Runningback’s Decline Not Just Due to Turning 30

In the world of fantasy football, there are many theories and clichés to predict a player’s rise and fall. The “third year receiver”, “handcuff” your runningback, and “avoid kickers and defenses” theories are common, and I have even written about the “30 year old RB wall” one previously. Further research goes beyond just the age of RB’s, but at carries and performance to predict their decline as well.

When looking runningback stats from the past 13 seasons, there are some interesting trends about the decline of a RB’s performance from year to year.  There are certain benchmarks signifying a good season that RB’s strive to meet year to year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 123 10 rushing touchdown seasons, but only 49 (40%) of those RB’s got at least 10 TD’s the next year.
2. Of the RB’s who were in the top #10 in scoring that year, only 47 (39%) were in the top #10 the following season.
3. 63 RB’s scored 150 fantasy points or more in a season, with only 21 (33%) reaching that mark the next year.
4. The 1,500 yard rushing mark has been eclipsed 51 times, but only repeated 13 times or 25%.

What does this mean for last year’s RB’s? Four RB’s had seasons last year that fit each of the criteria above, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore.  Following the percentages above, only one or two of those RB’s will reach those benchmarks again.  Frank Gore has played seven full seasons and is already 30, and Lynch had never been over 1500 yards or 150 points before in his six year career, so they are good bets from that group to regress.

There is another factor to look at besides players peaking, which is the amount of carries. Runningbacks take a pounding carrying the ball throughout the season, and thus have shorter careers as compared to quarterbacks or wide receivers.  This wear and tear leads to decreasing point production the following year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 21 RB’s that carried the ball 370+ times in a season, and 19 (90%) of them had a decrease in points the next season for an average of 40% less points.
2. 34 RB’s with 350+ carries, with 28 (82%) decreasing an average of 36%.
3. 49 340+ carries, with 41 (84%) decreasing an average of 50%.
4. 104 300+ carries, with 73 (70%) decreasing an average of 48%.

As far as last year’s RB’s go, Foster and Peterson had 370+ carries, while Lynch had 340+ and Gore had 300+. Ray Rice had 340+ carries and met some of the earlier criteria as well. Two other RB’s got 300+ carries but were rookies or second year players, Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley.  Following the percentages, you would expect all of these RB’s, except the two young ones, to see a decrease in point totals next year.  

Therefore, when it comes to draft day, I would avoid some of these workhorses who are not likely to repeat their performances and opt for younger RB’s who are coming into their primes. 

In Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks are now a Dime a Dozen

Now that the preseason of the NFL has begun, it is a perfect time to start researching for your Fantasy Football drafts at the end of the month.  For the first time in years, I am also in a seasonal draft format in addition to the keeper/dynasty league. Seasonal drafts require totally different strategies and research.  

The key to these leagues is when to draft each position. Traditionally, the first two rounds are reserved for running backs with a couple star quarterbacks and wide receivers sprinkled in. Then after locking up your top two RBs, you would move on to QB and WR before drafting kickers and defenses in the later rounds. However, the recent trends of RBs by committee and the pass happy NFL could force a change in this routine. In fact, four of the top six passing yard seasons in NFL history were last season. Meanwhile, only two RBs carried more than 300 times for over 1300 yards last season, compared to ten times just five seasons ago.  Does this mean QBs are more valuable and therefore should be drafted earlier while RBs can slide to later rounds? Not necessarily.

Most leagues award six or four points to TDs thrown by a QB, compared to six for a regular TD by a RB or WR. Obviously QBs are going to be more heavily weighted since the top QBs score 40+ TDs a year while the top RBs/WRs get 15 TDs.  That also means that average QBs outscore the top position players as well. Of the top 25 scorers last year, 19 were quarterbacks.  Alex Smith (238 points) and Andy Dalton (248) scored roughly the same amount as top RBs LeSean McCoy (266) and Arian Foster (239). Even though only 12 QBs will be starting in FFL week to week, the lowest ranked one will still roughly throw 4,000 yards and 20 TDs. This means that QBs are less valuable than ever before.

The current draft rankings reflect this devaluing of the QB position.  Only four of the top 21 players are QBs, and ten of the top 71. That means owners are still drafting their starting QB in rounds 6-8 with players like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Matt Schaub. Meanwhile the top 24 RBs and WRs, or two each per team, are gone by round 6. Since the record books are flying out the window, owners know QBs can be drafted with a high value later on.

