How Historic is UVA’s Defense?

The #2 Virginia men's basketball team's defense is ranked first in the country, allowing only 50.8 points per game, with #1 Kentucky at their heels at 51.8. But how historically low is that number?

Last year UVA led the nation in this category as well, but at 55.7 points per game. The year before the leader was Stephen F. Austin at 51.2. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find a stingier defense, when Princeton held its opponents to a mere 48 points a game.  (That is roughly 325 teams in the country for 22 years, or over 7,100 total seasons before finding a better defense.) In 1992, UVA's coach Tony Bennett was playing in college. Here is the list of the leaders by year:

Tony Bennett fans should recognize a couple of those teams, including his 2009 Washington State team and his father Dick Bennett’s 2001 Wisconsin team.

How about just looking at Virginia’s history? How does this year’s Cavaliers squad compare to the 109 other seasons of UVA basketball history through 23 games? Bennett’s 2012 and 2013 teams were smothering defenses as well, but with a slightly higher average of 53 points per game. Earlier coaches Dave Leitao and Pete Gillen were not known for defense and their teams averaged 72 points a game. You would think the great Ralph Sampson would have contributed to historic defensive teams as well, but they allowed 62 points a game.  Even the ‘60s UVA teams allowed an average of 80 points a game. That is 60% more scoring allowed per game even without a shot clock or 3 point line. That could be why the program went 69-176 (.281) that decade. You have to go all the way back to the 1946 season to find a Virginia team giving up less than 50 points a game.

Check out the results from that year:

Talk about an easy schedule. UNC and Duke only once? VMI and W&L twice?

(Interestingly enough a lot of the opponents around that time were military schools due to WWII, so UVA would play against air bases and naval training centers.  I can only imagine what losing to “N.C. Pre-Flight School” and “Camp Lee” did to Virginia's RPI in 1943.)

The teams in the 1920s played games with scores only in the 20’s, so this year’s Virginia team is not going to break any all-time records, but they still have a chance to finish as the best Wahoo defense in almost 70 years.

UVa Men's Basketball Keeps Rolling On

UVa’s basketball team is having another historic season. The Hoos are undefeated so far at 17-0 and are ranked #2 in the country. They are off to their best start in 34 years and have not been ranked this high since 1983. In fact, since January 18th of last year, Virginia has gone 35-2, best in the nation.

The Cavaliers have achieved this record due to their dominant defense, which is #1 in the country in points allowed per game and #2 in field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the offense has been efficient as well, ranked #24 in FG% and #4 in KenPom offense efficiency ratings.

Last season, UVa won the ACC regular season and tournament titles for the first time ever, and will have a tough time repeating this year. Next week the Wahoos start a three game stretch against #5 Duke, at #15 North Carolina, and #10 Louisville.

In fact, the Duke game is such a big match-up that ESPN’s traveling pregame show, “College Gameday,” will be in Charlottesville for the first time ever for that game.

Meanwhile, Kentucky is the other undefeated team in the country, and is ranked #1, garnering lots of media attention.  The Wildcats are a team made up of mostly All-American freshman looking to go to the NBA after their one year, while UVa is comprised of mostly upperclassmen with more aspirations towards graduation than the pros. It would make for an interesting title game if these two top teams make it that far.

Let’s Go Hoos!

NCAA March Madness Time!

Tomorrow is one of the best sports days of the year as the NCAA men’s basketball tournament begins. Usually I just focus on upsets, good games, picking the best bracket, etc. However, this year this year there is an extra incentive, as UVa capped off their ACC regular season championship with an ACC tournament title, earning a #1 seed in the East region. It was the first ACC regular season championship outright and #1 seed for the Cavs in over 30 years, and the first Tournament title since 1976. Now, do I follow my heart and pick the Hoo’s to win it all or do I listen to the experts and try to be more accurate with my bracket predictions?

First let’s take look at the trends from the past 28 seasons by round.

First round:

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 75% with #12 seeds Mississippi, California, and Oregon pulling off the upsets) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Kansas State went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 14% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year #3 New Mexico was upset though)

Second round:

• Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (#1 Gonzaga was upset by eventual Final Four team Wichita St, who happen to be undefeated this year)
• Meanwhile 36% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Georgetown was upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 12% of the time has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (which actually did happen once last year)

Sweet 16:

• 70% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (was 25% last year with only champion Louisville advancing) 
• On the other side of the region, 72% are either #2 or #3 seeds (100% last year)

Elite Eight:

• Only one time in 33 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (which was no exception last year) 
• 41% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (no #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 18 (#1, #4, #4, #9) was way above average.)

If those are the yearly trends, then who did the experts pick this year? Here is a breakdown of 22 “expert” brackets.

