Are The Nationals World Series Favorites?

For the second time in three years the Washington Nationals are in the playoffs! Two seasons ago, Washington was a team happy to be there and lost in the first round in heart breaking fashion. Now they are more experienced and are one of the favorites to win the World Series. Here are some reasons why the Nationals could bring DC its first baseball title in 90 years.

• They lead the majors in team ERA, starting pitcher ERA, and are second in bullpen ERA
• They set an all-time record for strikeout to walk ratio at 3.66-1
• They are in the top four in the NL in runs scored, home runs and on base percentage
• They are coming into the playoffs peaking at the right time, having won 15 of 20 and 21 of 30, both tops in the MLB, and ended the season on their first ever no-hitter
• Drew Storen reclaimed his closer role in early September and converted 10 consecutive save opportunities and hasn’t given up an earned run in 23 appearances
• Even the experts are picking the Nat’s to win it all. (11 of 15 on ESPN and 2 of 5 on Fox)

What’s preventing the Nationals from cruising all the way to a title? Oh yea, there are other teams in the playoffs.

• The Nats are only 17-20 against the teams that made the playoffs, a .459 winning percentage which is second to worst of the 10 teams
• They have been outscored 159-131 against playoff teams, a -28 margin that is third worst

So while Washington has put up great stats and look like the favorite on paper, I am a little hesitant to crown them champs already.

Now It's Time to Panic for the Nats

Now that the Nationals have lost six in a row, it is officially time to panic in the nation’s capital. At this point last season, Washington was 20 games above .500, at 60-40. Now through 100 games this season, the Nat’s are four games below .500 with only a 48-52 record.  What happened to the team that was picked to make the World Series?

The Nationals' strength last year was the excellent pitching staff from top to bottom. Last season they were 1^st in the NL in ERA, opponent’s batting average, and walks/hits per inning. Now those numbers have slipped to 6^th, 7^th, and 5^th. These numbers are reflected in the bullpen as well, which went from 3^rd best to 8^th.  Even though the stats declined from last year, the numbers are still respectable, and indicative of a winning ballclub. What about the other factors in baseball?

In DC’s first place season last year, the team finished 4^th in batting average, 5^th in runs, and 6^th in on base percentage.  Now the Nationals’ bats have struggled to 13^th, 14^th, and 14^th out of the 15 NL teams in those respective categories.  They have not fared any better in the field as Washington fell from 4^th to 15^th in number of fielding errors and 2^nd to 15^th in fielding percentage.

Despite these numbers, teams find a way to win by cliche sports terms like lucky or clutch. Batters can be clutch when runners are in scoring position or when called to pinch hit. Last season they were 7^th and 1^st in batting average in those situations, but now 11^th and 12^th.  In close games, the team has faltered as well. They went from 27-21 in one run games and 13-7 in extra inning games last year to just 16-14 and 5-7 in those situations now.

                The reason the Nationals had such lofty expectations this season was that they either improved or returned each spot of their roster. The team has not seen major injuries, and is healthier overall compared to last season.  How could a team (not full of aging vets, but young rising stars) get worse without major injuries or key player movement?

                The answer? Mojo. Curses. Karma. Whatever you want to call it, but there is definitely something going on in the mental makeup of the players. It started in the last month of the regular season last year when Strasburg was cautiously benched due to his innings limit, starting the Strasburg curse. Then in one of the last home games of the year, winless Racing President Teddy Roosevelt finally won, creating the Teddy curse.  Now a mediocre president, Taft, joined the race, bringing mediocrity to the 4^th inning entertainment and possibly another curse.

On a more realistic note, one player change in the offseason might have an unforeseen mental impact as well. Goofball slugger Michael Morse brought humor to the clubhouse and broke up the tension last season with his antics, but was traded away in January. Now the pressure of meeting lofty expectations may be getting to the young team.  Perhaps the Nationals can overcome the statistic and curses to use the remaining 62 games to catch the injury-riddled Braves and win the division again.

Where’s the Love and Runs for Strasburg?

Last night, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings, lowering his earned run average to 2.24 which is the 5th best in the National League. However, Washington did not score any runs either, and ended up losing the game 4-0. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence this season, as Strasburg has received a major league low 2.44 runs per game from the offense, causing him to only have a 4-6 record.

With the All-Star game coming up, this lack of run support will hurt the ace’s chances to make the team.  Unfortunately win/loss record is a prominent, overrated statistic used to evaluate pitchers despite the reliance on outside factors.  If you were a manager choosing the NL pitchers, which three would you pick from the players below?

