Now It's Time to Panic for the Nats

Now that the Nationals have lost six in a row, it is officially time to panic in the nation’s capital. At this point last season, Washington was 20 games above .500, at 60-40. Now through 100 games this season, the Nat’s are four games below .500 with only a 48-52 record.  What happened to the team that was picked to make the World Series?

The Nationals' strength last year was the excellent pitching staff from top to bottom. Last season they were 1^st in the NL in ERA, opponent’s batting average, and walks/hits per inning. Now those numbers have slipped to 6^th, 7^th, and 5^th. These numbers are reflected in the bullpen as well, which went from 3^rd best to 8^th.  Even though the stats declined from last year, the numbers are still respectable, and indicative of a winning ballclub. What about the other factors in baseball?

In DC’s first place season last year, the team finished 4^th in batting average, 5^th in runs, and 6^th in on base percentage.  Now the Nationals’ bats have struggled to 13^th, 14^th, and 14^th out of the 15 NL teams in those respective categories.  They have not fared any better in the field as Washington fell from 4^th to 15^th in number of fielding errors and 2^nd to 15^th in fielding percentage.

Despite these numbers, teams find a way to win by cliche sports terms like lucky or clutch. Batters can be clutch when runners are in scoring position or when called to pinch hit. Last season they were 7^th and 1^st in batting average in those situations, but now 11^th and 12^th.  In close games, the team has faltered as well. They went from 27-21 in one run games and 13-7 in extra inning games last year to just 16-14 and 5-7 in those situations now.

                The reason the Nationals had such lofty expectations this season was that they either improved or returned each spot of their roster. The team has not seen major injuries, and is healthier overall compared to last season.  How could a team (not full of aging vets, but young rising stars) get worse without major injuries or key player movement?

                The answer? Mojo. Curses. Karma. Whatever you want to call it, but there is definitely something going on in the mental makeup of the players. It started in the last month of the regular season last year when Strasburg was cautiously benched due to his innings limit, starting the Strasburg curse. Then in one of the last home games of the year, winless Racing President Teddy Roosevelt finally won, creating the Teddy curse.  Now a mediocre president, Taft, joined the race, bringing mediocrity to the 4^th inning entertainment and possibly another curse.

On a more realistic note, one player change in the offseason might have an unforeseen mental impact as well. Goofball slugger Michael Morse brought humor to the clubhouse and broke up the tension last season with his antics, but was traded away in January. Now the pressure of meeting lofty expectations may be getting to the young team.  Perhaps the Nationals can overcome the statistic and curses to use the remaining 62 games to catch the injury-riddled Braves and win the division again.

Where’s the Love and Runs for Strasburg?

Last night, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings, lowering his earned run average to 2.24 which is the 5th best in the National League. However, Washington did not score any runs either, and ended up losing the game 4-0. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence this season, as Strasburg has received a major league low 2.44 runs per game from the offense, causing him to only have a 4-6 record.

With the All-Star game coming up, this lack of run support will hurt the ace’s chances to make the team.  Unfortunately win/loss record is a prominent, overrated statistic used to evaluate pitchers despite the reliance on outside factors.  If you were a manager choosing the NL pitchers, which three would you pick from the players below?

Pitcher A – Record of 10-3, team is 49-33 and is one of the most popular/successful teams
Pitcher B – Record of 9-4, 13-year veteran and former all-star
Pitcher C – Record of 9-6, team is 49-34 and is in first place
Pitcher D – Record of 4-6, team is playing .500 and under-achieving
Pitcher E – Record of 5-4, on a team with the worst record and attendance in the NL
Pitcher F – Record of 5-6, team is 11 games below .500 and in fourth place.