If you project the scoring, you can see how scarce RBs and other positions are compared to QBs. The average projected point totals by position in round 6 mentioned above are 340 QB, 148 RB and 135 WR. There is a 45% drop off in points between the RBs and WRs in the 1^st round to the 7^th round compared to just a 30% drop for QBs. Meanwhile the difference between the top kicker and the 15^th kicker and the top defense and 10^th defense is only 20 points, hence why those two positions are usually drafted dead last. Therefore you still need to grab a top RB early since the only ones left after the top 24 are the second fiddles in the committee (Jonathon Stewart, Peyton Hillis, CJ Spiller, Michael Bush, etc).

Despite all the gaudy record-breaking numbers last year, in fantasy football, the QB is still not the glamour position, since you can still make the title game with Colt McCoy or Rex Grossman as your QB as was the case in our league last year. 

Who’s ready for some FFL? A case study of Wide Receivers vs Running Backs in Keeper Leagues

Now that preseason games are starting, there is no better time to talk about Fantasy Football. The other day, I received encouraging word that one of my players, Terrell Owens, might be 100% recovered from his torn ACL he injured earlier this spring. Despite TO’s on and off the field detrimental antics to his teammates, he has actually been an outstanding and consistent fantasy player. In his 15 year career he has scored at least 50 fantasy points 14 times, and was top ten in wide receiver scoring in ten of those seasons. Likewise, other Hall of Fame bound receivers, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, had similar productive careers. This got me to thinking, how do running backs compare? Do they have as long or as consistent careers as receivers? I looked at fantasy scoring in the past ten seasons, and the career paths of the top WR and RB’s, and noticed some interesting trends:

• Of the top ten overall scorers at both positions in the past decade, there were 97 50 pts+ seasons for WR’s, while only 74 for RB’s.
• When looking at the top ten ranked RB’s and WR’s on draft boards this year, only three of the RB’s were even in the league five seasons ago (Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner-a backup then), while six of the WR’s were active.
• When looking at those same top ten ranked players, the RB’s only have a combined 28 50 pts+ seasons, compared to 43 by WR’s.
• Not only are the RB’s careers shorter in comparison, but the stats are declining since NFL teams are increasing the use of “running backs by committee”. The top ten RB’s averaged 340 carries, 1,540 yards, and 15 tds in 2005, but now only 312 carries, 1,340 yards, and 11 tds, a 10-20% decline.

While 50 pts+ seasons might not win yearly leagues, for keeper or dynasty leagues, in which you keep 8 players season to season, the consistency is gold. For instance, if you had Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, and Arian Foster on your team last year, you probably won the title, but would not have kept any of those players going into the season. Seven to ten year veteran WR’s like Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson are still in their prime and are in the top ten in their position. Meanwhile, younger veteran RB’s Turner and Jackson mentioned earlier are beginning to wear down and are a year or two from the 30 year old drop off. When looking at this year’s draft class, rookies Daniel Thomas, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, DeMarco Murray, and Roy Helu will be drafted early in hopes of a handful of 100 pts+ seasons. Meanwhile, WR’s like Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Greg Little are more likely to produce a decade of 50 pts+ seasons, which is more productive in the long run and an better model for a dynasty league.

What Really Matters When Picking a Super Bowl Champ

Just like last week, I have no idea who to root for in the upcoming NFL conference championship games. All the teams remaining have won a Super Bowl before. Therefore, I must find some more categories to choose from in order to pick two teams to root for this weekend.

· The Jets still have the longest Super Bowl victory drought, appearance drought, and only one title, like the Bears, so they get all the points here. Meanwhile the Steelers have the most rings and won the most recently.

· Since they made money for me during the FFL season, I’ll cheer for the Packers’ Jennings, Jones, and Starks over Holmes and the Jets. (Actually, I cannot remember ever having a Steeler, Raven or Patriot on my team.)

· I like my teams to obey the law, so the Jets win this category since they have only had 8 arrests in the past 10 years, compared to the Bears’ 18 (blame Tank Johnson). (There is actually a website that tracks this.)

· Each victory over the Browns is a dagger to my heart, therefore I do not mind the four losses to the Bears compared to 62 to the Steelers.

· I would like a high scoring, close Super Bowl, so I would choose the Packers (388 points scored in the regular season) over the Bears (only 334) and the Jets (10.6 average game point difference) over the Steelers (12.4).

· Since all the attention will be on the quarterbacks, I should probably choose a favorite to help my decision. Even though Jay Cutler gets a tough rap while battling with diabetes, Rodgers dealt with Favre and throws TD’s to Jennings on my FFL team. While Mark Sanchez is a pretty boy who beat UVa on my birthday, no one outside of Pittsburgh will be pulling for Big Ben with his list of transgressions.