Championship:

• 32% of the experts chose #1 seed Florida to win the entire thing (compared to 75% for eventual champ Louisville last year)
• UVa was the only #1 seed not picked of the six different teams
• 27% picked #4 Michigan State with 8 losses while only 9% picked undefeated #1 Wichita State

Runner Up:

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 31% #4 Louisville was the highest
• 22% have Florida over Louisville

Final Four:

• 86% picked #4 Michigan State to reach the Final Four, while only 1 expert picked UVa
• Only 27% picked #1 Wichita State, while 55% picked #4 Louisville, out of the Midwest Region
• #1 Florida 68%, #2 Kansas 32% in what looks an entertaining South regional Final
• Sorry Wildcats fans, Villanova was the only #2 seed not picked
• No teams outside of the top #4 seeds were picked, how boring

Elite Eight:

• 100% of brackets picked Florida in the Elite Eight
• 90% have #4 MSU facing #3 Iowa State, which is absurd considering only 16% of #4 seeds and 26% of #3 seeds even make the Elite Eight
• #4 Louisville and #1 Wichita State are split 60/40
• Only 9% picked UVa, the lowest #1 seed, and 0% for #2 seed Villanova

Sweet Sixteen:

• 23% have Kentucky beating #1 Wichita State, but only one bracket had #4 MSU or #3 Iowa State losing
• All 20 experts picked #4 Louisville to make the Sweet 16, stunning considering half the #4 seeds do not make it there
• #2 Kansas 55% vs. #7 New Mexico 45% looks like a great game
• Same with #2 Villanova 55% vs. #7 UConn 40%

Conclusions

• Since 30% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, UVa or Wichita St. are the choices to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Villanova and Kansas have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so experts pick against Creighton as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Since only one time out of 34 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, experts think UVa and Wichita St. look the most vulnerable. 

After looking at the trends and expert picks I am even more inclined to pick UVa to win it all. If the entire pool picks MSU, Louisville, etc, I gain an advantage by picking UVa if they win, while not gaining anything by picking against Virginia.  The consensus of the expert picks is staggering though. Using the Ken Pomeroy rankings (the en vogue college basketball sabermetrics rankings), UVa is the #4th best team in the country while MSU is #10. Granted Michigan State is now fully healthy and coming off a BIG 10 tournament title and they may be underseeded as a #4. However, they have gone 8-7 in their past 15 games, while UVa has only one loss in a meaningful game since New Year’s.  Historic trends have #1 seeds advancing 70% of the time in this matchup, while only 16% of #4 seeds, but the 22 experts picked 9% #1 seed/91% #4 seed.

Meanwhile on the other side of the region, which team do you think got 95% of the picks to make the elite eight? The #7 ranked team or the #22, #25, or #26 ranked teams? Iowa State, the #22 ranked team, was predicted to win in 21 of the 22 brackets, while #7 Villanova got zero.

Either the experts or on to something that I do not know about, or maybe I found out a key to who I am picking this week.  That’s why they play the games.

UVa’s Men’s Basketball’s Historic Season Reaches New Heights This Weekend Against Syracuse

Last night, #12 UVa’s men’s basketball team cruised to their 12th straight victory and 15th in the last 16 games. The Cavaliers now have a 15-1 ACC record and are in first place by 1.5 games over #4 Syracuse, which comes into Charlottesville on Saturday. The Wahoo’s can extend their magical season by claiming their 2nd outright ACC title ever with a win. Here are some stats on how historic this season has been for Virginia:

• The last time they won an ACC title outright was in 1981, over 30 years ago
• It’s the first time the program has won 12 straight ACC games since 1981-82
• UVa also improved to 19 games above .500 for the first time since 1982-83
• They won a program-record 11th ACC game by double figures.
• The Hoos have won 17 straight home ACC games, a new school record
• They have led by 19 or more in 12 of 16 ACC games

How has a team that did not make the NCAA tournament last year and was not ranked until three weeks ago able to run rampant over the toughest conference in the country? It all starts with the defense:

• The Cavaliers have the #1 defense in the country in points per game and #8 in defensive FG%
• They have held 16 straight teams below their season average for points
• The offense is balanced as well, since seven different players have led the team in scoring

The game will be nationally televised on ESPN with Dickie V doing the commentary.  It has been sold out for months with the cheapest nosebleed ticket currently going for $268 on Stubhub.  ESPN already has video breaking down the match-up: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=10518180

The basketball game is not the only sports action in Charlottesville on Saturday though. After the game, across the street, the #4 men’s lacrosse team hosts the #6 team in the country. What rival successful lacrosse team warrants the night time matchup? You guessed it, Syracuse. Earlier in the day, UVa’s top #5 ranked baseball, tennis, and women's lacrosse teams are in action as well.  Hopefully the Hoo’s can pull out the upset to continue their historic season and confirm my prophetic tweet from last March:

Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship

• 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked

Runner Up

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% Miami highest
• 30% have Louisville beating Miami

Final Four

• 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
• The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
• #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
• Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
• Duke and MSU are split 50/50
• Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
• Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
• Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette

Sweet Sixteen

• #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
• All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
• Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
• #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
• #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
• Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

Picking your NCAA Tourny Bracket

Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round: 

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

 In the second round: 

• Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset 
• Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

 Sweet 16 round: 

• 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering) 
• On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

 Elite Eight round: 

• Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year) 
• 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 9 (#1, #2, #2, #4) was about average).