Clearly managers, using the antiquated notion of helping your team win is the same as a win/loss record, would choose pitchers A, B, and C. Meanwhile, there are plenty of other stats to choose from to evaluate pitchers, including earned run average (ERA), opponents batting average (BAA), and walks/hits per innings pitched (WHIP). Having read MoneyBall recently, I have even more profound appreciation for more efficient and revealing stats, like wins above replacement (WAR) and defense-independent ERA (DIPS).  Now look how the pitchers above rank using the five metrics mentioned:

Pitcher A – ERA of 3.75 (31st in the NL out of 32 qualifying pitchers), 25th in WAR, 22nd in WHIP
Pitcher B – Dead last in DIPS, WAR, and WHIP, 30th in ERA
Pitcher C – Not in the top 26 in any category.
Pitcher D – 5th in ERA, top 10 in three other categories
Pitcher E – 3rd in BAA, top 11 in three others
Pitcher F – 4th in BAA, top 13 in three others

It would now make more sense to choose pitchers D, E, and F to the All-Star game using these stats.  When looking at the averages of all these rankings, these three pitchers would rank in the top 10 overall in the NL, worthy of one of the nine starting pitcher spots on the team. Meanwhile pitchers A, B, and C are ranked 22nd, 31st, and 32nd.

Will pitchers D (Strasburg), E, and F make the team? We will find out Saturday when the rosters are revealed.

Is it Time to Panic for the Nats?

After getting swept by the Cardinals this afternoon, is it time to panic for the Washington Nationals? Granted it is still only April, but the defending NL East champions only scored four runs in the three game home series. Here are some quick stats and trends that need to change if DC is going to live up to this year’s lofty expectations: 

• They have lost four straight and have gone 3-9 in the past 12
• They are 8-1 against the Marlins and White Sox (who are a combined 12-28), but 2-10 against the rest of the league
• They are below .500 now, which they avoided all last season
• They are already 5 games back of Atlanta and New York in the division
• They are 23^rd in the MLB in batting average, 20^th in runs, and 22^nd in on base % (after being 9th, 10^th, 12^th last year)
• They are 17^th in era, 21^st in opponent batting average, and 13^th in quality starts (2^nd, 2^nd, 5^th last year)
• They are worst in the league in errors and second to last in fielding % (8^th and 8^th last year)
• Meanwhile only Bryce Harper, the 20 year old, has produced at the plate, leading the team in average, hits, home runs, RBI’s, and total bases
• On the mound, Stephen Strasburg is 1-4 and Gio Gonzalez has a 5.85 era in four starts

On the bright side, if the Caps have taught us anything, it is that DC teams can recover from a rough start. 

DC Sports Team Falters in the Playoffs Again

After winning the division for the first time in over a decade, Washington’s playoff run ended in the first round. After taking an early lead on an experienced playoff tested opponent, DC fell apart defending their home field. Washington got to this point riding a rookie of the year candidate who was barely on the depth chart to start the season. Their prized recent free agent even contributed down the stretch despite missing the middle of the season. Even the big trade which involved mortgaging future prospects for one player worked out, since he was an All-Star this season. DC was all a buzz, with increased attendance, record TV ratings and even a popular Twitter hashtag. Now their former champion coach must field questions during the off-season second guessing his handling of their star player’s injury down the stretch and what might have been in the playoffs. 

Wait, I was talking about the Nats.

Either way, despite the rough playoff exits for the Redskins and Nationals, the future is bright for both franchises.

 

National's Dream Season Continues

After Washington went up two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, er, Giants last night, I felt it was time to take a look at how well this first place team is doing in the dog days of summer. Not only does Washington have the best record in the league and a 5 game lead in their division, but they are now atop ESPN’s power rankings for the first time.

All season the team has been carried by their pitching, and here are some of their stats: 

• #1 in team ERA in the Majors, #1 in opponent batting average, #1 in WHIP, #3 in strikeouts
• Four of DC’s five starters are in the top #14 in ERA in the NL, all five in the top #22
• Four in the top #12 in WHIP
• All five in the top #15 in opponent batting average

It’s not all pitching either. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are:

• #1 in runs, hits, and total bases in the Majors
• #2 in RBI
• #4 in batting average

But of course all the naysayers will look to the impending resting of Stephen Strasburg as the downfall of this team that will end their great season. However, keep in mind, starters only pitch every five games and the first round of the playoffs are best out of five when you only need three pitchers anyways. Look at the stats of the National's rotation below. 

