Lebron James and Peyton Manning Are One in the Same

ESPN posted an interesting article about Lebron James’s photographic memory:

    "LeBron will take one look at it the tv and know what game it is. He'll be like, 'Oh, that's Game 2 of the '97 Finals,' before they even put it on the screen."

This sounded very similar to an ESPN article about Peyton Manning’s memory last week:

     "Sometimes I can't remember if I checked a door at my house to see if it's locked or not," he said. "But I can remember a seam route to Marvin Harrison in 1999."

They must be long lost cousins or something! All joking aside, the two great players’ careers have strikingly a lot common: 

• Peyton has struggled in the big game, going 1-2 in the Super Bowl, while Lebron is only 2-3 in the NBA Finals
• Lebron was crushed in the most lopsided NBA Finals ever, while Peyton was blown out of the Super Bowl 43-8
• Peyton has led both the Heat and Cavs to the Finals, while Peyton has taken both the Colts and Broncos to the Super Bowl
• Lebron’s former boss is Hall of Famer Pat Riley who has six rings, while Peyton’s boss is Hall of Famer John Elway, who has two titles
• Peyton appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated before he was drafted #1 overall in 1998, same with Lebron in 2003
• Lebron has been thwarted and compared many times to future Hall of Fame player and coach Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich, while Peyton struggled and is contrasted with future Hall of Fame player and coach Tom Brady and Bill Belichick
• Lebron finally won his first title in his ninth season, same with Peyton
• Peyton’s free agency was the hot topic of the summer of 2012, while Lebron’s free agency decisions of 2010 and 2014 were national news 

Or you could go even deeper, outside of their careers:

• Both have receding hairlines
• Peyton's "Achilles Heel" is his neck, while Lebron suffers from leg cramps
• Both met their wives while in high school
• Both have appeared on SNL and the Simpsons
• Peyton's success in Indianapolis helped the city get a new stadium, while Cleveland's economy is half-jokingly based on Lebron 

Lastly, they both better turn their title fortunes around these coming seasons, or else I’ll be in for some more heartache.

The Return of the King: Lebron James is coming back to Cleveland!

After ripping out Cleveland fans’ hearts four years ago in “The Decision,” Lebron James decided today to come back to the Cavaliers. Instead of a television ESPN show, Lebron wrote an essay with Sports Illustrated which seemed heartfelt.  “My relationship with Northeast Ohio is bigger than basketball. I didn't realize that four years ago. I do now.” Much better than taking your talents to South Beach.

Three months ago, Cleveland missed the playoffs while Lebron and the Heat were headed into the playoffs looking to defend their title. It appeared that there was zero percent Lebron would be returning to the Cavaliers. How did this change?

• 0% - At end of the regular season the Cavs finished a disappointing season at 33-49.
• 1% - Despite only a 1.7% chance, Cleveland won the draft lottery for the third time in four years. Not only could the Cavaliers draft another top draft pick, but they could trade it for a proven star to entice Lebron to return. 
• 5% - In the NBA Finals, the Heat got crushed in the last three games, which exposed Miami as an aging team whose championship window was closing. 
• 10% - Lebron and his Heat teammates opted out of their contracts, making him a free agent. While it was still believed it was just a salary cap move to bring in more players, Lebron was no longer employed by Miami. 
• 15% - The Cavs resigned their All-Star point guard, Kyrie Irving, which showed that the franchise’s current building block was in place for the future.
• 25% - A week after opting out, Lebron’s agent only met with a handful of teams, including the Cavaliers. 
• 50% - This morning after all the meetings, moves, and rumors, it appeared there was a 50/50 chance Lebron would come to Cleveland. 

Leading up to his announcement, there were all sorts of crazy rumors and signs that Lebron was coming back to Cleveland.  Cavalier fans, bloggers, and reporters obsessed over any minute detail as if they were solving a crime.

• Bloggers tracked Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert’s plane as it went to Florida and back.
• There were pictures of moving trucks outside Lebron’s Miami home.
• Former Heat teammate Mike Miller posted a picture of himself working out with a Lebron Cleveland jersey in the background.
• There were random changes to Lebron’s website and twitter bio, and the site even crashed when it was rumored he would announce via his site.
• The Akron police department was given a heads up to be prepared, therefore huge crowds gathered by Lebron’s Akron home.

All this obsession shows how much Cleveland fans are passionate about their sports and how dearly they want a championship. It has been much discussed how Cleveland has not won a title in any sport since 1965, but they got a lot closer today. While I doubt the Cavaliers are going to go to four straight NBA Finals or win a title right away, having the best player in the world certainly helps.

