Is Joe Flacco an Elite Quarterback?

Going into his first Super Bowl, Joe Flacco is getting questioned about whether or not he is an elite quarterback, among the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  This is especially topical since he outplayed those two quarterbacks on the road to earn this Super Bowl berth.  Eli Manning fielded similar questions last year and went on to upset Brady in the Super Bowl.

What makes a quarterback elite? Is it team wins? Winning percentage? Perhaps you believe that quarterbacks get too much blame and praise for winning a 52 player team game, therefore they should be judged by completion percentage or touchdown to interception ratio instead. Do elite quarterbacks need to be clutch in the fourth quarter and win the big game, and not just stat hogs in the blowouts?

Here is a breakdown for those stats for the nine quarterbacks who have started at least five playoff games since Flacco joined the league in 2008:

QB	Wins	Win %	Comp %	TV/INT Ratio	SB	GW D
A	3	43%	62%	1.6	0	1
B	4	67%	68%	8.5	1	2
C	4	80%	63%	3	1	2
D	8	67%	54%	2	0	2
E	2	33%	66%	2.8	0	0
F	5	63%	66%	3.6	1	0
G	5	71%	59%	1.3	1	2
H	4	67%	61%	3	0	2
I	1	20%	66%	1.3	0	1

Which quarterback would you want?

• D has the most wins
• C had the highest winning percentage
• B has the best completion %, TD/INT ratio, has won a ring, and has two game winning drives
• F is second in comp. %, wins, td/int ratio, and has a ring
• G is second in wins, win %, has a ring, and two game winning drives

Which one of these QB’s would you avoid?

• E has only won two playoff games with no Super Bowls or clutch drives
• A has a sub-500 record and no Super Bowls either

Hard to judge the elite quarterbacks without the names and history, huh? Hate to break it to you, but the ones who look like they are not elite (E and A) are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The winning-est QB’s (D and C) are Flacco and Eli Manning.  The QB’s with good stats and a ring (B, F, and G) are Brees, Rodgers, and Big Ben. The remaining QB’s are Matt Ryan and surprisingly Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez.

Next time elite quarterbacks are mentioned, be sure to look at the full picture and not just the glamour name.

Note: I am fully aware that if I start at 2007 instead of 2008, it includes two more wins for Brady and four more for Eli, but overall the stats do not change that much and defeats the purpose of the Flacco debate. Game winning drives are a stat determined by profootballreference.com.

DC Sports Team Falters in the Playoffs Again

After winning the division for the first time in over a decade, Washington’s playoff run ended in the first round. After taking an early lead on an experienced playoff tested opponent, DC fell apart defending their home field. Washington got to this point riding a rookie of the year candidate who was barely on the depth chart to start the season. Their prized recent free agent even contributed down the stretch despite missing the middle of the season. Even the big trade which involved mortgaging future prospects for one player worked out, since he was an All-Star this season. DC was all a buzz, with increased attendance, record TV ratings and even a popular Twitter hashtag. Now their former champion coach must field questions during the off-season second guessing his handling of their star player’s injury down the stretch and what might have been in the playoffs. 

Wait, I was talking about the Nats.

Either way, despite the rough playoff exits for the Redskins and Nationals, the future is bright for both franchises.

 

Redskins and Cowboys Renew the Greatest Rivalry in the NFL

This Sunday, on national primetime TV, the NFL regular season concludes with the biggest rivalry in the league with the NFC East title on the line. In a win or go home game, the 8-7 Dallas Cowboys face off against the 9-6 Washington Redskins, who are riding a six game win streak. The winner hosts a playoff game next week, while the loser watches the postseason from home.