Pitcher A – Record of 10-3, team is 49-33 and is one of the most popular/successful teams
Pitcher B – Record of 9-4, 13-year veteran and former all-star
Pitcher C – Record of 9-6, team is 49-34 and is in first place
Pitcher D – Record of 4-6, team is playing .500 and under-achieving
Pitcher E – Record of 5-4, on a team with the worst record and attendance in the NL
Pitcher F – Record of 5-6, team is 11 games below .500 and in fourth place.

Clearly managers, using the antiquated notion of helping your team win is the same as a win/loss record, would choose pitchers A, B, and C. Meanwhile, there are plenty of other stats to choose from to evaluate pitchers, including earned run average (ERA), opponents batting average (BAA), and walks/hits per innings pitched (WHIP). Having read MoneyBall recently, I have even more profound appreciation for more efficient and revealing stats, like wins above replacement (WAR) and defense-independent ERA (DIPS).  Now look how the pitchers above rank using the five metrics mentioned:

Pitcher A – ERA of 3.75 (31st in the NL out of 32 qualifying pitchers), 25th in WAR, 22nd in WHIP
Pitcher B – Dead last in DIPS, WAR, and WHIP, 30th in ERA
Pitcher C – Not in the top 26 in any category.
Pitcher D – 5th in ERA, top 10 in three other categories
Pitcher E – 3rd in BAA, top 11 in three others
Pitcher F – 4th in BAA, top 13 in three others

It would now make more sense to choose pitchers D, E, and F to the All-Star game using these stats.  When looking at the averages of all these rankings, these three pitchers would rank in the top 10 overall in the NL, worthy of one of the nine starting pitcher spots on the team. Meanwhile pitchers A, B, and C are ranked 22nd, 31st, and 32nd.

Will pitchers D (Strasburg), E, and F make the team? We will find out Saturday when the rosters are revealed.

Is it Time to Panic for the Nats?

After getting swept by the Cardinals this afternoon, is it time to panic for the Washington Nationals? Granted it is still only April, but the defending NL East champions only scored four runs in the three game home series. Here are some quick stats and trends that need to change if DC is going to live up to this year’s lofty expectations: 

• They have lost four straight and have gone 3-9 in the past 12
• They are 8-1 against the Marlins and White Sox (who are a combined 12-28), but 2-10 against the rest of the league
• They are below .500 now, which they avoided all last season
• They are already 5 games back of Atlanta and New York in the division
• They are 23^rd in the MLB in batting average, 20^th in runs, and 22^nd in on base % (after being 9th, 10^th, 12^th last year)
• They are 17^th in era, 21^st in opponent batting average, and 13^th in quality starts (2^nd, 2^nd, 5^th last year)
• They are worst in the league in errors and second to last in fielding % (8^th and 8^th last year)
• Meanwhile only Bryce Harper, the 20 year old, has produced at the plate, leading the team in average, hits, home runs, RBI’s, and total bases
• On the mound, Stephen Strasburg is 1-4 and Gio Gonzalez has a 5.85 era in four starts

On the bright side, if the Caps have taught us anything, it is that DC teams can recover from a rough start. 

DC Sports Team Falters in the Playoffs Again

After winning the division for the first time in over a decade, Washington’s playoff run ended in the first round. After taking an early lead on an experienced playoff tested opponent, DC fell apart defending their home field. Washington got to this point riding a rookie of the year candidate who was barely on the depth chart to start the season. Their prized recent free agent even contributed down the stretch despite missing the middle of the season. Even the big trade which involved mortgaging future prospects for one player worked out, since he was an All-Star this season. DC was all a buzz, with increased attendance, record TV ratings and even a popular Twitter hashtag. Now their former champion coach must field questions during the off-season second guessing his handling of their star player’s injury down the stretch and what might have been in the playoffs. 

Wait, I was talking about the Nats.

Either way, despite the rough playoff exits for the Redskins and Nationals, the future is bright for both franchises.

 

National's Dream Season Continues

After Washington went up two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, er, Giants last night, I felt it was time to take a look at how well this first place team is doing in the dog days of summer. Not only does Washington have the best record in the league and a 5 game lead in their division, but they are now atop ESPN’s power rankings for the first time.

All season the team has been carried by their pitching, and here are some of their stats: 

• #1 in team ERA in the Majors, #1 in opponent batting average, #1 in WHIP, #3 in strikeouts
• Four of DC’s five starters are in the top #14 in ERA in the NL, all five in the top #22
• Four in the top #12 in WHIP
• All five in the top #15 in opponent batting average

It’s not all pitching either. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are:

• #1 in runs, hits, and total bases in the Majors
• #2 in RBI
• #4 in batting average

But of course all the naysayers will look to the impending resting of Stephen Strasburg as the downfall of this team that will end their great season. However, keep in mind, starters only pitch every five games and the first round of the playoffs are best out of five when you only need three pitchers anyways. Look at the stats of the National's rotation below. 

