Could Johnny Football become Johnny Cleveland?

As the NFL Draft on Thursday nears, I thought it was a good time to assess the Brown’s options. Once again, Cleveland is coming off of a disappointing year and will draft fourth overall.  Luckily the Browns have seven picks in the first four rounds to help improve the team. Cleveland filled some of their team needs by signing Ben Tate (RB), Karlos Dansby (LB), and Donte Whitner (CB) during the offseason, but still have a glaring hole at QB. While Brian Hoyer showed some flashes last season, the Browns could draft a QB for the long term future.

Drafting in the first round has not been Cleveland’s strong suit recently since their return in 1999. If you take a quick glance at the players below, you can see why the Browns might be best served by trading down in the first round while still getting a QB later in the draft.

Given this putrid history, there is no guarantee a non-QB will be successful anyways, so why not go for the polarizing QB Johnny “Football” Manziel? While WR Sammy Watkins is another rumored pick, who is going to throw the ball to him and All-Pro Josh Gordon? Drafting the former Heisman winner will certainly boost interest and sales for a franchise that has averaged 24th in attendance the past five years and has not had a player in the top 25 in jersey sales in three years. There are certainly plenty of positives to his game, including making/extending plays with his feet, while still throwing 63 TDs/22 Ints with 69% completion % in the SEC. His detractors point out his 6’1” height and the increased abilities of NFL defenders to track him down and cause turnovers. Will he be the next Russell Wilson or the next Tim Tebow? Only time will tell. He certainly will join an exclusive club:

NFL Rookie Quarterback Party!

This week, Russell Wilson, the rookie quarterback for Seattle, was named the Week 1 starter for the Seahawks. He joins Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden as rookie signal callers starting the season opener. That means an astounding 16% of NFL teams are going into the season with their most important position never having taken a NFL snap.

Since the historic Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf draft back in 1998, there have only been 13 rookie quarterbacks to start the season opener, compared to five just this year alone. None of those previous 14 seasons had more than two rookies starting in Week 1. During this time frame, 39 QB’s were taken in the first round and only 11 started the opener, or 28%, compared to five of the first six QB’s drafted this year. Meanwhile some star quarterbacks held the clipboard their entire rookie seasons, like Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

How did these brave young passers fare? Well, not surprisingly, they struggled. Of the 13 rookies who started the openers, only 5 or 38% of them had winning records for the season; 38% threw over 3000 yards, 23% threw more TD’s than INT’s, and only 15% had more than 20 TD’s. Unfortunately resting the prized QB does not seem to help either. Of the 37 rookies who started at least five games, only 37% had more TD’s than INT’s, 24% had winning records, 18% threw over 3000 yards, and only 10% had more than 20 TD’s.

Does this mean teams should shelter their face of the franchise to the film room all season instead? Not necessarily.  Some rookies clearly struggled and never recovered, like Leaf (3-7, 2 TD, 15 INT), Akili Smith (1-5, 2 TD, 6 INT), Jimmy Clausen (1-11, 3 TD, 9 INT) and David Carr (4-12, 9 TD, 15 INT). Meanwhile some were able to grow from their difficult rookie seasons like Eli Manning (1-6, 6 TD, 9 INT), Michael Vick (1-4, 2 TD, 3 INT) and Matt Stafford (2-8, 13 TD, 20 INT). Not all rookies stumbled out of the gate though as evidenced by Matt Ryan (11-6, 18 TD, 13 INT), Big Ben (14-2, 20 TD, 16 INT) and Joe Flacco (13-6, 15 TD, 15 INT).  But beware the early successes as well since some rookies careers did not take off after enjoying a solid rookie season like Jason Campbell (10 TD, 6 INT), Shaun King (5-2, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Vince Young (8-6).

Even though rookie quarterbacks are such a mixed bag, five teams are resting their future on them due to the ever shifting passing oriented dominance of the NFL.  Of the nine signal callers drafted in the past two seasons that started, only two of them did not throw more TDs than INTs and those two (McCoy and Clausen) have already had two 1^st round draft picks take their place. Meanwhile last year, Andy Dalton (9-7, 20 TD, 13 INT) lead his team to the playoffs and Cam Newton (4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 14 rushing TDs) broke all kinds of records.

With opening weekend only a week away, we will soon find out whether these rookie quarterbacks will make their coaches and GM’s geniuses or unemployed.  

What are the Browns' Draft Options?

The Browns have the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and since the first three picks are practically already signed, all eyes are on Cleveland. This is the fourth draft in a row the Browns are picking in the top seven, and tenth time this high in the 14 drafts since their return.  What have they done with all these high picks? Only one All-Pro and 13 busts. Outside of Joe Thomas, only three drafted Browns have made one Pro Bowl and just once each. That is three combined pro bowl seasons from 106 of 107 draft selections.

With this history of futility, who are the Browns going to erroneously pick this year? This website compiles all the mock drafts performed across the internet and of the 212 most recent ones, 76% choose Trent Richardson, 10% Justin Blackmon, and 8% for Ryan Tannehill. Here are the breakdowns for each choice:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama:

Pros: The Crimson Tide runner is a bruising back that has pass catching and protection skills as well. He is considered the most complete back since Adrian Peterson five years ago. Richardson will energize an offense that faces three AFC North teams which each made the playoffs with top 7 defenses specializing on stopping the run.

Cons:  Running backs have a very short shelf life and with the increasing use of committee backfields, #4 overall is high for a back. You can easily get a good running back later in the draft, since the difference between the fifth best back and 25^th best is not as great as other positions drafted this high.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State:

Pros: The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner would be a much needed explosive target for Colt McCoy. The Browns lead the league in drops last year and pairing him with Greg Little would open up the offense.

