2-0 NFL Teams vs. 0-2 Teams

After two weeks of the NFL season, there are eight teams that are 2-0 and eight teams that are 0-2.  I have seen the statistic several times today stating that 63% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs, while only 12% of 0-2 teams do. Now that 12% of the season is already done, which of the 2-0 teams should start printing out playoff tickets and which of the 0-2 teams should start working on their draft board?

First take a look at the eight teams that are off to a fast start, in multiple categories:

Since statistically only 63%, or 5 of these 8 will make the playoffs, which ones will advance? What is the best indicator of team success? The easiest trend is if the team made the playoffs last year, then they should make it again. However, half the teams on this list did not make it last year. Maybe last year was a fluke and the five year records will be a better predictor. Well Teams D and B have great percentages, while C and H have had several losing seasons recently. If “defense wins championships”, then certainly Teams C and H are in since they are among the tops in defensive yards and points allowed. The NFL is an offensive league now though, so the top offenses of Teams F and G are strong bets to make the playoffs. Game by game, winning the turnover battle is key, therefore Team C and H are starting the season off well, while Team A, B, and F need some work to do. After looking at these metrics overall, Teams C and G are playoff bound, while Teams A, B, and E will be the 3 in the 37% that do not make it.

Now for the teams on the other end of the spectrum, which started off 0-2:









Looking at the same metrics as before, Teams I and K made the playoffs last year and have above average scoring offenses, so maybe they can turn their seasons around. Team L and M are even in the turnover battle, and have above average scoring defenses. Teams J and O have great records in the past five years, so maybe they just got off to a rough start this season. Looking at the rankings overall, it looks like Team L has the best chance of being the one team to make the playoffs after a 0-2 start.

Here is the team key:



It’s not surprising that Seattle and Denver are the two best, but Chicago and New Orleans need more than history and fan base to get in. There is no guarantee Pittsburgh, NY Giants, or Washington are turning it around, while Tampa Bay’s defense and turnover margin can give their fans some hope.

NFL Teams' Best and Worst Starts Since...

There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Detroit Lions are off to their best start since 1956 and the Colts are off to their worst since 1997. This got me to thinking, how remarkable have these seasons been in comparison to other teams' starts? Is the NFL that consistent that if a team starts off really hot or cold, it is history making? I looked at the current standings and compared them to when the last time the team had that surprisingly few or high number of wins through 4-5 games (some teams have had byes already). Here is the graph with analysis afterwards:

• Detroit is having their best season in 55 years.
• Green Bay has not been 5-0 in 46 years as well.
• Indy, Denver, and Philly have not started this poorly since the late 90's.
• The other feel good stories of the season, 49ers and Raiders, are justified in their press since it has been nine seasons since they've had this good a record through five games.

While those seven teams are the extremes, the other 25 are more predictable:

• Seven teams have the same exact record at this point last year. (The Bucs, Texans, and Giants had playoff aspirations going into this year and have the same record this point last year which they just missed the playoffs. For all the excitement and hope Cam Newton has brought the Panthers, they are 1-4 just like last year.)
  
• Another seven have the same disappointment or optimism as two seasons ago. (Mediocre Dallas was also at 2-2 two years ago when they made the playoffs.)
  
• Washington and Buffalo are on top of their divisions, but both had the same great start only three years ago when they each missed the playoffs.
• Half the league's teams were just as good or just as bad at this point within the past three seasons.
  

I'm sure week 10 or other years might show differently, but this snapshot shows how remarkably consistent NFL teams are. Therefore, do not panic or join the bandwagon for your favorite team just yet, because your team is likely to be just where it was a couple years ago anyways.