys lead by Staubach and Landry twice after all four had already been champions.

What does this all mean for Super Bowl XLVI? Not a clue. However, I do have a new found respect for Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Kurt Warner and Super Bowl XIII.

Eli-te Manning

In the preseason Eli Manning answered a radio host’s question by saying he was an elite quarterback, which was met by scoffs from the media and opposing fans. While the Giants QB has been a Pro Bowler and Super Bowl MVP, he was not considered in the same class as other signal callers like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger, or even the best QB in his own family. Despite upsetting Brady in the Super Bowl, Eli’s aw shucks demeanor and 53 turnovers in the past two seasons while missing the playoffs did not help him get out of Peyton’s shadow.

However, since the season started, the youngest Manning has risen to the occasion. Aided by the middle Manning’s neck surgery and New York’s meager running game, Eli has captured the spotlight this season. In his best season as a pro, the Giants QB broke multiple Giants records including completions, yards, and career playoff touchdowns. His 4,933 yards would have been third all time going into this season, and when paired with 29 TD’s, would easily win MVP in other years. He even set a record for most 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season, previously held by Peyton and Johnny Unitas.

More importantly, Eli won his last two playoff games advancing to the NFC championship game, one win away from a possible Super Bowl rematch with Brady and the Patriots. With the two victories, he has improved his postseason record to 6-3, which at 67% compares quite favorably to other QBs with as many starts. If you look at the chart below, he has had more postseason success than Hall of Famers Staubach, Young, Griese, Tarkenton, Kelly, Marino, and Moon, as well as future Hall of Famers Favre and older brother Peyton. The nine QBs above him on the list have won a combined 23 of the 44 Super Bowls played, so maybe Eli’s new found stardom and renewed team success and will make it 24.

Quarterback	Wins	Losses	Percent	Hall of Fame
Bart Starr	9	1	90%	Yes
Jim Plunkett	8	2	80%
Tom Brady	15	5	75%	Will Be
Terry Bradshaw	14	5	74%	Yes
Troy Aikman	11	4	73%	Yes
Ben Roethlisberger	10	4	71%
Joe Montana	16	7	70%	Yes
Kurt Warner	9	4	69%	May Be
John Elway	14	7	67%	Yes
Eli Manning	6	3	67%
Roger Staubach	11	6	65%	Yes
Phil Simms	6	4	60%
Ken Stabler	7	5	58%
Steve Young	8	6	57%	Yes
Donovan McNabb	9	7	56%
Drew Brees	5	4	56%	May Be
Bob Griese	6	5	55%	Yes
Fran Tarkenton	6	5	55%	Yes
Brett Favre	13	11	54%	Will Be
Jim Kelly	9	8	53%	Yes
Steve McNair	5	5	50%
Danny White	5	5	50%
Mark Brunell	5	5	50%
Craig Morton	5	5	50%
Peyton Manning	9	10	47%	Will Be
Matt Hasselbeck	5	6	46%
Dan Marino	8	10	44%	Yes
Daryle Lamonica	4	5	44%
Randall Cunningham	3	6	33%
Dave Krieg	3	6	33%
Warren Moon	3	7	30%	Yes

Peyton’s Not Manning Up

This Sunday, Peyton Manning will miss the opener against Houston with a neck injury, which would not normally be a big deal. However, the four time MVP has not missed his last 228 starts over a 13 year span. To put the streak into perspective, here are some interesting stats about when the streak started on September 6^th, 1998:

• The BCS was in its first season as well
• Michael Jordan was still on the Bulls
• The Monica Lewinsky/Bill Clinton scandal was in full swing
• 9/11 was still 3 years away
• Armageddon and There’s Something About Mary were the top movies
• AOL 4.0 was king, while Google and Facebook were years away
• “My Heart Will Go On” was the top song
• Seinfeld had just ended 4 months earlier
• The (new) Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Washington Nationals, Oklahoma City Thunder, Nashville Predators, Atlanta Thrashers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, and Charlotte Bobcats did not exist yet
• His younger brother, Super Bowl MVP Eli, was still in high school, and now has the longest streak for quarterbacks
• Colt McCoy, his replacement on my Fantasy Football team, was only 12

But the Colts need not to worry, since Peyton’s temporary replacement, Kerry Collins, was already in the league three seasons and was waived by Carolina when the streak started. Yikes.