The Caps Specialize At Being Uneven

After crushing the Islanders 6-2 the other night, the Capitals are now the NHL leader in two important categories, Power Play Percentage and Penalty Killing Percentage.  The league average for scoring when you are in the power play advantage is 18%, which Washington is leading at 28%. Looking the other way, DC leads the NHL in preventing opponents from scoring on the advantage at 8%, with the same 18% league average.  

Controlling these key moments in the game correlates into victories, as the top ten power play % teams and 8 of the top 10 penalty killing teams currently have winning records. Only once in the past 8 seasons has a team even finished in the top three in both categories at the end of the year, and that team had the best record in the league and made the Cup Finals.

Then why are the Caps only 8-7? Well, when playing at even numbers, they are below average.  Washington has outscored opponents for the season 50-42, but when at even strength they are being outscored 37-33. They are the only team in the NHL with that oddity.

DC may be relying too much on the power play since 35% of their goals are from being up a man, third highest rank in the NHL, when the average is 23%. Keep in mind that teams only average 4 power plays or 8 penalty minutes per a 60 minute game. This means that the Caps are only in each of these situations 12% of the time on the ice, while stinking up the other 76%. How about some more 5 on 5 drills at practice, coach?

Shhhh, The Caps Are Back

After starting 2-8-1, the Capitals have quietly surged back into first place in the division and the playoff hunt. Washington has won five straight and 9 of 11 to climb to atop of the Southeast Division and the #3 seed. It also helps that the three worst teams in the conference are in the division and the Caps would be the 7th seed overall in the playoffs or 8th in the Western conference.

The key to the resurgence has been Alex Ovechkin’s return to MVP form as well. The team captain and leader has scored eight goals in the past five games and is tied for the lead for goals in the NHL. After only scoring two goals in his first ten games, the Great 8 has 20 points in the past 11 games.

Overall the team has turned things around from the beginning of the year. Earlier they were only scoring 2.3 goals a game, now they are putting it in the net 3.7 times, and instead of giving up 3.6 goals a game, the keepers are down to 2.2 a game.  The goalies have improved their save percentage from 88% to 92% and the defense has limited their penalties to 2.3 a game, down from 4.7 earlier.

Maybe the team has finally bought into new coach Adam Oates’s system and these playoffs will be better than the bitter disappointments in previous years.  We shall see…

What is Wrong With the Caps?

Ten games into the lockout shortened season, Washington only has five points, which is dead last in the league standings.  The Capitals have made the playoffs the last five seasons, with four division titles and even the best record in the league just three seasons ago. What happened? Why is DC in the basement with the season already a fifth of the way over?

• Well, you cannot win if you do not score. In the past five seasons the Caps scored an average of 3.1 goals a game, no lower than 2.7, while this season Washington is only scoring 2.3 a game. 
• You also cannot win if you give up a lot of goals either. In the past five seasons the Capitals gave up an average of 2.7 goals a game, no higher than 2.9, while this season DC is letting in 3.6 a game. 
• To go along with that, you need to have a good goalie to win as well. In their playoff seasons the Caps goalies had a 90.9 save percentage, while this season it has slipped to 88%, which is fourth worst in the league.
• The losses cannot be blamed solely on the goalies though. Through ten games, Washington’s defense has already given up 47 power play opportunities and 12 power play goals, both of which are second worst in the NHL. Additionally, the 1.2 and 4.7 per game averages are higher than the five year averages of .7 and 3.8.   
• Maybe Capitals fans blame the losses on the refs, complaining they are not getting equal extra man opportunities.  However, DC’s 8 power play goals on 40 opportunities for a 20% success rate rank in the  middle of the league this season, and are similar averages to their playoff seasons. 
• It certainly does not help that the Caps' best players have not produced to their caliber yet either. All-Star center Nicklas Backstrom only has 8 points, which is tied for 44th in the NHL, while face-of-the-franchise Ovechkin’s 5 points are tied for 123rd. Alex’s .5 points a game are well below his 1.2 five year average and Backstrom’s .8 would be the lowest in his career as well.

What’s next? Departed players/coaches Alexander Semin, Bruce Boudreau, and Dale Hunter do not seem to be the problems this time……

Spring Sports Recap

This year’s #1 spring sports teams fared much better than last year’s edition. Last year, five of my favorite teams were ranked #1 going into the postseason and all of them choked. Luckily this year, of the four teams that made the playoffs, only one went out early. Coincidentally, the team that came in with the least expectations was the one that won a title.

