NCAA March Madness Time!

Tomorrow is one of the best sports days of the year as the NCAA men’s basketball tournament begins. Usually I just focus on upsets, good games, picking the best bracket, etc. However, this year this year there is an extra incentive, as UVa capped off their ACC regular season championship with an ACC tournament title, earning a #1 seed in the East region. It was the first ACC regular season championship outright and #1 seed for the Cavs in over 30 years, and the first Tournament title since 1976. Now, do I follow my heart and pick the Hoo’s to win it all or do I listen to the experts and try to be more accurate with my bracket predictions?

First let’s take look at the trends from the past 28 seasons by round.

First round:

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 75% with #12 seeds Mississippi, California, and Oregon pulling off the upsets) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Kansas State went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 14% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year #3 New Mexico was upset though)

Second round:

• Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (#1 Gonzaga was upset by eventual Final Four team Wichita St, who happen to be undefeated this year)
• Meanwhile 36% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Georgetown was upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 12% of the time has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (which actually did happen once last year)

Sweet 16:

• 70% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (was 25% last year with only champion Louisville advancing) 
• On the other side of the region, 72% are either #2 or #3 seeds (100% last year)

Elite Eight:

• Only one time in 33 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (which was no exception last year) 
• 41% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (no #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 18 (#1, #4, #4, #9) was way above average.)

If those are the yearly trends, then who did the experts pick this year? Here is a breakdown of 22 “expert” brackets.

Championship:

• 32% of the experts chose #1 seed Florida to win the entire thing (compared to 75% for eventual champ Louisville last year)
• UVa was the only #1 seed not picked of the six different teams
• 27% picked #4 Michigan State with 8 losses while only 9% picked undefeated #1 Wichita State

Runner Up:

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 31% #4 Louisville was the highest
• 22% have Florida over Louisville

Final Four:

• 86% picked #4 Michigan State to reach the Final Four, while only 1 expert picked UVa
• Only 27% picked #1 Wichita State, while 55% picked #4 Louisville, out of the Midwest Region
• #1 Florida 68%, #2 Kansas 32% in what looks an entertaining South regional Final
• Sorry Wildcats fans, Villanova was the only #2 seed not picked
• No teams outside of the top #4 seeds were picked, how boring

Elite Eight:

• 100% of brackets picked Florida in the Elite Eight
• 90% have #4 MSU facing #3 Iowa State, which is absurd considering only 16% of #4 seeds and 26% of #3 seeds even make the Elite Eight
• #4 Louisville and #1 Wichita State are split 60/40
• Only 9% picked UVa, the lowest #1 seed, and 0% for #2 seed Villanova

Sweet Sixteen:

• 23% have Kentucky beating #1 Wichita State, but only one bracket had #4 MSU or #3 Iowa State losing
• All 20 experts picked #4 Louisville to make the Sweet 16, stunning considering half the #4 seeds do not make it there
• #2 Kansas 55% vs. #7 New Mexico 45% looks like a great game
• Same with #2 Villanova 55% vs. #7 UConn 40%

Conclusions

• Since 30% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, UVa or Wichita St. are the choices to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Villanova and Kansas have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so experts pick against Creighton as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Since only one time out of 34 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, experts think UVa and Wichita St. look the most vulnerable. 

After looking at the trends and expert picks I am even more inclined to pick UVa to win it all. If the entire pool picks MSU, Louisville, etc, I gain an advantage by picking UVa if they win, while not gaining anything by picking against Virginia.  The consensus of the expert picks is staggering though. Using the Ken Pomeroy rankings (the en vogue college basketball sabermetrics rankings), UVa is the #4th best team in the country while MSU is #10. Granted Michigan State is now fully healthy and coming off a BIG 10 tournament title and they may be underseeded as a #4. However, they have gone 8-7 in their past 15 games, while UVa has only one loss in a meaningful game since New Year’s.  Historic trends have #1 seeds advancing 70% of the time in this matchup, while only 16% of #4 seeds, but the 22 experts picked 9% #1 seed/91% #4 seed.

Meanwhile on the other side of the region, which team do you think got 95% of the picks to make the elite eight? The #7 ranked team or the #22, #25, or #26 ranked teams? Iowa State, the #22 ranked team, was predicted to win in 21 of the 22 brackets, while #7 Villanova got zero.

Either the experts or on to something that I do not know about, or maybe I found out a key to who I am picking this week.  That’s why they play the games.

Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship

• 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked

Runner Up

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% Miami highest
• 30% have Louisville beating Miami

Final Four

• 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
• The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
• #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
• Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
• Duke and MSU are split 50/50
• Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
• Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
• Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette

Sweet Sixteen

• #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
• All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
• Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
• #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
• #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
• Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

Picking your NCAA Tourny Bracket

Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round: 

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

 In the second round: 

• Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset 
• Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

 Sweet 16 round: 

• 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering) 
• On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

 Elite Eight round: 

• Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year) 
• 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 9 (#1, #2, #2, #4) was about average).

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. 

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips

When looking at the last eight NCAA tournaments mathematically, there are some striking trends.

In the first round:

#12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44%

22% of #4 seeds go down

Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game

In the second round:

More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10)

Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset

Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner

Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4

Sweet 16 round:

78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight

On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds

Elite Eight round:

Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four

44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four

#2 seeds make it 25% of the time

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average.

Now, which teams are going to be in those spots/upsets? Good luck!