DC has never hosted this rivalry game with as much on the line before. The cheapest tickets on Stub Hub start at $200 and I have been wearing my sweet t-shirt all week. Not only did Sports Illustrated vote it the biggest rivalry in the NFL, but the two clubs are the most valuable in the league and top five in the world. The Cowboys were “America’s Team” but after 15 years since their last Super Bowl, the country has grown tiresome of the hype, as witnessed by the map below of who viewers want to win the game:

Will rookie sensation RGIII lead the Redskins to their first division title since 1999 or will Tony Romo avenge his recent end of season struggles? Will two of the top five offenses in the league put on a shootout or will the nerves and the moment get to the teams in a low scoring grudge match? I cannot wait for Sunday Night!

Browns and Redskins Fighting for the Playoffs?

This week, my two favorite NFL teams square off for the first time in four years at a crucial time in the season. Being in separate conferences, the Redskins and Browns rarely face each other. The last time they played each other was back in October 2008 as Washington hosted Cleveland in a 14-11 win while I sat in the nosebleeds. This Sunday, they meet both still in playoff contention this late for the first time in several seasons.

The main story line this week will be the health of rookie of the year/MVP candidate RG3, but the Redskins and Browns also sport several other key rookies. Washington’s Alfred Morris has 1,228 rushing yards, kicker Kai Forbath is 14 of 14 on FGs so far, while backup QB Kirk Cousins won the game for Washington last week. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s rookie trio of Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson and Josh Morgan are the first rookie QB, RB, and WR combo to start for a team since 1970. Weeden has the most wins for a rookie in team history, Richardson has the most touchdowns for a rookie, even surpassing Jim Brown, while Gordon leads NFL rookies in yardage.

Here are some other quick facts for the match-up: 

• The Redskins have won four straight for the first time since 2008, including three in a row against NFC East rivals
• The Browns have won three straight for the first time in three seasons
• Washington is #5 and #7 in offensive yardage and points in the NFL
• Cleveland unfortunately lost three games by four points or less, but is #9 in defensive scoring
• The Browns and Redskins are +8 and +12 in turnover margin, both top ten in the league
• Washington’s six 30+ point games so far is their most in a season in 16 years
• Cleveland’s 23 point victory last week was their largest margin in nine seasons

Neither team has been in the playoffs in the past four seasons, but they both are still mathematically alive, and the winner of this game will be one step closer. 

RGIII for MVP

Could the Washington Redskins new superstar rookie actually be in the running for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award? Before you entirely scoff at the notion, think about what type of player should win the award? Is it the best player on the team with the best record, the one with the best stats, or the player who is the most valuable to their team’s success?

Clearly, the biggest critique of Robert Griffin being considered the league’s MVP at this point in the season would be the Redskins’ losing record. However, given DC’s defense and schedule so far, RGIII should not be penalized for their 3-4 record. Washington’s defense is currently ranked 29^th in yards allowed per game, 28^th in scoring, and dead last in passing yards. All four of their losses were decided within the last two minutes of the game and by seven points or less.  Their last three games were against teams with a combined record of 16-4.  There have been instances in the past where the MVP came from a losing team or a pitcher won a Cy Young award with a losing record due to a lack of run support, so the feat has some precedent.

Maybe in this fantasy football/videogame driven era of the NFL, all the MVP voters would care about would be numbers and statistics. Well, Griffin is third in the NFL in passer rating, ahead of the likes of Brady and Brees. He is first in yards per attempt and at 70.4% has the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in the league. His mere three interceptions are also tied for fewest in the league.  With RGIII, the attention is obviously focused on his running abilities as well. He is currently 12^th in the entire league in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. His 468 rushing yards are more than the Saints and Raiders have as a team and his six rushing TD’s are more than 24 entire teams.  In fact he is leading the NFL in yards per rush and yards per pass attempt, the first player in history to do so. (While Cam Newton and Michael Vick have also recently had outstanding dual threat seasons, Newton was 15^th in passer rating last year while Vick’s career year in 2010 was still only 10^th in the league in completion %.)