The Capitals came into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league and earned the top seed in the East, only to get swept in the second round to the Lightning. Despite their consecutive early exits the past two seasons, the team seems stuck in the same direction by resigning Brooks Laich to a big deal and retaining Coach Boudreau.

Over the weekend, UVA’s #1 ranked baseball team lost in extra innings to eventual back-to-back champion South Carolina after committing back to back errors, having their star pitcher go out sick, and going 0-14 with runners in scoring position. Despite the excruciating way they were eliminated, the Cavaliers had their best season ever, lasting until the final four teams.

Similarly, the UVA tennis team made the final for the first time in the programs history, but also fell short to the eventual back-to-back champion USC (California, not Carolina this time). Despite being a couple points away from pulling off the come-from behind victory, there is no reason they cannot contend for a title again next year considering they are 68-0 against opponents not named the Trojans.

Oddly enough, my spring sports team that ended up going all the way was the one with the lowest expectations; the #7 ranked lacrosse team. Luckily, there’s a chance they can bring home another trophy next season considering most of the starters will be back next year.

Even though the Cleveland Cavs and Wizards did not even make the playoffs, they got great reviews in the draft, so there is hope all around.

Should the Caps Should Fire Boudreau?

Once again, the Capitals choked in the playoffs, being swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning. After converting 17% of their power plays in the regular season, DC scored on only 2 of their 18 opportunities and 10% for the entire playoffs. Likewise after killing off all but 14.4% of penalties during the regular season, for 2^nd place, the Caps allowed 3 power play goals in 4 games to Tampa. Of course, Washington ran into a hot goalie in Roloson who leads the league in the post season in goals against average and save percentage. Backstrom (2 points in playoffs) and Semin (2 in series) disappeared after averaging almost a point a game in the regular season. What is the aftermath for Boudreau and the Caps after this collapse?

Is the bbq faced, sailor mouthed coach fully to blame for the collapse? While only going 17-20 in the playoffs and losing four of six playoffs series are pretty damning, he has the highest winning percentage of all active coaches. While it looked like the players gave up in the third period of game three and missed opportunities, it is the coach’s responsibility to get the players up for any opponent. During the eight game losing streak back in December, chronicled by HBO’s 24/7, it looked like Boudreau was already losing his players with his absurd profanity laden rants. Maybe the players are to blame as well.

Which players are free agents, need to be traded, and are too soft to win in the playoffs? Arnott, Sturm, Knuble, Laich, Bradley, Gordon, and Hannan are unrestricted free agents and only Laich and Knuble would be worthy to re-sign if they can improve on going to the net. Speaking of soft, figure skater Semin has been re-signed year to year reflecting the management’s lack of faith in his disappearing act in the playoffs and dumb penalties. Meanwhile Green might have improved his defense this year, but his offensive skills too often cause liabilities in the defensive zone. Maybe trading Semin and Green are options for a more defensive minded blue liner and tougher forward since each have only one year left on their contracts.

If firing Boudreau is the option, then who is going to take his place? While the Caps can call up Mark French, who won the Calder Cup for the Hershey Bears last year, they might want to avoid bringing up a minor league coach like Boudreau again. Maybe this team needs a disciplinarian that can handle the superstars’ egos and tendencies to revert back to bad habits when pressed in the playoffs. All I know is that I am growing pretty tired of watching 17 days worth of regular season games the past two seasons only for it to be over in a mere 40 hours.

Should the Caps Want the #1 Seed?

Ever since their nine game winning streak brought them to the top of the conference standings, the Capitals have been chasing the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the East. The top team gets the number one seed in the playoffs and home field advantage. However, when looking at recent NHL playoff history, is this something Washington really wants?

In the past ten NHL playoffs, number one seeds have not fared well, especially in the East. Only two #1 seeds made the Stanley Cup Final with only one winner (Tampa Bay). The average seed in either conference to make the Finals is 3.1, which is higher than in the NFL (2.4) and NBA (2.0) during that time frame. Many things factor into this including hot goalies and more prominent home field advantage in the other sports. Oddly enough, when looking at the winners of the Stanley Cup, the NHL has the lowest average seed at 2.0 compared to 3.2 and 2.1 from the other sports. This can be attributed to the NFL playing the Super Bowl at a neutral site and the NBA Finals switching to a 2-3-2 home/away/home format.

Of course the actual matchups matter as well, which also supports a caution for the Capitals pursuit of the top spot. At the current standings, the #6 seed would be Montreal, #7 Buffalo, and #8 New York, with Carolina on the outside looking in. DC is a combined 10-3 against the Canadians, Sabres, and Hurricanes this year, while only 1-3 against the Rangers. If they overcome recent injuries and the Flyers for the best record in the conference, the Caps will be facing a New York team that embarrassed them 6-0 and 7-0 already this season.

