NFL Rookie Quarterback Party!

This week, Russell Wilson, the rookie quarterback for Seattle, was named the Week 1 starter for the Seahawks. He joins Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden as rookie signal callers starting the season opener. That means an astounding 16% of NFL teams are going into the season with their most important position never having taken a NFL snap.

Since the historic Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf draft back in 1998, there have only been 13 rookie quarterbacks to start the season opener, compared to five just this year alone. None of those previous 14 seasons had more than two rookies starting in Week 1. During this time frame, 39 QB’s were taken in the first round and only 11 started the opener, or 28%, compared to five of the first six QB’s drafted this year. Meanwhile some star quarterbacks held the clipboard their entire rookie seasons, like Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

How did these brave young passers fare? Well, not surprisingly, they struggled. Of the 13 rookies who started the openers, only 5 or 38% of them had winning records for the season; 38% threw over 3000 yards, 23% threw more TD’s than INT’s, and only 15% had more than 20 TD’s. Unfortunately resting the prized QB does not seem to help either. Of the 37 rookies who started at least five games, only 37% had more TD’s than INT’s, 24% had winning records, 18% threw over 3000 yards, and only 10% had more than 20 TD’s.

Does this mean teams should shelter their face of the franchise to the film room all season instead? Not necessarily.  Some rookies clearly struggled and never recovered, like Leaf (3-7, 2 TD, 15 INT), Akili Smith (1-5, 2 TD, 6 INT), Jimmy Clausen (1-11, 3 TD, 9 INT) and David Carr (4-12, 9 TD, 15 INT). Meanwhile some were able to grow from their difficult rookie seasons like Eli Manning (1-6, 6 TD, 9 INT), Michael Vick (1-4, 2 TD, 3 INT) and Matt Stafford (2-8, 13 TD, 20 INT). Not all rookies stumbled out of the gate though as evidenced by Matt Ryan (11-6, 18 TD, 13 INT), Big Ben (14-2, 20 TD, 16 INT) and Joe Flacco (13-6, 15 TD, 15 INT).  But beware the early successes as well since some rookies careers did not take off after enjoying a solid rookie season like Jason Campbell (10 TD, 6 INT), Shaun King (5-2, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Vince Young (8-6).

Even though rookie quarterbacks are such a mixed bag, five teams are resting their future on them due to the ever shifting passing oriented dominance of the NFL.  Of the nine signal callers drafted in the past two seasons that started, only two of them did not throw more TDs than INTs and those two (McCoy and Clausen) have already had two 1^st round draft picks take their place. Meanwhile last year, Andy Dalton (9-7, 20 TD, 13 INT) lead his team to the playoffs and Cam Newton (4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 14 rushing TDs) broke all kinds of records.

With opening weekend only a week away, we will soon find out whether these rookie quarterbacks will make their coaches and GM’s geniuses or unemployed.  

National's Dream Season Continues

After Washington went up two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, er, Giants last night, I felt it was time to take a look at how well this first place team is doing in the dog days of summer. Not only does Washington have the best record in the league and a 5 game lead in their division, but they are now atop ESPN’s power rankings for the first time.

All season the team has been carried by their pitching, and here are some of their stats: 

• #1 in team ERA in the Majors, #1 in opponent batting average, #1 in WHIP, #3 in strikeouts
• Four of DC’s five starters are in the top #14 in ERA in the NL, all five in the top #22
• Four in the top #12 in WHIP
• All five in the top #15 in opponent batting average

It’s not all pitching either. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are:

• #1 in runs, hits, and total bases in the Majors
• #2 in RBI
• #4 in batting average

But of course all the naysayers will look to the impending resting of Stephen Strasburg as the downfall of this team that will end their great season. However, keep in mind, starters only pitch every five games and the first round of the playoffs are best out of five when you only need three pitchers anyways. Look at the stats of the National's rotation below. 

• A) 15-6, 3.29 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, .210 Opponents Batting Average
• B) 9-6,   2.35 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, .238   
• C) 6-5,   3.18 ERA, 74 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, .236
• D) 13-5, 2.90 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, .226
• E) 7-7,   3.74 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.21 WHIP, .239

Which one is the one getting benched that will ruin our season? If you were in a playoff hunt against the Nat’s, which one would you want to be shut down?  The fact that Washington’s rotation is having such a great season and is that deep lets me believe that this remarkable season will continue deep into the fall.

In Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks are now a Dime a Dozen

Now that the preseason of the NFL has begun, it is a perfect time to start researching for your Fantasy Football drafts at the end of the month.  For the first time in years, I am also in a seasonal draft format in addition to the keeper/dynasty league. Seasonal drafts require totally different strategies and research.  

The key to these leagues is when to draft each position. Traditionally, the first two rounds are reserved for running backs with a couple star quarterbacks and wide receivers sprinkled in. Then after locking up your top two RBs, you would move on to QB and WR before drafting kickers and defenses in the later rounds. However, the recent trends of RBs by committee and the pass happy NFL could force a change in this routine. In fact, four of the top six passing yard seasons in NFL history were last season. Meanwhile, only two RBs carried more than 300 times for over 1300 yards last season, compared to ten times just five seasons ago.  Does this mean QBs are more valuable and therefore should be drafted earlier while RBs can slide to later rounds? Not necessarily.

Most leagues award six or four points to TDs thrown by a QB, compared to six for a regular TD by a RB or WR. Obviously QBs are going to be more heavily weighted since the top QBs score 40+ TDs a year while the top RBs/WRs get 15 TDs.  That also means that average QBs outscore the top position players as well. Of the top 25 scorers last year, 19 were quarterbacks.  Alex Smith (238 points) and Andy Dalton (248) scored roughly the same amount as top RBs LeSean McCoy (266) and Arian Foster (239). Even though only 12 QBs will be starting in FFL week to week, the lowest ranked one will still roughly throw 4,000 yards and 20 TDs. This means that QBs are less valuable than ever before.

The current draft rankings reflect this devaluing of the QB position.  Only four of the top 21 players are QBs, and ten of the top 71. That means owners are still drafting their starting QB in rounds 6-8 with players like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Matt Schaub. Meanwhile the top 24 RBs and WRs, or two each per team, are gone by round 6. Since the record books are flying out the window, owners know QBs can be drafted with a high value later on.

If you project the scoring, you can see how scarce RBs and other positions are compared to QBs. The average projected point totals by position in round 6 mentioned above are 340 QB, 148 RB and 135 WR. There is a 45% drop off in points between the RBs and WRs in the 1^st round to the 7^th round compared to just a 30% drop for QBs. Meanwhile the difference between the top kicker and the 15^th kicker and the top defense and 10^th defense is only 20 points, hence why those two positions are usually drafted dead last. Therefore you still need to grab a top RB early since the only ones left after the top 24 are the second fiddles in the committee (Jonathon Stewart, Peyton Hillis, CJ Spiller, Michael Bush, etc).

Despite all the gaudy record-breaking numbers last year, in fantasy football, the QB is still not the glamour position, since you can still make the title game with Colt McCoy or Rex Grossman as your QB as was the case in our league last year.