Those impressive stats mean even more to the team, illustrating his immense value. His 2,069 combined yards account for 73% of the Redskin’s total offense and he has had a hand in 13 of the 19 offensive touchdowns. DC’s offense is ranked sixth in scoring per game, fifth in overall yards, and first in rushing yards. The last time they finished the season ranked this high in these categories was 13 seasons ago. Amazingly, the Redskins have scored 30 points or more three times already this season, which is the same amount of times they achieved that in the past four entire seasons combined.

           Given all his numbers and value to the team, RG3 should not lose out in an early MVP race to similar rated quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brady and Brees, who already have hardware and only have a combined record of 16-16 themselves anyways. 

Miami of Ohio Football Adventure II

This past Labor Day weekend, my family and I had the opportunity to see my only cousin play D-1 football in person with 105,000 other fans at Ohio State Stadium in Columbus.  My cousin, Brad Bednar, is a four year starter on the Miami of Ohio Redhawks offensive line. He was even profiled in a Northern Ohio News-Herald article last week.   

Before the game, the famed Ohio State Marching Band took to the field for their famous Script Ohio:

Once the game started the Redhawks dominated the first quarter, racking up a 160-40 yard advantage over the heavily favored and nationally ranked Buckeyes. However, despite moving into the Ohio State redzone twice, Miami only came away with a field goal due to two key drops. Still, silencing the large home opener crowd by taking a lead was pretty sweet:

 

I do not need to go into the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th quarters, but seeing the star after the game was worth the wait:

NFL Rookie Quarterback Party!

This week, Russell Wilson, the rookie quarterback for Seattle, was named the Week 1 starter for the Seahawks. He joins Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden as rookie signal callers starting the season opener. That means an astounding 16% of NFL teams are going into the season with their most important position never having taken a NFL snap.

Since the historic Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf draft back in 1998, there have only been 13 rookie quarterbacks to start the season opener, compared to five just this year alone. None of those previous 14 seasons had more than two rookies starting in Week 1. During this time frame, 39 QB’s were taken in the first round and only 11 started the opener, or 28%, compared to five of the first six QB’s drafted this year. Meanwhile some star quarterbacks held the clipboard their entire rookie seasons, like Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

How did these brave young passers fare? Well, not surprisingly, they struggled. Of the 13 rookies who started the openers, only 5 or 38% of them had winning records for the season; 38% threw over 3000 yards, 23% threw more TD’s than INT’s, and only 15% had more than 20 TD’s. Unfortunately resting the prized QB does not seem to help either. Of the 37 rookies who started at least five games, only 37% had more TD’s than INT’s, 24% had winning records, 18% threw over 3000 yards, and only 10% had more than 20 TD’s.

Does this mean teams should shelter their face of the franchise to the film room all season instead? Not necessarily.  Some rookies clearly struggled and never recovered, like Leaf (3-7, 2 TD, 15 INT), Akili Smith (1-5, 2 TD, 6 INT), Jimmy Clausen (1-11, 3 TD, 9 INT) and David Carr (4-12, 9 TD, 15 INT). Meanwhile some were able to grow from their difficult rookie seasons like Eli Manning (1-6, 6 TD, 9 INT), Michael Vick (1-4, 2 TD, 3 INT) and Matt Stafford (2-8, 13 TD, 20 INT). Not all rookies stumbled out of the gate though as evidenced by Matt Ryan (11-6, 18 TD, 13 INT), Big Ben (14-2, 20 TD, 16 INT) and Joe Flacco (13-6, 15 TD, 15 INT).  But beware the early successes as well since some rookies careers did not take off after enjoying a solid rookie season like Jason Campbell (10 TD, 6 INT), Shaun King (5-2, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Vince Young (8-6).

Even though rookie quarterbacks are such a mixed bag, five teams are resting their future on them due to the ever shifting passing oriented dominance of the NFL.  Of the nine signal callers drafted in the past two seasons that started, only two of them did not throw more TDs than INTs and those two (McCoy and Clausen) have already had two 1^st round draft picks take their place. Meanwhile last year, Andy Dalton (9-7, 20 TD, 13 INT) lead his team to the playoffs and Cam Newton (4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 14 rushing TDs) broke all kinds of records.