I do not know about you, but I would want all the luck and matchups I can get for the playoffs, especially after last season’s debacle. So I say, rest some starters tending injuries and get ready for the Sabres.

Beware of Caps Winning Streaks

After earlier struggles this year, including an eight game losing streak in December, the Capitals seem to have righted the ship with an eight game winning streak. They are back in first place in the division and one point away from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, looks can be deceiving.

In their eight game winning streak, six games were at home against teams with a combined winning percentage of .438. If the season ended today, only two of the eight teams would be in the playoffs. In addition, only one of the games was decided by more than one goal, against the team with worst record in the league.

The scarier part is that the next six games are all on the road against tougher competition. These teams have a combined .521 percentage and four of the six are playoff teams. One of the non-playoff teams is red hot New Jersey Devils, which has won 22 of its last 27 games.

Sure, teams will have ups and downs during the season, but this is strikingly similar to last season. Around this point last season, Washington rattled off 14 wins in a row, moving into first place. Only six of the 14 were playoff teams for a record of .470 and nine of the games were at the Verizon Center. Then the Caps promptly dropped three in a row, on the road, to teams with a .500 winning percentage.

Still not scared? The team that snapped the winning streak last season and the team Washington plays tonight are the same…the Canadians, and we all know how that ended up last year.

Defense wins Championships for the Caps?

As the NHL regular season winds down, this year's Capitals team is trying to reverse its postseason fortunes with a new approach. In the past three seasons, Washington’s run and gun style of play has been entertaining, but come playoff time has been lacking the experience and tough defense to advance. Even without drastic roster or coaching changes, there seem to be more and more 1-0 defensive struggle games this season. The stats this year surprisingly show that Boudreau is actually implementing this philosophy.

· In 2008, the Caps were 8^th in the league in goals per game, then third and first last year. This year, they have fallen to 22^nd at 2.63.

· On the other hand, Washington’s goals against were 18^th, 19^th, and 16^th. Now at 2.45 goals per game, their re-dedicated defense ranks 7^th in the league.

· Mirroring these stats, the Capitals went from 6^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd in shots to 12^th now, and 9^th, 13^th, and 18^th in shots against to back to 9^th again.

· Even the goaltending has improved. With two relative rookies in the net this year, the Caps rank 8^th in the league at .916 save %, a far cry from the days of Jose “Three or More” and other veterans at 14^th, 21^st, and 24^th the past three seasons.

· Meanwhile the special teams have drastically changed as well. Going from 25^th in the league in penalty killing last year to 5^th place (85.3%) this year is commendable. However, the Caps are only 25^th (16.1%) in power play percentage this season, after leading the NHL last year, which is probably not what Boudreau had in mind.

How do these stats reflect in wins? Well, the past three seasons they were 13^th, 4^th, and 1^st in standings and were out of the playoffs in the 1^st, 2^nd, and 1^st round. This season the Capitals are only 8^th in the standings, and are probably not going to win their division unlike the previous three years. As for the playoffs this year …

Strasburg Adds to the DC and Cleveland Sports Curse

After the latest news that Nat’s rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg tore a ligament in his arm and needs Tommy John surgery, taking him out of next season, I began to think DC sports is cursed, just like Cleveland. Cleveland has the longest title drought of cities with three teams, while DC is the longest with four teams. Well, which is worse?

Both cities main fan base is with football, so we’ll start there. The Browns won multiple titles in the 50’s and 60’s with Jim Brown and Otto Graham but have never been to a Super Bowl. The Redskins have won three Super Bowl titles, but none in the past 18 years. The Browns are infamous for Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, and the move to Baltimore. Washington has Dan Snyder, Norv Turner, Gus Frerotte head butting a wall, and the reattempted fake field goal. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Both cities have an NBA team of similar franchise lengths, with equally tortured pasts. The Cavaliers have never won a title and only appeared in their first final four years ago. The Wizards won a title back in 1978 as the Bullets, but have not made it past the 2nd round since 1982. Cleveland endured the Shot, numerous losses to Jordan in the 90’s, and now the Decision, numerous early playoff exits to the Celtics. DC has suffered through the Jordan/Kwame years and gun totting Gilbert Arenas. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