• A) 15-6, 3.29 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, .210 Opponents Batting Average
• B) 9-6,   2.35 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, .238   
• C) 6-5,   3.18 ERA, 74 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, .236
• D) 13-5, 2.90 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, .226
• E) 7-7,   3.74 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.21 WHIP, .239

Which one is the one getting benched that will ruin our season? If you were in a playoff hunt against the Nat’s, which one would you want to be shut down?  The fact that Washington’s rotation is having such a great season and is that deep lets me believe that this remarkable season will continue deep into the fall.

Nationals Opening Day with Expectations

With Opening Day just hours away, the Washington Nationals will start a season with high expectations for once. Here are a few of the reasons why there are high hopes in DC for this season:

• The Nat’s finished last season just one game below .500, their best record since 2005, going 14-4 to finish the year.
• Phenom pitcher Stephan Strasburg returns for a full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• Over the winter break, DC traded four of its top prospects (from Baseball America’s #1 farm system) for All Star pitcher Gio Gonzalez. The 26-year-old has won 15+ games the past two seasons and is slotted as the #2 pitcher.
• 2010 1^st overall draft pick Bryce Harper will start in the minors, but might be brought up in the summer to fill in the centerfield slot. The 19-year-old slugger could provide a boost to the lineup, especially if they are in a playoff hunt.
• Davey Johnson returns for a full season as the manager of a club in need of an experienced leader. The World Series winning skipper has won over 1,100 games with a .564 winning percentage.
• $126 Million Dollar outfielder Jayson Werth has nowhere to go but up this season, after only batting .232 with 20 homeruns last year.
• Lastly, MLB changed the playoff rules this year, allowing for an extra wild card team. Therefore, the Nationals can make the playoffs even in the stacked NL East.

All these factors create optimism in DC and have been noticed around the league. Experts from ESPN made predictions for the upcoming season, and 15 of the 49 picked the Nat’s to make the playoffs. Some even have them making the World Series. This is all just talk for now, but it is encouraging to have optimism for a team that has not had a winning record since being in Montreal.

Know Your Washington Nationals

With the spring sports now finished, we are entering the dog days of summer sports. With the NFL and even the NBA locked out now, we are left with only baseball of the major sports on SportsCenter. With MLB at the all-star break, there’s no better time to catch up with the Nationals.

Washington enters the second half of the season at .500 after being a couple games above this late in the season for the first time since 2005. They are winning due to their pitching, which is 10^th in ERA, and fielding, which is 12^th in the majors. The Nat's batters need to improve in the second half though, since they are 27^th in average, 23^rd in runs, and 25^th in OBS. As for the stars, Werth and Zimmerman are only batting .214 and .254, while fortunately Strasburg might be pitching next month and Harper was promoted to AA.

In the days before play resumes on the team’s bright future, try to test your knowledge of the team’s past to pass the time. Can you name the Nationals all-time stat leaders in 5 minutes? Can you name the Nationals opening day lineups in 8 minutes? Or you can just read up on these guys.

Indians and Nationals are Winning?

Usually during this time of the year I focus my attention on NHL and NBA playoffs, while I barely notice that baseball season has started. But do not look now, because the Indians have the best record in the American League while the Nationals are above .500.

At 12-4, Cleveland is tied for the best record in the majors, ahead of last year’s division leader Twins and perennial power Red Sox who are both struggling at 5-10. The Tribe are third in the majors in homers, fifth in ERA, and second in opponents batting average. Cleveland’s hot start can be attributed to the healthy returns of Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Grady Sizemore, as well as contributions from youngsters Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin. After being above 500 for only one game in the past two seasons and picked to finish fourth their division, hopefully the Indians can keep this up and give Cleveland fans some much needed hope.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are turning heads as well. In a season without Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, Washington is currently above .500. While that might not seem like much, keep in mind that since their inaugural season in 2005, the Nat’s have been above .500 for only 33 games. Of the 810 games has DC taken the field, only 4% of the time have they had a winning record. Three of those seasons they never had a winning record at any point, and the longest they lasted before turning south was May 28^th. Despite subpar batting (27^th in average) fielding (22^nd) and Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, the Nationals are getting by due to four starters with sub 3.4 ERAs. Hopefully Washington can keep glimmers of hope alive in upcoming series against Pittsburgh and NY Mets before facing San Francisco and Philadelphia in early May.