With opening weekend only a week away, we will soon find out whether these rookie quarterbacks will make their coaches and GM’s geniuses or unemployed.  

National's Dream Season Continues

After Washington went up two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, er, Giants last night, I felt it was time to take a look at how well this first place team is doing in the dog days of summer. Not only does Washington have the best record in the league and a 5 game lead in their division, but they are now atop ESPN’s power rankings for the first time.

All season the team has been carried by their pitching, and here are some of their stats: 

• #1 in team ERA in the Majors, #1 in opponent batting average, #1 in WHIP, #3 in strikeouts
• Four of DC’s five starters are in the top #14 in ERA in the NL, all five in the top #22
• Four in the top #12 in WHIP
• All five in the top #15 in opponent batting average

It’s not all pitching either. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are:

• #1 in runs, hits, and total bases in the Majors
• #2 in RBI
• #4 in batting average

But of course all the naysayers will look to the impending resting of Stephen Strasburg as the downfall of this team that will end their great season. However, keep in mind, starters only pitch every five games and the first round of the playoffs are best out of five when you only need three pitchers anyways. Look at the stats of the National's rotation below. 

• A) 15-6, 3.29 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, .210 Opponents Batting Average
• B) 9-6,   2.35 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, .238   
• C) 6-5,   3.18 ERA, 74 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, .236
• D) 13-5, 2.90 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, .226
• E) 7-7,   3.74 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.21 WHIP, .239

Which one is the one getting benched that will ruin our season? If you were in a playoff hunt against the Nat’s, which one would you want to be shut down?  The fact that Washington’s rotation is having such a great season and is that deep lets me believe that this remarkable season will continue deep into the fall.

In Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks are now a Dime a Dozen

Now that the preseason of the NFL has begun, it is a perfect time to start researching for your Fantasy Football drafts at the end of the month.  For the first time in years, I am also in a seasonal draft format in addition to the keeper/dynasty league. Seasonal drafts require totally different strategies and research.  

The key to these leagues is when to draft each position. Traditionally, the first two rounds are reserved for running backs with a couple star quarterbacks and wide receivers sprinkled in. Then after locking up your top two RBs, you would move on to QB and WR before drafting kickers and defenses in the later rounds. However, the recent trends of RBs by committee and the pass happy NFL could force a change in this routine. In fact, four of the top six passing yard seasons in NFL history were last season. Meanwhile, only two RBs carried more than 300 times for over 1300 yards last season, compared to ten times just five seasons ago.  Does this mean QBs are more valuable and therefore should be drafted earlier while RBs can slide to later rounds? Not necessarily.

Most leagues award six or four points to TDs thrown by a QB, compared to six for a regular TD by a RB or WR. Obviously QBs are going to be more heavily weighted since the top QBs score 40+ TDs a year while the top RBs/WRs get 15 TDs.  That also means that average QBs outscore the top position players as well. Of the top 25 scorers last year, 19 were quarterbacks.  Alex Smith (238 points) and Andy Dalton (248) scored roughly the same amount as top RBs LeSean McCoy (266) and Arian Foster (239). Even though only 12 QBs will be starting in FFL week to week, the lowest ranked one will still roughly throw 4,000 yards and 20 TDs. This means that QBs are less valuable than ever before.

The current draft rankings reflect this devaluing of the QB position.  Only four of the top 21 players are QBs, and ten of the top 71. That means owners are still drafting their starting QB in rounds 6-8 with players like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Matt Schaub. Meanwhile the top 24 RBs and WRs, or two each per team, are gone by round 6. Since the record books are flying out the window, owners know QBs can be drafted with a high value later on.

