Runningback’s Decline Not Just Due to Turning 30

In the world of fantasy football, there are many theories and clichés to predict a player’s rise and fall. The “third year receiver”, “handcuff” your runningback, and “avoid kickers and defenses” theories are common, and I have even written about the “30 year old RB wall” one previously. Further research goes beyond just the age of RB’s, but at carries and performance to predict their decline as well.

When looking runningback stats from the past 13 seasons, there are some interesting trends about the decline of a RB’s performance from year to year.  There are certain benchmarks signifying a good season that RB’s strive to meet year to year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 123 10 rushing touchdown seasons, but only 49 (40%) of those RB’s got at least 10 TD’s the next year.
2. Of the RB’s who were in the top #10 in scoring that year, only 47 (39%) were in the top #10 the following season.
3. 63 RB’s scored 150 fantasy points or more in a season, with only 21 (33%) reaching that mark the next year.
4. The 1,500 yard rushing mark has been eclipsed 51 times, but only repeated 13 times or 25%.

What does this mean for last year’s RB’s? Four RB’s had seasons last year that fit each of the criteria above, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore.  Following the percentages above, only one or two of those RB’s will reach those benchmarks again.  Frank Gore has played seven full seasons and is already 30, and Lynch had never been over 1500 yards or 150 points before in his six year career, so they are good bets from that group to regress.

There is another factor to look at besides players peaking, which is the amount of carries. Runningbacks take a pounding carrying the ball throughout the season, and thus have shorter careers as compared to quarterbacks or wide receivers.  This wear and tear leads to decreasing point production the following year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 21 RB’s that carried the ball 370+ times in a season, and 19 (90%) of them had a decrease in points the next season for an average of 40% less points.
2. 34 RB’s with 350+ carries, with 28 (82%) decreasing an average of 36%.
3. 49 340+ carries, with 41 (84%) decreasing an average of 50%.
4. 104 300+ carries, with 73 (70%) decreasing an average of 48%.

As far as last year’s RB’s go, Foster and Peterson had 370+ carries, while Lynch had 340+ and Gore had 300+. Ray Rice had 340+ carries and met some of the earlier criteria as well. Two other RB’s got 300+ carries but were rookies or second year players, Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley.  Following the percentages, you would expect all of these RB’s, except the two young ones, to see a decrease in point totals next year.  

Therefore, when it comes to draft day, I would avoid some of these workhorses who are not likely to repeat their performances and opt for younger RB’s who are coming into their primes. 

In Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks are now a Dime a Dozen

Now that the preseason of the NFL has begun, it is a perfect time to start researching for your Fantasy Football drafts at the end of the month.  For the first time in years, I am also in a seasonal draft format in addition to the keeper/dynasty league. Seasonal drafts require totally different strategies and research.  

The key to these leagues is when to draft each position. Traditionally, the first two rounds are reserved for running backs with a couple star quarterbacks and wide receivers sprinkled in. Then after locking up your top two RBs, you would move on to QB and WR before drafting kickers and defenses in the later rounds. However, the recent trends of RBs by committee and the pass happy NFL could force a change in this routine. In fact, four of the top six passing yard seasons in NFL history were last season. Meanwhile, only two RBs carried more than 300 times for over 1300 yards last season, compared to ten times just five seasons ago.  Does this mean QBs are more valuable and therefore should be drafted earlier while RBs can slide to later rounds? Not necessarily.

Most leagues award six or four points to TDs thrown by a QB, compared to six for a regular TD by a RB or WR. Obviously QBs are going to be more heavily weighted since the top QBs score 40+ TDs a year while the top RBs/WRs get 15 TDs.  That also means that average QBs outscore the top position players as well. Of the top 25 scorers last year, 19 were quarterbacks.  Alex Smith (238 points) and Andy Dalton (248) scored roughly the same amount as top RBs LeSean McCoy (266) and Arian Foster (239). Even though only 12 QBs will be starting in FFL week to week, the lowest ranked one will still roughly throw 4,000 yards and 20 TDs. This means that QBs are less valuable than ever before.

The current draft rankings reflect this devaluing of the QB position.  Only four of the top 21 players are QBs, and ten of the top 71. That means owners are still drafting their starting QB in rounds 6-8 with players like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Matt Schaub. Meanwhile the top 24 RBs and WRs, or two each per team, are gone by round 6. Since the record books are flying out the window, owners know QBs can be drafted with a high value later on.

If you project the scoring, you can see how scarce RBs and other positions are compared to QBs. The average projected point totals by position in round 6 mentioned above are 340 QB, 148 RB and 135 WR. There is a 45% drop off in points between the RBs and WRs in the 1^st round to the 7^th round compared to just a 30% drop for QBs. Meanwhile the difference between the top kicker and the 15^th kicker and the top defense and 10^th defense is only 20 points, hence why those two positions are usually drafted dead last. Therefore you still need to grab a top RB early since the only ones left after the top 24 are the second fiddles in the committee (Jonathon Stewart, Peyton Hillis, CJ Spiller, Michael Bush, etc).

Despite all the gaudy record-breaking numbers last year, in fantasy football, the QB is still not the glamour position, since you can still make the title game with Colt McCoy or Rex Grossman as your QB as was the case in our league last year.