• A) 15-6, 3.29 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, .210 Opponents Batting Average
• B) 9-6,   2.35 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, .238   
• C) 6-5,   3.18 ERA, 74 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, .236
• D) 13-5, 2.90 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, .226
• E) 7-7,   3.74 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.21 WHIP, .239

Which one is the one getting benched that will ruin our season? If you were in a playoff hunt against the Nat’s, which one would you want to be shut down?  The fact that Washington’s rotation is having such a great season and is that deep lets me believe that this remarkable season will continue deep into the fall.

Nat's at the All-Star Break

Now that the MLB season is at the All Star break, here is a look at some nuggets about the National’s much publicized successful season so far:

• DC has the best record in the NL at the All-Star break for first time since 1933
• The franchise has four players in the All-Star Game for the first time since 1994
• TV ratings are up 50%, 28% increase in attendance, “likes” on Facebook are up 30 percent, and Twitter followers are up 139 percent
• Bryce Harper became the youngest position player All Star ever
• The Nat’s pitching staff has the best ERA in the majors, best opponents batting average, best walk/hit to inning ratio, and fifth most strikeouts
• Home attendance is in the top half of the league, where they haven’t finished since 2005
• They’ve had all this success while battling injuries. Ryan Zimmerman missed 14 of 83 games, while LF Michael Morse missed 50. RF Jayson Werth has missed 56, but will be back in August as well as closer Drew Storen who has not pitched a game yet. Catcher Wilson Ramos only played in 25 games before going out for the year. That’s 24% of the ideal starting lineup starts missed from a first place team. 

Let's hope the Nationals keep this up instead of choking like in 2005 or the MLB striking like in 1994.

Imagine if the Nat's Were Slightly Healthier

Imagine if Drew Storen, Jayson Werth, and Michael Morse were healthy for the Washington Nationals.

Storen's replacement, Henry Rodriquez, has blown three saves already, which resulted in losses.  Storen only blew five out of 48 last year and only one that resulted in a loss. Imagine if he is healthy and saves those three games, or at least does not turn them into losses. The Nationals would then have a 29-14 record, second best in baseball.

Werth was batting .276 when he was injured, good for second on the team in April. Morse was batting .303, with 31 hrs and 95 rbis last year. Their replacements Bernadina, Ankiel, and Nady are batting a combined .202 this year. Washington has lost eight games by one run or less so far this year. If those two batters provided enough offense to win just four of those eight games, then their record would be 33-10, best in the majors by three games. That winning percentage would be .767, which projects out to 124 wins for the season, eight more than the all time record.

Needless to say, the Nat's would been pretty sweet if healthier.

P.S. Storen and Morse will be back in early June, Werth in August. Watch out MLB!

Nationals Winning Early

I know it’s early in the season, but the Nationals:

• Have a record of 9-3
• Are in first place in the NL East
• Have the third best record in the majors
• Rank fifth in the NL in batting average and third in on base percentage
• Lead the MLB in ERA at 1.91, 19% better than the second best team
• Lead the majors with 117 strikeouts, prompting me to get a sweet “K Street” T Shirt
• Lead the MLB in opponents’ batting average at .191
• Starting rotation has gone 5-1 with a MLB leading 1.69 ERA, 31% better than 2^nd place
• Face the 4-7 Astros, 5-6 Marlins, and 3-9 Padres for the next 8 games
• Have not been this many games above .500 since September 2005.

Nationals Opening Day with Expectations

With Opening Day just hours away, the Washington Nationals will start a season with high expectations for once. Here are a few of the reasons why there are high hopes in DC for this season:

• The Nat’s finished last season just one game below .500, their best record since 2005, going 14-4 to finish the year.
• Phenom pitcher Stephan Strasburg returns for a full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• Over the winter break, DC traded four of its top prospects (from Baseball America’s #1 farm system) for All Star pitcher Gio Gonzalez. The 26-year-old has won 15+ games the past two seasons and is slotted as the #2 pitcher.
• 2010 1^st overall draft pick Bryce Harper will start in the minors, but might be brought up in the summer to fill in the centerfield slot. The 19-year-old slugger could provide a boost to the lineup, especially if they are in a playoff hunt.
• Davey Johnson returns for a full season as the manager of a club in need of an experienced leader. The World Series winning skipper has won over 1,100 games with a .564 winning percentage.
• $126 Million Dollar outfielder Jayson Werth has nowhere to go but up this season, after only batting .232 with 20 homeruns last year.
• Lastly, MLB changed the playoff rules this year, allowing for an extra wild card team. Therefore, the Nationals can make the playoffs even in the stacked NL East.

