Are The Nationals World Series Favorites?

For the second time in three years the Washington Nationals are in the playoffs! Two seasons ago, Washington was a team happy to be there and lost in the first round in heart breaking fashion. Now they are more experienced and are one of the favorites to win the World Series. Here are some reasons why the Nationals could bring DC its first baseball title in 90 years.

• They lead the majors in team ERA, starting pitcher ERA, and are second in bullpen ERA
• They set an all-time record for strikeout to walk ratio at 3.66-1
• They are in the top four in the NL in runs scored, home runs and on base percentage
• They are coming into the playoffs peaking at the right time, having won 15 of 20 and 21 of 30, both tops in the MLB, and ended the season on their first ever no-hitter
• Drew Storen reclaimed his closer role in early September and converted 10 consecutive save opportunities and hasn’t given up an earned run in 23 appearances
• Even the experts are picking the Nat’s to win it all. (11 of 15 on ESPN and 2 of 5 on Fox)

What’s preventing the Nationals from cruising all the way to a title? Oh yea, there are other teams in the playoffs.

• The Nats are only 17-20 against the teams that made the playoffs, a .459 winning percentage which is second to worst of the 10 teams
• They have been outscored 159-131 against playoff teams, a -28 margin that is third worst

So while Washington has put up great stats and look like the favorite on paper, I am a little hesitant to crown them champs already.

Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady is Upon Us

This Sunday, the biggest individual rivalry in professional sports repeats itself when Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The two hall of fame bound quarterbacks face off for the 15th time and fourth time in the playoffs.  In case you are not fed up with the non-stop coverage on ESPN, here are some different takes on the rivalry:

Here is a Sporcle quiz comparing their stats:

http://www.sporcle.com/games/klofton798/manning-vs-brady-stats

Here are some fun facts on the matchup:

• 6 of the last 7 Manning-Brady meetings have been decided by 7 points or less
• 7 of the last 12 Super Bowls have included either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
• The last time the Patriots played a road playoff game? The 2006 AFC Championship Game against the Colts
• Peyton Manning & Tom Brady's combined age of 74.3 is the oldest ever between opposing starting QBs in a Conference Championship Game
• Manning and Brady will be the 1st QBs to meet in playoff games 10 seasons apart in the Super Bowl era (2003 & 2013 AFC Championship games).

Both Manning and Brady have appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated over a dozen times:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Meanwhile, as pitchmen, they are completely different as this article details. Brady is married to a supermodel wife and endorses Ugg boots and Movado watches, while Manning and his “aww shucks” “down to earth” personality pitches Papa John’s and Mastercard.

I know what I’ll be watching at 3pm on Sunday… with my Papa John’s pizza.

2-0 NFL Teams vs. 0-2 Teams

After two weeks of the NFL season, there are eight teams that are 2-0 and eight teams that are 0-2.  I have seen the statistic several times today stating that 63% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs, while only 12% of 0-2 teams do. Now that 12% of the season is already done, which of the 2-0 teams should start printing out playoff tickets and which of the 0-2 teams should start working on their draft board?

First take a look at the eight teams that are off to a fast start, in multiple categories:

Since statistically only 63%, or 5 of these 8 will make the playoffs, which ones will advance? What is the best indicator of team success? The easiest trend is if the team made the playoffs last year, then they should make it again. However, half the teams on this list did not make it last year. Maybe last year was a fluke and the five year records will be a better predictor. Well Teams D and B have great percentages, while C and H have had several losing seasons recently. If “defense wins championships”, then certainly Teams C and H are in since they are among the tops in defensive yards and points allowed. The NFL is an offensive league now though, so the top offenses of Teams F and G are strong bets to make the playoffs. Game by game, winning the turnover battle is key, therefore Team C and H are starting the season off well, while Team A, B, and F need some work to do. After looking at these metrics overall, Teams C and G are playoff bound, while Teams A, B, and E will be the 3 in the 37% that do not make it.