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. 

Experts and Trends on NCAA Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked. Whether to follow the pack or be unique with your own picks is up to you.

Championship

• 70% of the experts chose Kentucky to win the entire thing

Runner Up

• 8 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% UNC highest
• 30% have Kentucky over UNC

Final Four

• 90% picked Kentucky to reach the Final Four
• Only 20% picked #1 MSU, while 50% picked #2 Missouri out of the West Region
• #2 Kansas 50%, #1 UNC 45% from Midwest region
• 0% Georgetown, only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 30% FSU, highest #3 seed, and will increase with Syracuse suspension, #2 OSU only 20%

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets had Kentucky in the Elite Eight
• 60% #3 Baylor, only 25% #2 Duke
• Only 60% MSU, lowest #1 seed
• Kansas 80%, highest #2 seed
• FSU 55%, OSU 45%, no others picked to meet there

Sweet Sixteen

• 3 #1 seeds got 95% or higher, except MSU, which 20% picked to be upset by #8 Memphis
• 3 #2 seeds got 85% or higher, except Duke, which 25% picked #10 Xavier or #7 ND
• FSU and Baylor strongest #3 seeds with 90% and 85%
• Georgetown and Marquette weakest #3 at only 55% and 65%
• #6 Murray State 35% over #3 Marquette
• 25% #11 NC State or 20% #6 San Diego over Georgetown
• #5 Vanderbilt 55%, #4 Wisconsin 45%, essentially a toss up
• Good luck guessing between #5 Wichita St 50%, #4 Indiana 30%, #12 VCU 20%
• Or these #4 Louisville 40%, #5 New Mexico 30%, #12 Long Beach 25%

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, MSU is a good choice to falter.
• Since 37% of #2 seeds are upset in the 2^nd round, Duke is the trendy pick to go down.
• Only 13% of the time does a region go #1, #2, #3, #4, so pick against Georgetown as a #3 seed to continue this trend.
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 over a #4 which is a toss-up, or a #12 like Long Beach or VCU.
• Since only 1 one time out of 31 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, MSU and Syracuse look like most vulnerable.

Picking your Final Four Bracket

For the last two years I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 26 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round:

· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 34% of the time (last year it was 25% with #12 Richmond beating #5 Vanderbilt)

· 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Louisville was upset last year)

· Meanwhile only 15% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

In the second round:

· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)

· Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (Has happened two years in a row though)

· Meanwhile 37% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#10 Florida State upset #2 Notre Dame last year)

· Only or 13% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:

· 71% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was only 25% last year when only #1 Kansas survived)

· On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

Elite Eight round:

· Only one time in 31 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)

· 42% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (No #1 seeds made it last year)

· #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (No #2 seeds made it last year as well)

· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10.5. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 26 (#3, #4, #8, #11) was more than double the average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. ESPN must have read this post earlier, since they have a version as well.

Hoo’s Battling Duke for 1st Place?

Don’t look now, but UVa men’s basketball team is 14-1 and ranked #16 in the country. The Cavaliers are the only one loss team left in in the ACC, putting them in first place as conference play starts up. This is the highest the team has been ranked since 2000, when they were #8 in the country. In the latest Bracketology forecast, ESPN predicts Virginia will be a 5 seed in the tournament which would be the team’s best seeding since they last made the tournament as a 4 seed in 2007.

UVa is led by fifth year senior Mike Scott, who is the leading scorer and has had five double doubles so far. He has already earned three ACC player of the week awards this season, only the fifth Cavalier to do so. The team also relies on one of the best defenses in the country, which is 2^nd out of 338 in scoring at 50.5 points a game, and 20^th in opponents’ field goal %. The fans at John Paul Jones Arena have embraced the defensive mindset by ramping up the decimal level whenever the opponents’ shot clock goes below 10 seconds.

However, the team’s biggest test to date is Thursday as they travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on #6 Duke. ESPN has this matchup as the upset pick of the week. Unfortunately, the Wahoos have not beaten the Blue Devils since 2007 and have not won on Coach K court since 1995, when the members of the Hoo’s roster were still learning how to walk let alone dribble a basketball. Yikes!

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips

When looking at the last eight NCAA tournaments mathematically, there are some striking trends.

In the first round:

#12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44%

22% of #4 seeds go down

Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game

In the second round:

More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10)

Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset

Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner

Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4

Sweet 16 round:

78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight

On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds

Elite Eight round:

Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four

44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four

#2 seeds make it 25% of the time

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average.

Now, which teams are going to be in those spots/upsets? Good luck!