Since the Nationals have only been around five years, I cannot compare them to the Cleveland baseball team, so I’ll take a look at the Capitals’ failures in comparison to the Indians. The Tribe last won a World Series in 1948 and lost two World Series in the 90’s. The Capitals have never won a Stanley Cup in their 36 year history, failing in their only appearance in 1998. Cleveland is infamous for the baseball version of the Catch, the Major League movies, the Blown Save, The Stop Call, and countless players finding success after bolting. Meanwhile the Caps choked in the playoffs to Pittsburgh seemingly every year in the 90’s and 00’s and endured the Jagr blunder. Unfortunate Loser: Cleveland

That leaves us with the fourth and newest sports franchise in DC, the Natinals, err Nationals. After moving from Montreal, the Nationals have not had a winning season in six seasons, including this season, 20 games below .500. Including two 100 loss seasons, they are already on their third manager, second general manager, and couldn’t even sign their first round pick in 2008. The Strasburg injury is not the first costly one to the Nationals either, with Nick Johnson missing a year with a broken leg, and Jordan Zimmermann requiring Tommy John as well. Loser by Default: Washington

Unfortunately for Cleveland, not only do they appear more cursed, but Washington has more hope for the future with Ovechkin, Backstrom, John Wall, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, a healthy Strasburg, and Redskins with an improved front office. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the remnants of the Lebron-less Cavs, lowly Indians with only Grady Sizemore, and the Browns whose only good young players are a left tackle and kick returner. Loser for being born in Cleveland and living in DC most my life and rooting for these teams: Me

Dog Days of Summer

With only one major sport going on and ESPN bored out of their mind during the lazy dog-dangling days of summer, here are some things to look forward to:

• 4 Days until the Indians trade Shin-Soo Choo, their leader in AVG, HR, RBI, and SB, for a bag of peanuts
• 12 Days until the NFL Hall of Fame Game, opening the preseason
• 37 Days until College Football kicks off
• 38 Days until Strasburg throws a no-hitter against the Pirates, the 10th in the majors this season
• 41 Days until I draft #1 overall in my Fantasy Football League, starting a 10 year dynasty
• 46 Days until UVA plays at USC
• 46 Days until UVA is no longer bowl eligible
• 47 Days until NFL Opening Sunday
• 47 Days until the Browns are out of playoff contention
• 54 Days until Albert Haynesworth goes to one knee faking an injury because he’s winded
• 57 Days until the NHL season begins
• 58 Days until the Caps clinch the Southeast division for the fourth straight year
• 62 Days until Skins fans start calling for McNabb to be benched
• 68 Days until Strasburg strikes out 16 Mets in a 1-0 loss giving the Nat’s 100 losses for the third year in a row
• 68 Days until Peyton Manning throws 6 TDs and 400 yards against the Jags, but my fantasy team still loses since I have no one else
• 75 Days until Albert Haynesworth needs to be carted off because of a knee injury because he’s winded
• 82 Days until Mike Holmgren comes down from the front office to coach the Browns to victory over the Steelers, improving their record to 1-5
• 92 Days until Bosh, Wade and Lebron all simultaneously tear their ACLs coming down off of a fun bunch style high-five during warm-ups of NBA’s opening day
• 93 Days until the Wizards lose their opener despite 20 assists from Wall and Arenas to each other, since they have no one else to pass to
• 111 Days until Albert Haynesworth demands to be traded because the new defensive scheme is too hard for him and is causing him to be winded too often
• 123 Days until UVA tries to end its 6 game losing streak to VT
• 123 Days until Ohio State tries to extend its 6 game winning streak over UMich
• 158 Days until the Winter Classic in which Crosby will complain it’s too cold outside and will force the Caps to play in the new igloo instead of Heinz Field

The Five Choke Special

After UVA baseball collapsed in the super regional last night, the spring of disappointment is now complete. That’s five #1 ranked teams, zero titles.

As noted in an earlier post, the Caps had their best regular season in team history, but bowed out in the first round. The Cleveland Cavaliers won 60 games again, but were upset by the Celtics in 6 games in the second round, and might have a bigger loss if Lebron leaves.

Meanwhile, UVA’s spring sports joined the choking list. The men’s tennis team continued their trend of going nearly perfect all year only to lose in the NCAA semi-finals, taking their three year record to 102-4 with no titles. A week later, the lacrosse team lost to eventual champ Duke in the final seconds, ended a season where the only losses all year were to the Blue Devils. To end the heartbreak spring playoff runs, UVA baseball hosted their first ever super-regional and were one win away from returning to the College World Series, only to lose back to back games for the first time all year, ending their season and this torturous spring playoff season with a 11-0 embarrassing beatdown.