Cons: Considering all the holes on the Browns roster, drafting a player who only touches the ball a half dozen times a game at fourth overall will not be a great value.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M:

Pros: The Aggie quarterback shot up the draft board after his pro day and could be the franchise passer the Browns need to compete with Flacco, Dalton, and Big Ben.

Cons: The pick would be a desperate move for a franchise grasping for a QB after Luck and Griffin are taken. Tannehill has only played 19 games at quarterback after playing WR for the Aggies.

Trade down:

Pros: The Browns need players, not a player. They lost their top running back and right tackle to free agency and lack a franchise QB and #1 caliber WR on the 29^th ranked offense. Their OLB will be suspended for bounty hunting and need improvement at DE, FS, and #2 CB. They can pass on Blackmon and get WR Floyd at #15, avoid Richardson and get RB Martin at #37, or ignore project Tannehill and get QB Weeden at #44.  They could even trade down to bolster the right side of the line with G David DeCastro.

Cons: Cleveland already has 13 picks this year and what is the point of drafting multiple later busts instead of one at #4. They will not be able to fix everything this year, and can pair Blackmon or Richardson with QB Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.

I believe that the Browns should trade down since they need all the help they can get and only RG3 and Luck are difference makers in this draft.

The Unsung Brown Joe Thomas Gets His Due

Finally, the Browns were able to do something right. This morning, Cleveland extended Left Tackle Joe Thomas’s contract for seven years, $84 million. Why is spending $44 million guaranteed on a lineman a great move? Only because Thomas has made the Pro Bowl in each of his four seasons, and first team All-Pro twice already. He was voted the top left tackle in the league, and has never missed a start. The Browns now have the anchor of their line and protector of their quarterback locked down for another seven seasons.

While the Browns first round draft futility has been discussed before on this blog, Thomas’s success so far shines a new light on it. He has made four Pro Bowls already while the previous 14 players Cleveland drafted his year or earlier have a combined two. Even the last 23 only have a combined four All-Pro selections, compared to Thomas’s three (two first team, one second team). You have to go all the way back to the 1978 draft class of Clay Matthews Jr and Ozzie Newsome to find a comparably solid first round draft selection, and Clay Matthews III is now in the league!

Browns and Skins Should Trade Their 1st Round Pick

Now that the NFL draft is upon us, I felt it was appropriate to update the Browns first round futility post I made earlier last fall. After Cleveland traded Braylon Edwards mid-season I thought their first round draft choice track record could not get any worse. I was way wrong, since during the offseason the front office shipped out pretty boy Brady Quinn and fellow first round pick Kamerion Wimbley. That leaves only Joe Thomas and last year’s pick, Alex Mack, remaining on the team. That’s two players out of their eleven first round draft picks since their reincarnation still on the roster. That 18% retention rate is the worst in the league, with the Skins coming in second at 30%. While one of the top offensive tackles (Okung, Bulaga, Williams) would be a good fit in Chris Samuels absence for the Skins, and the Browns need a defensive game changer like Eric Berry, the evidence points to both teams trading down. Hopefully the new Holmgren and Bruce Allen/Shanahan regimes in DC and Cleveland can reverse these trends. The Browns might as well do this. Here is the updated chart.

Browns 1st Rd Futility

After the Browns traded Braylon Edwards last month, he joined an infamous list of Cleveland Browns first round failures since their reincarnation in 1999. Here’s the company he joins:

· 1999 – #1 overall pick - Tim Couch, no longer on the team, out of football
· 2000 – #1 - Courtney Brown, no longer on the team, out of football
· 2001 – #3 - Gerard Warren, no longer on the team
· 2002 – #16 - Willie Green, arrested for drunk driving and marijuana possession in 03, no longer on the team, out of football
· 2003 – #21 - Jeff Faine, traded
· 2004 – #6 - Kellen Winslow II, self-proclaimed soldier, tore his ACL popping wheelies on a motorcycle, traded
· 2005 – #3 -Braylon Edwards, led league in drops last season, got into a fight outside a night club, traded
· 2006 - #13 -Kamerion Wimbley, still on the team, but rumored to be traded
· 2007 – #3 - Joe Thomas, still on the team
· 2007 – #22 -Brady Quinn, still on the team, but rumored to be traded
· 2009 – #21 - Alex Mack, still on the team

That’s only four remaining players on the team out of the eleven drafted. I began to think how bad could this 36% retention rate actually be as compared to the rest of the NFL during this time frame? The Lions drafted several bust receivers in a row, Cincinnati and Oakland have been laughing stocks for a while, but how is their draft success percentage compare to the Browns? Well, as it turns out, you guessed it, Cleveland is dead last. Here is the chart below:

Where does your team rank? (if you click on it, its more readable)

Some of the methodology and notes:
· San Diego has the highest success rate at an astounding 90%, and the most remaining players at nine.
· Washington and Chicago also have only four remaining players, but had one less draft pick than the Browns.
· Miami has only drafted seven players, but six are still on the team.
· Detroit, San Francisco, and New York Jets had the most picks at 14.
· Houston still counts since they have had nine picks, which is about average.
· The asterisks:
o Jevon Kearse left Tennessee and came back, so I included him.
o I did not count Larry Johnson.
o I did not count Chris Samuels or Sean Taylor.
· The NFC South has the best percentage at 67%, while the NFC West is worst at 44%.
· I could weight the picks, since the Colts and Pats picks during this time frame weren’t in the top three overall five times, like the Browns, but that’s for a different day.
· I’m sure there’s some correlation I could do between standings and these rankings, but also for another day.