Not bad for two teams in the bottom eight in salary in the league.

Strasburg Adds to the DC and Cleveland Sports Curse

After the latest news that Nat’s rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg tore a ligament in his arm and needs Tommy John surgery, taking him out of next season, I began to think DC sports is cursed, just like Cleveland. Cleveland has the longest title drought of cities with three teams, while DC is the longest with four teams. Well, which is worse?

Both cities main fan base is with football, so we’ll start there. The Browns won multiple titles in the 50’s and 60’s with Jim Brown and Otto Graham but have never been to a Super Bowl. The Redskins have won three Super Bowl titles, but none in the past 18 years. The Browns are infamous for Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, and the move to Baltimore. Washington has Dan Snyder, Norv Turner, Gus Frerotte head butting a wall, and the reattempted fake field goal. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Both cities have an NBA team of similar franchise lengths, with equally tortured pasts. The Cavaliers have never won a title and only appeared in their first final four years ago. The Wizards won a title back in 1978 as the Bullets, but have not made it past the 2nd round since 1982. Cleveland endured the Shot, numerous losses to Jordan in the 90’s, and now the Decision, numerous early playoff exits to the Celtics. DC has suffered through the Jordan/Kwame years and gun totting Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Since the Nationals have only been around five years, I cannot compare them to the Cleveland baseball team, so I’ll take a look at the Capitals’ failures in comparison to the Indians. The Tribe last won a World Series in 1948 and lost two World Series in the 90’s. The Capitals have never won a Stanley Cup in their 36 year history, failing in their only appearance in 1998. Cleveland is infamous for the baseball version of the Catch, the Major League movies, the Blown Save, The Stop Call, and countless players finding success after bolting. Meanwhile the Caps choked in the playoffs to Pittsburgh seemingly every year in the 90’s and 00’s and endured the Jagr blunder. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

That leaves us with the fourth and newest sports franchise in DC, the Natinals, err Nationals. After moving from Montreal, the Nationals have not had a winning season in six seasons, including this season, 20 games below .500. Including two 100 loss seasons, they are already on their third manager, second general manager, and couldn’t even sign their first round pick in 2008. The Strasburg injury is not the first costly one to the Nationals either, with Nick Johnson missing a year with a broken leg, and Jordan Zimmermann requiring Tommy John as well. Loser by Default: Washington

Unfortunately for Cleveland, not only do they appear more cursed, but Washington has more hope for the future with Ovechkin, Backstrom, John Wall, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, a healthy Strasburg, and Redskins with an improved front office. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the remnants of the Lebron-less Cavs, lowly Indians with only Grady Sizemore, and the Browns whose only good young players are a left tackle and kick returner. Loser for being born in Cleveland and living in DC most my life and rooting for these teams: Me

Dog Days of Summer

With only one major sport going on and ESPN bored out of their mind during the lazy dog-dangling days of summer, here are some things to look forward to:

• 4 Days until the Indians trade Shin-Soo Choo, their leader in AVG, HR, RBI, and SB, for a bag of peanuts
• 12 Days until the NFL Hall of Fame Game, opening the preseason
• 37 Days until College Football kicks off
• 38 Days until Strasburg throws a no-hitter against the Pirates, the 10th in the majors this season
• 41 Days until I draft #1 overall in my Fantasy Football League, starting a 10 year dynasty
• 46 Days until UVA plays at USC
• 46 Days until UVA is no longer bowl eligible
• 47 Days until NFL Opening Sunday
• 47 Days until the Browns are out of playoff contention
• 54 Days until Albert Haynesworth goes to one knee faking an injury because he’s winded
• 57 Days until the NHL season begins
• 58 Days until the Caps clinch the Southeast division for the fourth straight year
• 62 Days until Skins fans start calling for McNabb to be benched
• 68 Days until Strasburg strikes out 16 Mets in a 1-0 loss giving the Nat’s 100 losses for the third year in a row
• 68 Days until Peyton Manning throws 6 TDs and 400 yards against the Jags, but my fantasy team still loses since I have no one else
• 75 Days until Albert Haynesworth needs to be carted off because of a knee injury because he’s winded
• 82 Days until Mike Holmgren comes down from the front office to coach the Browns to victory over the Steelers, improving their record to 1-5
• 92 Days until Bosh, Wade and Lebron all simultaneously tear their ACLs coming down off of a fun bunch style high-five during warm-ups of NBA’s opening day
• 93 Days until the Wizards lose their opener despite 20 assists from Wall and Arenas to each other, since they have no one else to pass to
• 111 Days until Albert Haynesworth demands to be traded because the new defensive scheme is too hard for him and is causing him to be winded too often
• 123 Days until UVA tries to end its 6 game losing streak to VT
• 123 Days until Ohio State tries to extend its 6 game winning streak over UMich
• 158 Days until the Winter Classic in which Crosby will complain it’s too cold outside and will force the Caps to play in the new igloo instead of Heinz Field