All these factors create optimism in DC and have been noticed around the league. Experts from ESPN made predictions for the upcoming season, and 15 of the 49 picked the Nat’s to make the playoffs. Some even have them making the World Series. This is all just talk for now, but it is encouraging to have optimism for a team that has not had a winning record since being in Montreal.

Know Your Washington Nationals

With the spring sports now finished, we are entering the dog days of summer sports. With the NFL and even the NBA locked out now, we are left with only baseball of the major sports on SportsCenter. With MLB at the all-star break, there’s no better time to catch up with the Nationals.

Washington enters the second half of the season at .500 after being a couple games above this late in the season for the first time since 2005. They are winning due to their pitching, which is 10^th in ERA, and fielding, which is 12^th in the majors. The Nat's batters need to improve in the second half though, since they are 27^th in average, 23^rd in runs, and 25^th in OBS. As for the stars, Werth and Zimmerman are only batting .214 and .254, while fortunately Strasburg might be pitching next month and Harper was promoted to AA.

In the days before play resumes on the team’s bright future, try to test your knowledge of the team’s past to pass the time. Can you name the Nationals all-time stat leaders in 5 minutes? Can you name the Nationals opening day lineups in 8 minutes? Or you can just read up on these guys.

Jim Riggleman Quits On the Above .500 Nationals

Minutes after the lowly Nationals won their 11th game in 12 tries, manager Jim Riggleman resigned over a contract dispute. He walks away from a team which is now above .500 for the first time this late in the year since their inaugural season in 2005. Apparently the 140-172 coach dropped an ultimatum on GM Mike Rizzo to extend his current one year deal in the midst of one of the best stretches in the team's recent history.


Only a DC sports team can have both positive and negative news on ESPN.com at the same time: (click to enlarge)

Further reading:

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/06/jim-riggleman-quits-manager-nationals-winning-streak/1


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/riggleman-quits-at-nationals-manager/2011/06/23/AGPDlnhH_blog.html?wprss=nationals-journal

Indians and Nationals are Winning?

Usually during this time of the year I focus my attention on NHL and NBA playoffs, while I barely notice that baseball season has started. But do not look now, because the Indians have the best record in the American League while the Nationals are above .500.

At 12-4, Cleveland is tied for the best record in the majors, ahead of last year’s division leader Twins and perennial power Red Sox who are both struggling at 5-10. The Tribe are third in the majors in homers, fifth in ERA, and second in opponents batting average. Cleveland’s hot start can be attributed to the healthy returns of Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Grady Sizemore, as well as contributions from youngsters Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin. After being above 500 for only one game in the past two seasons and picked to finish fourth their division, hopefully the Indians can keep this up and give Cleveland fans some much needed hope.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are turning heads as well. In a season without Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, Washington is currently above .500. While that might not seem like much, keep in mind that since their inaugural season in 2005, the Nat’s have been above .500 for only 33 games. Of the 810 games has DC taken the field, only 4% of the time have they had a winning record. Three of those seasons they never had a winning record at any point, and the longest they lasted before turning south was May 28^th. Despite subpar batting (27^th in average) fielding (22^nd) and Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, the Nationals are getting by due to four starters with sub 3.4 ERAs. Hopefully Washington can keep glimmers of hope alive in upcoming series against Pittsburgh and NY Mets before facing San Francisco and Philadelphia in early May.

Not bad for two teams in the bottom eight in salary in the league.

Week 13 Recap

Browns 13, Dolphins 10

In one of the most boring football games I have ever seen, Cleveland pulled out a late victory over Miami to improve to 5-7. Hillis had an off game, while Delhomme did not throw a pick six, despite hitting the cornerback in his hands. Joe Haden continued his hot streak with his fourth pick in a row and earned defensive rookie of the month. With the Bills and Bengals coming up, the Browns have a chance to get to .500. Sweet.

Redskins 7, Giants 31

Well this season is done. Jacobs and the GMen ran all over the depleted and heartless Skins in a game that was over before halftime. I was only two weeks off from my July prediction of when Haynesworth would be want to be traded/cut. With four tough games coming up, it is time to see who will be worth keeping around next year.

Colts 35, Cowboys 38

It’s getting pretty scary for Indy now. After their third straight loss, the Colts are now on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Once again, Peyton struggled with four picks against only 17 carries for 40 rushing yards. With no running game and reliable receivers, the defending AFC champs have only one more win than the Skins and Browns, and will be asking the age old question.