Now for the teams on the other end of the spectrum, which started off 0-2:









Looking at the same metrics as before, Teams I and K made the playoffs last year and have above average scoring offenses, so maybe they can turn their seasons around. Team L and M are even in the turnover battle, and have above average scoring defenses. Teams J and O have great records in the past five years, so maybe they just got off to a rough start this season. Looking at the rankings overall, it looks like Team L has the best chance of being the one team to make the playoffs after a 0-2 start.

Here is the team key:



It’s not surprising that Seattle and Denver are the two best, but Chicago and New Orleans need more than history and fan base to get in. There is no guarantee Pittsburgh, NY Giants, or Washington are turning it around, while Tampa Bay’s defense and turnover margin can give their fans some hope.

Is Joe Flacco an Elite Quarterback?

Going into his first Super Bowl, Joe Flacco is getting questioned about whether or not he is an elite quarterback, among the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  This is especially topical since he outplayed those two quarterbacks on the road to earn this Super Bowl berth.  Eli Manning fielded similar questions last year and went on to upset Brady in the Super Bowl.

What makes a quarterback elite? Is it team wins? Winning percentage? Perhaps you believe that quarterbacks get too much blame and praise for winning a 52 player team game, therefore they should be judged by completion percentage or touchdown to interception ratio instead. Do elite quarterbacks need to be clutch in the fourth quarter and win the big game, and not just stat hogs in the blowouts?

Here is a breakdown for those stats for the nine quarterbacks who have started at least five playoff games since Flacco joined the league in 2008:

QB	Wins	Win %	Comp %	TV/INT Ratio	SB	GW D
A	3	43%	62%	1.6	0	1
B	4	67%	68%	8.5	1	2
C	4	80%	63%	3	1	2
D	8	67%	54%	2	0	2
E	2	33%	66%	2.8	0	0
F	5	63%	66%	3.6	1	0
G	5	71%	59%	1.3	1	2
H	4	67%	61%	3	0	2
I	1	20%	66%	1.3	0	1

Which quarterback would you want?

• D has the most wins
• C had the highest winning percentage
• B has the best completion %, TD/INT ratio, has won a ring, and has two game winning drives
• F is second in comp. %, wins, td/int ratio, and has a ring
• G is second in wins, win %, has a ring, and two game winning drives

Which one of these QB’s would you avoid?

• E has only won two playoff games with no Super Bowls or clutch drives
• A has a sub-500 record and no Super Bowls either

Hard to judge the elite quarterbacks without the names and history, huh? Hate to break it to you, but the ones who look like they are not elite (E and A) are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The winning-est QB’s (D and C) are Flacco and Eli Manning.  The QB’s with good stats and a ring (B, F, and G) are Brees, Rodgers, and Big Ben. The remaining QB’s are Matt Ryan and surprisingly Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez.

Next time elite quarterbacks are mentioned, be sure to look at the full picture and not just the glamour name.

Note: I am fully aware that if I start at 2007 instead of 2008, it includes two more wins for Brady and four more for Eli, but overall the stats do not change that much and defeats the purpose of the Flacco debate. Game winning drives are a stat determined by profootballreference.com.

DC Sports Team Falters in the Playoffs Again

After winning the division for the first time in over a decade, Washington’s playoff run ended in the first round. After taking an early lead on an experienced playoff tested opponent, DC fell apart defending their home field. Washington got to this point riding a rookie of the year candidate who was barely on the depth chart to start the season. Their prized recent free agent even contributed down the stretch despite missing the middle of the season. Even the big trade which involved mortgaging future prospects for one player worked out, since he was an All-Star this season. DC was all a buzz, with increased attendance, record TV ratings and even a popular Twitter hashtag. Now their former champion coach must field questions during the off-season second guessing his handling of their star player’s injury down the stretch and what might have been in the playoffs. 

Wait, I was talking about the Nats.

Either way, despite the rough playoff exits for the Redskins and Nationals, the future is bright for both franchises.