Hopeful Days for the Nationals

June 7th and 8th are going to be two key dates for the future of the Washington Nationals franchise. Not only is Stephen Strasburg making his major league debut on Tuesday, but the Nats have the first pick in the draft on Monday.

This time a year ago, Strasburg was drafted first overall and eventually signed at the deadline to the highest rookie contract ever. After going 6-2, with 1.30 ERA in his 11 starts in the minors, “Baseball Jesus” is making his long awaited debut on Tuesday, or Strasmas. Once his starting date was announced last week the game was sold out before it had a chance to go on sale. Cities are even trying to change their names to him, and his last minor league start was nationally televised on Versus. With the Nats only a couple games under .500, only 6 games out of first, and have decent run support this year, Strasburg’s 100 mph arm will be needed on a possible wild card push this season.

Meanwhile on Monday, Washington will be making another #1 overall pick, due to back to back 100 loss seasons. The runaway favorite choice for the Nationals is 17 year old power slugging catcher Bryce Harper, who took the GED early in order to play sooner. He has been highly touted since SI dubbed him the Lebron of baseball last year, but comes with some baggage of being an immature teenager. DC already has the polite face of the franchise and a silent hurler, so a cocky slugger might be needed.

Hopefully Harper will be catching the first pitch from Strasburg in a World Series in a couple seasons.

Cavs and Caps Epic Playoff Fail

Well that was a disastrous spring. My sweet playoff beard for the Caps and Cavs lasted all of two rounds, barely a month. They both had the best records in the league, Presidents Cup, MVP, all for nothing. Now the future of both teams are cloudy. Obviously Lebron can leave after July 1, but the Cavs need to retool to keep him here. Shaq is too old and slow, Jamison is too soft, Mo Williams is too inconsistent, but there are many promising free agents to be Lebron’s Pippen if he wants to stay. Meanwhile, the Caps need to resign Backstrom, who is the key to the offense, as well as find a shutdown defenseman who is not looking to score first, like Green. At least the Nats are going on a World Series run and have their own savior.

Let the Strasburg Hype Begin

Today, #1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg makes his spring training debut for the Washington Nationals. The young pitcher out of San Diego State hasn’t even thrown a pitch in the majors, but has already been compared to Nolan Ryan and Dwight Gooden. He signed the biggest rookie contract ever last July for $15 million with only seconds left before the deadline. A quick google search produces more hits for him than Ryan Zimmerman, the current all star player/captain on the team. The Nat’s website already has his jersey on sale for $260. CBS Evening News even ran a piece on him last week.

Unfortunately, the Nationals need all the pub they can get. Since moving from Montreal, the Nat’s have a 343-466 (.424 %) in five years, including back to back 100 loss seasons. They are already on their third manager, second general manager, and couldn’t sign their first round draft pick in 2008. The owners had trouble paying their rent and couldn’t even spell the name on the jersey correctly. Now all the hope is on the shoulders of a 21 year old in a position that history has not been kind to. From 1990-2002, five pitchers have been drafted #1 overall, none of which made an all-star team, and one never even made the majors.

Now management needs to balance the progress of their prospect with the fan demand to see the phenom. Overworking his young arm can cause injury and ruin a pitcher’s career, while attendance drops waiting for his 100 mile per hour pitching display.

At least the Nationals have first dibs on this guy in June.