Well, now its time to turn to the fall. Oh, great.

Cavs and Caps Epic Playoff Fail

Well that was a disastrous spring. My sweet playoff beard for the Caps and Cavs lasted all of two rounds, barely a month. They both had the best records in the league, Presidents Cup, MVP, all for nothing. Now the future of both teams are cloudy. Obviously Lebron can leave after July 1, but the Cavs need to retool to keep him here. Shaq is too old and slow, Jamison is too soft, Mo Williams is too inconsistent, but there are many promising free agents to be Lebron’s Pippen if he wants to stay. Meanwhile, the Caps need to resign Backstrom, who is the key to the offense, as well as find a shutdown defenseman who is not looking to score first, like Green. At least the Nats are going on a World Series run and have their own savior.

It's Playoff (Beard) Time!

This week begins the time honored tradition of growing facial hair for your favorite teams in their playoff push. Whether it be full beards or patches of peach fuzz, you gotta support the team, especially since it’s for charity. Unless of course, you’re Crosby, and its just embarrassing.

Would the Capitals want to face the Penguins in the Playoffs?

After another thrilling matchup between the Caps and the Pens, Washington has beaten their arch rivals all three times so far this season. The Ovechkin-Crosby rivalry is currently one of the best in sports and is boosting the NHL’s TV ratings. Commissioner Bettman and NBC would be salivating if they continued the showdowns in the playoffs. Washington’s 109 points currently leads the league and would be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Meanwhile, the Penguins are tied for the #2 seed, therefore if they meet, it won’t be until the Eastern Conference finals.

After the 7 game series defeat last year and decades of playoff misery at the hands of Pittsburgh, should the Caps want to face the Pens again in the playoffs to exercise demons? Or should they root for other teams or upsets for an easier route to a possible cup because the Caps are 40-10-8 against teams in the conference this year? Would a Cup feel less worthy without going through the defending champion Penguins?

Other rivalries and great players have gone through the same vindication. The Red Sox had to overcome the Yankees and the Curse of the Bambino in order to end their World Series drought. Peyton Manning and the Colts had to come from behind against Tom Brady and Patriots to win his first title after getting bumped out of the playoffs by New England twice before. Michael Jordan lost to the Pistons three straight seasons before beating them to advance and win his first title.

Does Ovechkin need to beat Crosby in the playoffs in order to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup? Obviously, this is all assuming both teams even get that far.

Cavs and Cavs and Caps Oh My

Even though it’s a snowy February, and the sports world is focused on the Super Bowl, my favorite spring teams are heating up. The Capitals and Lebron’s Cavaliers are on long winning streaks, while UVa had a long winning streak recently snapped, but bounced back at defending champ UNC. The Caps and Cavs now have the best records in their league, and UVa is only a half a game out of first place in the ACC. Here is a look at their recent runs by the numbers:

Caps:

• 12: Franchise record winning streak
• 1: Loss since Ovechkin was named captain 29 days ago
• 15: Number of wins out of 16 since January 5^th
• 58: Goals scored by the Caps during the streak, compared to
• 27: Goals allowed
• 0: Losses at home in 2010
• 4: Games I attended
• 1: Broken jaw off of an Ovechkin shot
• 3: Unleash the Furies
• 48: Zamboni rides

Cleveland Cavaliers:

• 10: Game winning streak
• 4: Wins over Wade, Bosh, and Kobe
• 14: Margin of lead in Central Division
• 1: Amount of times Lebron rapped to himself while inbounding the ball
• 27: Annoying Lebron puppet commercials
• 115: Flops by Anderson Varejao
• 6: 3-pointers attempted by 7’3” Zydrunas Ilgauskas
• 2: Injuries to key guards Mo Williams and Delonte West

Virginia Cavaliers:

• 8: Game winning streak
• 6: Years since having a streak that long
• 3: Wins against top 25 teams
• 18.2: Scoring average for Landesberg, 3^rd in the ACC
• 11: ACC preseason rank
• 0: Shirts sweat through by Tony Bennett
• 1: "In the face!!!" throw down dunk
  

While these numbers are all well and good, and make for some fun entertainment in between NFL playoff games, there are four other important numbers:

• 36: Days until the ACC tournament
• 68: Days until the NHL playoffs
• 71: Days until the NBA playoffs
• 0: Combined titles for the Caps, Cavs, and Cavs

Hopefully these teams will have hot streaks when it matters in the spring.

(Photo is an actual screenshot during the end of Tuesday’s game w/ Craig Laughlin writing in the 11, courtesy of the DC Sports Bog)