 

UVA Spring Sport Champions

Over the Memorial Day weekend, two of Virginia’s spring sports teams won titles. In Baltimore, the Cavalier men’s lacrosse team won their fifth NCAA title, while in Durham; the baseball team won its third ACC tournament crown.

In the first game of the lacrosse final four, UVa faced off against an upstart Denver squad making its first appearance on the big stage, compared to the Wahoo’s 21^st. Their inexperience showed as the Cavs jumped to a 5-2 first quarter lead and were up 13-3 at one point. After dispatching the Pioneers with a final score of 14-8, Virginia advanced to their ninth final, this time against rival Maryland.

On a sweltering hot Memorial Day, the Terrapin defense cooled off the Hoos, shutting them out in the first quarter. Despite playing in Maryland’s backyard at Ravens Stadium, the Cavaliers responded to take a 5-3 halftime lead. After the Terps rallied to tie the game at six in the fourth quarter, Virginia used their new ball control precision offense to connect on three straight goals, which sent the black and red clad fans heading for the exits with two minutes left. The nine goals scored by the Cavs were the second fewest on the year, the fewest also being against Maryland in an earlier loss.

This was the fifth title for the program, third since my freshman year in 2003, which is an absurdly high number when compared to the rest of the teams in my 100% theory. During that same span, only one of the other eleven teams have won a title (1% Colts in ‘06), and one other even made a title game (Cleveland Cavs in ’07). It gets even worse when you expand the time frame, since five of the teams have never won a title (UVa football and basketball, Cleveland Cavs, Capitals, and Nationals) and the Indians and Browns have not won in almost five decades. Maybe I should only have lacrosse jerseys and posters. This is certainly a good start.

Not to be forgotten, the UVa baseball team won their second ACC title game in three years over the weekend as well. Virginia won all four of their games in the tournament including victories over three top-20 schools. They will hope to capitalize on this momentum as they did two years ago when they won the tournament and advanced to their only College World Series. It helps that they will be the #1 overall seed and have this new shirt to wear around.

Almost a Title for UVA Spring Sports

This past week was up and down for the dominant Virginia spring sports teams. One pulled off an upset, another won and lost, while one just plain lost.

UVa’s #1 men’s tennis team headed into the NCAA Tournament this past weekend undefeated and went into their first ever title game unblemished. After cruising over Illinois and two close matches against Stanford and Ohio State, Virginia faced #2 USC in the title game. The Trojans were the two-time defending champs and knocked the Cavaliers out of the tournament last year. After going down 3-0 early, the Hoos rallied to tie the match 3-3, only to fall in the last points. Maybe UVA’s coaches need to start secretly taping USC’s practices or go Tonya Harding on their best player because their only two losses in the past 70 matches were to the Trojans.

Meanwhile on Long Island, Virginia’s men’s lacrosse team faced #2 Cornell in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. The Big Red came into the matchup as one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 11 in a row. Even though UVa was the last team to beat Cornell, the Wahoo’s are a different team now with the suspensions of two of their best players, and looked like it going down 4-1 early. Luckily the Cavs rallied in the 2^nd quarter with a stunning 9 unanswered goals to essentially seal the win with the 10-4 halftime lead. Not only did UVa make its fourth straight final four with the win, but coach Dom Starsia broke the record for most all-time D1 wins. Virginia faces an up and coming Denver squad this Saturday on ESPN, which has already beaten Duke and Hopkins this year, and are led by 6-time title winning coach Bill Tierney. If Virginia advances, they would face one of two arch rivals, Duke or Maryland on Memorial Day on ESPN.

Luckily flying under the radar, the #1 Hoos baseball team got swept over the weekend to North Carolina. Not only was it the first time they lost a series this season, but the Cavaliers had not been swept in three years. The ACC Tournament starts this week which will be a nice tune up for the NCAA Tournament which starts in June. Fortunately, the Cavs anemic offense against UNC (3 runs) woke up with a 13-1 mercy rule pounding of Wake Forest in the first game on Wednesday.