RedHawks 26, Huskies 21

In one of the most thrilling college football games I’ve ever seen, my only cousin and the rest of the Miami of Ohio squad defeated ranked Northern Illinois in the last minute. The RedHawks won the MAC title with a 9-4 record, completing their worst to first turnaround. After converting a 4^th and 20, their redshirt freshman qb threw the game winning td on all out blitz. Miami will face Middle Tennessee State in the GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile on January 6^th.

Cavaliers 57, Hokies 54

During the middle of a NFL Sunday, the ACC men’s basketball season tipped off with a UVA upset of a VT team hungover from their football title victory the night before. The Wahoos finished their six game road trip with two huge wins against #13 Minnesota and a Hokie team that was projected to finish near the top of the ACC standings. Tony Bennett’s freshmen laden team will surprise a bunch of people this season.

Jayson Werth $126 million, Adam Dunn $56 million

Also lost among football season was the hot stove of the MLB off-season, until the Nationals made a big splash on Sunday. After not offering Adam Dunn enough years or money last week, Washington signed former Phillies Rightfielder Jayson Werth to a 7 year, $126 million deal. A seven year deal for a 31 year old! While his numbers stack up w/ Dunn’s, he’ll be making $18 million a year seven seasons from now at 38. In the past three seasons with a stacked Philly lineup, Werth went .273/24/67, .268/36/99, and .296/27/85 while on the Natinals, Dunn batted .236/40/100, .267/38/105, and .260/38/103. While Werth is a better defender, Washington offered him more per year for more years than fan favorite Dunn. If this is some sort of grand scheme to make the Nats competitive and abandon the youth movement, then why not resign Soriano and Capps? It just looks like a kneejerk reaction to not re-signing Dunn for a team without a winning record in their history, without their biggest draw for all of next season, and without crowds. Eventhough it’s a Dunn deal, I do not think it is Werth it (I had too).

Strasburg Adds to the DC and Cleveland Sports Curse

After the latest news that Nat’s rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg tore a ligament in his arm and needs Tommy John surgery, taking him out of next season, I began to think DC sports is cursed, just like Cleveland. Cleveland has the longest title drought of cities with three teams, while DC is the longest with four teams. Well, which is worse?

Both cities main fan base is with football, so we’ll start there. The Browns won multiple titles in the 50’s and 60’s with Jim Brown and Otto Graham but have never been to a Super Bowl. The Redskins have won three Super Bowl titles, but none in the past 18 years. The Browns are infamous for Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, and the move to Baltimore. Washington has Dan Snyder, Norv Turner, Gus Frerotte head butting a wall, and the reattempted fake field goal. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Both cities have an NBA team of similar franchise lengths, with equally tortured pasts. The Cavaliers have never won a title and only appeared in their first final four years ago. The Wizards won a title back in 1978 as the Bullets, but have not made it past the 2nd round since 1982. Cleveland endured the Shot, numerous losses to Jordan in the 90’s, and now the Decision, numerous early playoff exits to the Celtics. DC has suffered through the Jordan/Kwame years and gun totting Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Since the Nationals have only been around five years, I cannot compare them to the Cleveland baseball team, so I’ll take a look at the Capitals’ failures in comparison to the Indians. The Tribe last won a World Series in 1948 and lost two World Series in the 90’s. The Capitals have never won a Stanley Cup in their 36 year history, failing in their only appearance in 1998. Cleveland is infamous for the baseball version of the Catch, the Major League movies, the Blown Save, The Stop Call, and countless players finding success after bolting. Meanwhile the Caps choked in the playoffs to Pittsburgh seemingly every year in the 90’s and 00’s and endured the Jagr blunder. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

That leaves us with the fourth and newest sports franchise in DC, the Natinals, err Nationals. After moving from Montreal, the Nationals have not had a winning season in six seasons, including this season, 20 games below .500. Including two 100 loss seasons, they are already on their third manager, second general manager, and couldn’t even sign their first round pick in 2008. The Strasburg injury is not the first costly one to the Nationals either, with Nick Johnson missing a year with a broken leg, and Jordan Zimmermann requiring Tommy John as well. Loser by Default: Washington

Unfortunately for Cleveland, not only do they appear more cursed, but Washington has more hope for the future with Ovechkin, Backstrom, John Wall, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, a healthy Strasburg, and Redskins with an improved front office. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the remnants of the Lebron-less Cavs, lowly Indians with only Grady Sizemore, and the Browns whose only good young players are a left tackle and kick returner. Loser for being born in Cleveland and living in DC most my life and rooting for these teams: Me