· None of these teams are “home” teams to DC, but Pittsburgh is barely closer than NYC, while Green Bay is 900 miles away.

· Being from the two most cursed cities for pro teams, I need to take the cities’ other teams into account. NY has the Yankees, while Pittsburgh has the Penguins, so they’re out, while Green Bay only has the Packers.

· New York has 8.3 million people as compared to Green Bay’s 101,000, so I’m rooting for the small town team.

· These two cheesy mascots won’t get my fanhood.

· I have to give the edge to Pittsburgh when it comes to fans though for the terrible towels, which look better than a bunch of cheeseheads. Fireman Ed and the J-E-T-S cheer is a little simple for my taste, but not as bad as the Bear’s Fight Song.

· All this writing is making me hungry, so which famous food from these cities would I take? While a NY bagel, Pittsburgh Primanti Brothers Sandwich, and Chicago deep dish pizza sound good, I’d take a bratwurst stuffed with Wisconsin cheddar anyday.

· Speaking of cheese, you have to like a team named after a cheese packing company that owned the team 90 years ago, but naming a team after the city’s main industry that embodies the character of both the team and its people is really cool. Especially since the Jets were named to be “modern”, and the Bears because football players are big. Lame.

· Lastly, while everyone is on the betting bandwagon for the Packers to win the Super Bowl (5 to 7), the Bears are the most popular team (11.5 Google results) and are the underdog to win it all (5 to 1).

After ranking all 20 categories, the Packers come out on top, followed by the Jets. Go Pack!

Football Week 2 Recap/Week 3 Preview

Just like last week, my fantasy teams went 3-0, while my real teams struggled.

Browns 16, Chiefs 14 – Different QB, barely different score, same result. With Seneca Wallace at the helm Cleveland once again took a lead into half only to squander it with penalties and turnovers. Even though Cribbs had a sweet 65 yard td bomb, his talents are still being underutilized on a team devoid of talent. Now after starting 0-2, Cleveland faces a murderous schedule and another high draft pick. Good thing I don’t have season tickets to those games.

Redskins 27, Texans 30 – Much better game from the Skins offense. McNabb looks legit and a great trade for the Skins so far. Portis got two TD’s and the D looked solid until blowing the 17 point lead. Landry is a beast with another11 tackles, three qb hits and a sack. Schaub would have been having nightmares of him blitzing all night if he hadn’t chucked the rock in the comeback like his UVA days. With Dallas faltering at 0-2, and the Eagles and Giants with issues, Washington could be in contention for the division all year and hopefully a playoff spot.

Colts 38, Giants 14 – Indy decided to run the ball for the first time in three years, and by the time the GMen realized they didn’t need eight defensive backs the game was over. Watching Freeney and Mathis coming across the edge after Eli reminded me of playing Madden ’02 back in the day. Big sigh of relief for the season, but now its Schuab vs Peyton for the division.

Merlins 52, Holdbacks 43 – After another solid performance from Manning in addition to two one-yard Portis touchdowns I was able to build up a nice lead going into the Monday night game. Luckily the Saints D held off Drew Brees for a nine point victory. Now I’m in first place all by myself in the division after being in dead last a season ago.

Mountain Goats 45, Lions 42 – Luckily it was an off week for both teams, and I eeked out a three point victory. Not a good sign that my leading scorer was my kicker. Now I’m one of three teams at 2-0 left.

Wahoos 144, Stallions 126 – I scored the most points of any team this week, even though Chris Johnson only scored two points. Meanwhile the Stallions scored the second most points of the week and lost, sucks to be them. The only benefit of Schaub beating the Skins was 29 points for this team.

Week 3:

Browns @ Ravens – Uhhhh….Good Luck

Cavs vs VMI Keydets – The Cavaliers are facing their second D-2 school this season, which means this game does not even count towards bowl eligibility. With any luck the UVa team that soundly beat Richmond shows up, instead of the one that lost to William and Mary last season. It should be a rout on a nice fall day to give backups and injured starters like Dowling some much needed playing time, but you never know. With FSU, GT, and UNC coming up, everything should fine tuned and ready to go.

Redskins @ Rams – Rookie QB making his third start against McNabb and the strong Washington D, the Skins better win. Hopefully its not a repeat of last years 9-7 squeaker.

Colts @ Broncos- A lot more interesting matchup than the other two. Two 1-1 teams. Champ Bailey vs Reggie Wayne. Hopefully week 2 Indy shows up, not week 1.

Merlins vs Harriers – The brother rivalry continues. I face off against Nate for at least the 30^th time, but for one of the earliest times in the season. He’s 0-2 and is a six point underdog. Speaking of brothers, its Eli vs Peyton as well. Cute.