Let’s hope the lacrosse and baseball teams can finish their seasons on top, unlike the tennis team which almost won a title. Wait, does UVA have a horseshoes and hand grenades team?

Another Great Weekend for UVA Spring Sports

So far, so good for Virginia spring sports teams. This past weekend, UVA’s men’s tennis and men’s lacrosse teams were victorious in their opening rounds of the NCAA playoffs, while the baseball team continued their dominant season.

The #1 men’s tennis team started the NCAA tournament at home last weekend against Sacred Heart and Wake Forest. The Wahoos continued their perfect season by dispatching the Demon Deacons and Pioneers by a combined 8-1. Virginia travels to Stanford for the final four rounds, played in a six day span, beginning with Illinois on Thursday. They have won 67 of their past 68 matches and have made this sweet 16 round for the eighth consecutive year without even making the finals once. Let’s hope the eighth time’s a charm.

A couple days later at Klockner Stadium, UVA’s men’s lacrosse team prevailed in overtime against an underrated Bucknell team 13-12 in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Bison came in with the better record and ranking but revealed their playoff inexperience by not controlling the ball and killing the clock when they were ahead in the final minutes. Despite their struggles this season, the Cavs advanced to the elite eight for the sixth time in seven seasons and next weekend will be up against #2 Cornell.

Meanwhile a hundred yards away, Virginia’s #1 baseball team completed a series victory over #16 Miami. 45-6 UVa has won all ten of their series’ this year with only #13 UNC left until the ACC and NCAA tournaments begin in a couple weeks.

Hopefully these teams can keep up their winning ways this weekend since there is no Caps or Cleveland Cavs to follow in the playoffs anymore this year.

Should the Caps Should Fire Boudreau?

Once again, the Capitals choked in the playoffs, being swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning. After converting 17% of their power plays in the regular season, DC scored on only 2 of their 18 opportunities and 10% for the entire playoffs. Likewise after killing off all but 14.4% of penalties during the regular season, for 2^nd place, the Caps allowed 3 power play goals in 4 games to Tampa. Of course, Washington ran into a hot goalie in Roloson who leads the league in the post season in goals against average and save percentage. Backstrom (2 points in playoffs) and Semin (2 in series) disappeared after averaging almost a point a game in the regular season. What is the aftermath for Boudreau and the Caps after this collapse?

Is the bbq faced, sailor mouthed coach fully to blame for the collapse? While only going 17-20 in the playoffs and losing four of six playoffs series are pretty damning, he has the highest winning percentage of all active coaches. While it looked like the players gave up in the third period of game three and missed opportunities, it is the coach’s responsibility to get the players up for any opponent. During the eight game losing streak back in December, chronicled by HBO’s 24/7, it looked like Boudreau was already losing his players with his absurd profanity laden rants. Maybe the players are to blame as well.

Which players are free agents, need to be traded, and are too soft to win in the playoffs? Arnott, Sturm, Knuble, Laich, Bradley, Gordon, and Hannan are unrestricted free agents and only Laich and Knuble would be worthy to re-sign if they can improve on going to the net. Speaking of soft, figure skater Semin has been re-signed year to year reflecting the management’s lack of faith in his disappearing act in the playoffs and dumb penalties. Meanwhile Green might have improved his defense this year, but his offensive skills too often cause liabilities in the defensive zone. Maybe trading Semin and Green are options for a more defensive minded blue liner and tougher forward since each have only one year left on their contracts.

If firing Boudreau is the option, then who is going to take his place? While the Caps can call up Mark French, who won the Calder Cup for the Hershey Bears last year, they might want to avoid bringing up a minor league coach like Boudreau again. Maybe this team needs a disciplinarian that can handle the superstars’ egos and tendencies to revert back to bad habits when pressed in the playoffs. All I know is that I am growing pretty tired of watching 17 days worth of regular season games the past two seasons only for it to be over in a mere 40 hours.