Shhhh, The Caps Are Back

After starting 2-8-1, the Capitals have quietly surged back into first place in the division and the playoff hunt. Washington has won five straight and 9 of 11 to climb to atop of the Southeast Division and the #3 seed. It also helps that the three worst teams in the conference are in the division and the Caps would be the 7th seed overall in the playoffs or 8th in the Western conference.

The key to the resurgence has been Alex Ovechkin’s return to MVP form as well. The team captain and leader has scored eight goals in the past five games and is tied for the lead for goals in the NHL. After only scoring two goals in his first ten games, the Great 8 has 20 points in the past 11 games.

Overall the team has turned things around from the beginning of the year. Earlier they were only scoring 2.3 goals a game, now they are putting it in the net 3.7 times, and instead of giving up 3.6 goals a game, the keepers are down to 2.2 a game.  The goalies have improved their save percentage from 88% to 92% and the defense has limited their penalties to 2.3 a game, down from 4.7 earlier.

Maybe the team has finally bought into new coach Adam Oates’s system and these playoffs will be better than the bitter disappointments in previous years.  We shall see…

What is Wrong With the Caps?

Ten games into the lockout shortened season, Washington only has five points, which is dead last in the league standings.  The Capitals have made the playoffs the last five seasons, with four division titles and even the best record in the league just three seasons ago. What happened? Why is DC in the basement with the season already a fifth of the way over?

• Well, you cannot win if you do not score. In the past five seasons the Caps scored an average of 3.1 goals a game, no lower than 2.7, while this season Washington is only scoring 2.3 a game. 
• You also cannot win if you give up a lot of goals either. In the past five seasons the Capitals gave up an average of 2.7 goals a game, no higher than 2.9, while this season DC is letting in 3.6 a game. 
• To go along with that, you need to have a good goalie to win as well. In their playoff seasons the Caps goalies had a 90.9 save percentage, while this season it has slipped to 88%, which is fourth worst in the league.
• The losses cannot be blamed solely on the goalies though. Through ten games, Washington’s defense has already given up 47 power play opportunities and 12 power play goals, both of which are second worst in the NHL. Additionally, the 1.2 and 4.7 per game averages are higher than the five year averages of .7 and 3.8.   
• Maybe Capitals fans blame the losses on the refs, complaining they are not getting equal extra man opportunities.  However, DC’s 8 power play goals on 40 opportunities for a 20% success rate rank in the  middle of the league this season, and are similar averages to their playoff seasons. 
• It certainly does not help that the Caps' best players have not produced to their caliber yet either. All-Star center Nicklas Backstrom only has 8 points, which is tied for 44th in the NHL, while face-of-the-franchise Ovechkin’s 5 points are tied for 123rd. Alex’s .5 points a game are well below his 1.2 five year average and Backstrom’s .8 would be the lowest in his career as well.

What’s next? Departed players/coaches Alexander Semin, Bruce Boudreau, and Dale Hunter do not seem to be the problems this time……

Should the Caps Want the #1 Seed?

Ever since their nine game winning streak brought them to the top of the conference standings, the Capitals have been chasing the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the East. The top team gets the number one seed in the playoffs and home field advantage. However, when looking at recent NHL playoff history, is this something Washington really wants?

In the past ten NHL playoffs, number one seeds have not fared well, especially in the East. Only two #1 seeds made the Stanley Cup Final with only one winner (Tampa Bay). The average seed in either conference to make the Finals is 3.1, which is higher than in the NFL (2.4) and NBA (2.0) during that time frame. Many things factor into this including hot goalies and more prominent home field advantage in the other sports. Oddly enough, when looking at the winners of the Stanley Cup, the NHL has the lowest average seed at 2.0 compared to 3.2 and 2.1 from the other sports. This can be attributed to the NFL playing the Super Bowl at a neutral site and the NBA Finals switching to a 2-3-2 home/away/home format.

Of course the actual matchups matter as well, which also supports a caution for the Capitals pursuit of the top spot. At the current standings, the #6 seed would be Montreal, #7 Buffalo, and #8 New York, with Carolina on the outside looking in. DC is a combined 10-3 against the Canadians, Sabres, and Hurricanes this year, while only 1-3 against the Rangers. If they overcome recent injuries and the Flyers for the best record in the conference, the Caps will be facing a New York team that embarrassed them 6-0 and 7-0 already this season.

I do not know about you, but I would want all the luck and matchups I can get for the playoffs, especially after last season’s debacle. So I say, rest some starters tending injuries and get ready for the Sabres.

Defense wins Championships for the Caps?

As the NHL regular season winds down, this year's Capitals team is trying to reverse its postseason fortunes with a new approach. In the past three seasons, Washington’s run and gun style of play has been entertaining, but come playoff time has been lacking the experience and tough defense to advance. Even without drastic roster or coaching changes, there seem to be more and more 1-0 defensive struggle games this season. The stats this year surprisingly show that Boudreau is actually implementing this philosophy.

· In 2008, the Caps were 8^th in the league in goals per game, then third and first last year. This year, they have fallen to 22^nd at 2.63.

· On the other hand, Washington’s goals against were 18^th, 19^th, and 16^th. Now at 2.45 goals per game, their re-dedicated defense ranks 7^th in the league.

· Mirroring these stats, the Capitals went from 6^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd in shots to 12^th now, and 9^th, 13^th, and 18^th in shots against to back to 9^th again.

· Even the goaltending has improved. With two relative rookies in the net this year, the Caps rank 8^th in the league at .916 save %, a far cry from the days of Jose “Three or More” and other veterans at 14^th, 21^st, and 24^th the past three seasons.

· Meanwhile the special teams have drastically changed as well. Going from 25^th in the league in penalty killing last year to 5^th place (85.3%) this year is commendable. However, the Caps are only 25^th (16.1%) in power play percentage this season, after leading the NHL last year, which is probably not what Boudreau had in mind.

How do these stats reflect in wins? Well, the past three seasons they were 13^th, 4^th, and 1^st in standings and were out of the playoffs in the 1^st, 2^nd, and 1^st round. This season the Capitals are only 8^th in the standings, and are probably not going to win their division unlike the previous three years. As for the playoffs this year …

Would the Capitals want to face the Penguins in the Playoffs?

After another thrilling matchup between the Caps and the Pens, Washington has beaten their arch rivals all three times so far this season. The Ovechkin-Crosby rivalry is currently one of the best in sports and is boosting the NHL’s TV ratings. Commissioner Bettman and NBC would be salivating if they continued the showdowns in the playoffs. Washington’s 109 points currently leads the league and would be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Penguins are tied for the #2 seed, therefore if they meet, it won’t be until the Eastern Conference finals.

After the 7 game series defeat last year and decades of playoff misery at the hands of Pittsburgh, should the Caps want to face the Pens again in the playoffs to exercise demons? Or should they root for other teams or upsets for an easier route to a possible cup because the Caps are 40-10-8 against teams in the conference this year? Would a Cup feel less worthy without going through the defending champion Penguins?

Other rivalries and great players have gone through the same vindication. The Red Sox had to overcome the Yankees and the Curse of the Bambino in order to end their World Series drought. Peyton Manning and the Colts had to come from behind against Tom Brady and Patriots to win his first title after getting bumped out of the playoffs by New England twice before. Michael Jordan lost to the Pistons three straight seasons before beating them to advance and win his first title.

Does Ovechkin need to beat Crosby in the playoffs in order to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup? Obviously, this is all assuming both teams even get that far.