Mountain Goats vs Chopperlicious - Against another team that has Eli. Sure hope Erryn does not find out how much I’ll be rooting against the Giants this weekend.

Wahoos vs Team Turk – 2-0 vs 2-0, I better keep up the team of the week performances to stay undefeated this week.

FFL Decision 2010: Mathews, Best or Spiller?

After winning two Fantasy Football Bowl titles in three years and posting the longest winning streak in South Run Oaks FFL history in the other year, my team nosedived last year, finishing in last place. Peyton Manning was still his solid MVP self, but the rest of my team got old (Terrell Owens, Clinton Portis), injured (Anthony Gonzalez, Felix Jones), or forgot how to catch touchdowns (Greg Jennings, TJ Houshmandzadeh). Therefore, I now have the first pick in the draft coming up and am in desperate need of a young franchise runningback. Since we are in a 12-team, 8-player dynasty league, my options are limited to the rookies and three in particular. Ryan Mathews of San Diego should be the starter on the Chargers in week 1, while Jahvid Best of the Lions and CJ Spiller of the Bills are more talented prospects, but are on less talented teams. It’s a tough decision for a new face of the Syracuse Merlins franchise to return to glory. Therefore, I solicited some advice from some strangers, experts, friends and enemies.

Strangers (random users on ESPN’s FFL message boards):

· “I would go with Best”
· “Stick with Mathews”
· “Mathews....Best and CJ might be injury prone.”
· “Spiller is the best long term prospect, though he'll probably sign a four or five year deal with the Bills and that means he's not a better prospect than Mathews for a long time. You have to take Mathews, he's good enough to be the starter in SD for a long time, and that’s more valuable than being the starter in Buffalo”
· “I still think you gotta like Mathews best, even in that format. Who knows when (or if) the Lions or Bills be good enough for Best or Spiller to be fantasy studs? The Chargers are ready right now. Running back shelf life is so short that I'd really weight the current pretty heavily. Take Mathews.”
· “Best is defiantly a better rookie RB than Mathews spiller and Tate, no questions”
· “Best and Spiller won’t even be the guy. They still have Kevin Smith and Mo Morris, and Fred Jackson and Lynch. Mathews is easily better than any other rookie”

Experts (ESPN’s FFL writers):

· “Ryan Mathews is the clear preseason favorite to lead rookies in fantasy scoring, Mathews looks like an early-down starter right away, with Darren Sproles operating as a third-down back and all-around threat. He was the NCAA's leading rusher last year and is a good player, but his talent is not sublime. And Mathews is a guy coming off a 276-carry season his last year at Fresno State.”
· “Jahvid Best has had elbow, shoulder and hip surgeries, plus his collegiate career ended early after a concussion. But he's impressed his pro coaches so much this spring and summer, it looks like he'll be an every-down player, too, especially with Kevin Smith likely to begin the year on the PUP list. If he stays healthy, this kid could be a big-play threat on the order of Chris Johnson. His health and his offensive line are in question, but his quickness and speed aren't.”
· “C.J. Spiller was my favorite rookie going into the draft, but landing in Buffalo did him no favors. Fred Jackson is a very good player and may lead the team in between-the-tackles carries, and for now Marshawn Lynch is also around. But Spiller has home-run speed, and the Bills will line him up in several spots to get him in mismatches. Plus he's likely one Jackson injury away from a starting gig, albeit behind what might be the worst offensive line in the NFL.”

Friends (Friends who play FFL but are not in my league):

· “Go with Best”
· “I like Best, he is going to play, and Lions offense should get better. Spiller is on a terrible team so who knows what #'s he will put up. Matthews, I just don’t know about him, I am still trying to figure out why everyone is so high on him.”
· “I think the consensus is that Matthews is walking into the starting role where as they may be more competition for the other two.”
· “I think Mathews is your best bet, the Lions always have a crappy o-line. Then again, Spiller could wind up good too. But he plays for the Bills....Given LT's success in SD though, I'd go Mathews”

Enemies (Fellow owners in the SRO League):

· “Barring any big changes in camp, you have a tough choice between Best and Mathews. If the draft was today, Mathews is your man but after camp gets going things might show up - bad hands, bad blocker, so won't see field as much.”
· “I don’t think you can go wrong with Mathews or Best. The Lions aren’t very good but they are getting better and Best is more talented than Mathews. I think Mathews has the best chance for success early but I just think Best is a much more talented player, Spiller as well”

Now all I have is the month of August to decide.