If you project the scoring, you can see how scarce RBs and other positions are compared to QBs. The average projected point totals by position in round 6 mentioned above are 340 QB, 148 RB and 135 WR. There is a 45% drop off in points between the RBs and WRs in the 1^st round to the 7^th round compared to just a 30% drop for QBs. Meanwhile the difference between the top kicker and the 15^th kicker and the top defense and 10^th defense is only 20 points, hence why those two positions are usually drafted dead last. Therefore you still need to grab a top RB early since the only ones left after the top 24 are the second fiddles in the committee (Jonathon Stewart, Peyton Hillis, CJ Spiller, Michael Bush, etc).

Despite all the gaudy record-breaking numbers last year, in fantasy football, the QB is still not the glamour position, since you can still make the title game with Colt McCoy or Rex Grossman as your QB as was the case in our league last year. 

Hoo's Going to London

As the Olympics draw near at the end of the month, I found even more reasons to root for the red, white, and blue. The following UVa athletes will be competing for gold in London:

• Lauren Perdue, Swimming, 4x200 Freestyle Relay
• Matt McLean, Swimming, 4x200 Freestyle Relay
• Paige Selenski, Field Hockey
• Michelle Vittese, Field Hockey
• Becky Saurbrunn, Soccer
• Will Coleman, Equestrian

Meanwhile, these fellow Hoo’s will be representing different countries, but still look out for them as they follow their flag into Olympic Stadium.

• Somdev Devvarman, India, Tennis
• Katya Bachrouche, Lebanon, Swimming, 800 Freestyle
• David Karasek, Switzerland, Swimming, 200 Individual Medley
• Yannick Kaeser, Switzerland, Swimming, 200 Breaststroke

U! S! A! Go Hoos! Go!

Nat's at the All-Star Break

Now that the MLB season is at the All Star break, here is a look at some nuggets about the National’s much publicized successful season so far:

• DC has the best record in the NL at the All-Star break for first time since 1933
• The franchise has four players in the All-Star Game for the first time since 1994
• TV ratings are up 50%, 28% increase in attendance, “likes” on Facebook are up 30 percent, and Twitter followers are up 139 percent
• Bryce Harper became the youngest position player All Star ever
• The Nat’s pitching staff has the best ERA in the majors, best opponents batting average, best walk/hit to inning ratio, and fifth most strikeouts
• Home attendance is in the top half of the league, where they haven’t finished since 2005
• They’ve had all this success while battling injuries. Ryan Zimmerman missed 14 of 83 games, while LF Michael Morse missed 50. RF Jayson Werth has missed 56, but will be back in August as well as closer Drew Storen who has not pitched a game yet. Catcher Wilson Ramos only played in 25 games before going out for the year. That’s 24% of the ideal starting lineup starts missed from a first place team. 

Let's hope the Nationals keep this up instead of choking like in 2005 or the MLB striking like in 1994.

Imagine if the Nat's Were Slightly Healthier

Imagine if Drew Storen, Jayson Werth, and Michael Morse were healthy for the Washington Nationals.

Storen's replacement, Henry Rodriquez, has blown three saves already, which resulted in losses.  Storen only blew five out of 48 last year and only one that resulted in a loss. Imagine if he is healthy and saves those three games, or at least does not turn them into losses. The Nationals would then have a 29-14 record, second best in baseball.

Werth was batting .276 when he was injured, good for second on the team in April. Morse was batting .303, with 31 hrs and 95 rbis last year. Their replacements Bernadina, Ankiel, and Nady are batting a combined .202 this year. Washington has lost eight games by one run or less so far this year. If those two batters provided enough offense to win just four of those eight games, then their record would be 33-10, best in the majors by three games. That winning percentage would be .767, which projects out to 124 wins for the season, eight more than the all time record.

Needless to say, the Nat's would been pretty sweet if healthier.

P.S. Storen and Morse will be back in early June, Werth in August. Watch out MLB!