On a personal note, I was crushed when Lebron left four years ago. I stopped watching the NBA Playoffs and I took down my pictures in front of the “Witness” billboard. However, I did not burn or throw away my Lebron jerseys or “Witness” shirt. While I am still pissed at “The Decision”, being closer to winning a championship is better than winning the draft lottery, so I welcome him back.

If that was not enough, the Cavaliers drafted UVa star Joe Harris in the second round two weeks ago as well. I was going to follow him and root for whatever team he was going to be on anyways. Now, the player I cheered for as he brought the Virginia Cavaliers an ACC title for the first time in 30 years will be hitting threes for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Oh, and don’t forget about Johnny Football.

Cleveland sports just got a lot more exciting.

USA Soccer vs The World

Every four years during the World Cup, there is the inevitable debate about why the United States is not more successful in international soccer. Considering the size of the country and our sports-obsessed culture, we would figure to be dominant in soccer as well. The common answer is that the most popular sport in the world is not the most popular sport in the USA and that our best athletes play in other sports. However, if all our best athletes played one sport, we would decline in other sports.  What is the tradeoff?  What are the other sports?

Looking at several rankings, the most popular sports in the world are:

Soccer
Cricket
Tennis
Basketball
Baseball
Hockey
Volleyball
Ping Pong/Table Tennis
Golf
American Football

Using international governing bodies rankings (like FIFA and FIBA) as well as various individual rankings (like ATP and PGA players countries of origin), below is how countries rank in the ten sports above (click to enlarge):

The United States has the most top ten rankings with seven. Also, the USA has the top ranked team in four sports, no other country has more than one. We have six teams in the top five, no other country has more than three.

What about the more all-encompassing world sporting event, the Olympics? Well, when looking at the total medal count in the past three winter and summer games, we have not been too shabby either:

Therefore, before we get all bent out of shape that USA Soccer is only ranked #13 and backed into being one of the 16 teams remaining in the World Cup, keep in mind our overall sports dominance.

Well, except cricket. According to the USA Cricket team’s Wikipedia page, “There are only five official cricket pitches in the United States and only three of the players on the cricket team are born in the United States.” That’s not a wicked googly.

Could Johnny Football become Johnny Cleveland?

As the NFL Draft on Thursday nears, I thought it was a good time to assess the Brown’s options. Once again, Cleveland is coming off of a disappointing year and will draft fourth overall.  Luckily the Browns have seven picks in the first four rounds to help improve the team. Cleveland filled some of their team needs by signing Ben Tate (RB), Karlos Dansby (LB), and Donte Whitner (CB) during the offseason, but still have a glaring hole at QB. While Brian Hoyer showed some flashes last season, the Browns could draft a QB for the long term future.

Drafting in the first round has not been Cleveland’s strong suit recently since their return in 1999. If you take a quick glance at the players below, you can see why the Browns might be best served by trading down in the first round while still getting a QB later in the draft.

Given this putrid history, there is no guarantee a non-QB will be successful anyways, so why not go for the polarizing QB Johnny “Football” Manziel? While WR Sammy Watkins is another rumored pick, who is going to throw the ball to him and All-Pro Josh Gordon? Drafting the former Heisman winner will certainly boost interest and sales for a franchise that has averaged 24th in attendance the past five years and has not had a player in the top 25 in jersey sales in three years. There are certainly plenty of positives to his game, including making/extending plays with his feet, while still throwing 63 TDs/22 Ints with 69% completion % in the SEC. His detractors point out his 6’1” height and the increased abilities of NFL defenders to track him down and cause turnovers. Will he be the next Russell Wilson or the next Tim Tebow? Only time will tell. He certainly will join an exclusive club:

NCAA March Madness Time!

Tomorrow is one of the best sports days of the year as the NCAA men’s basketball tournament begins. Usually I just focus on upsets, good games, picking the best bracket, etc. However, this year this year there is an extra incentive, as UVa capped off their ACC regular season championship with an ACC tournament title, earning a #1 seed in the East region. It was the first ACC regular season championship outright and #1 seed for the Cavs in over 30 years, and the first Tournament title since 1976. Now, do I follow my heart and pick the Hoo’s to win it all or do I listen to the experts and try to be more accurate with my bracket predictions?

First let’s take look at the trends from the past 28 seasons by round.

First round:

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 75% with #12 seeds Mississippi, California, and Oregon pulling off the upsets) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Kansas State went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 14% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year #3 New Mexico was upset though)

Second round:

• Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (#1 Gonzaga was upset by eventual Final Four team Wichita St, who happen to be undefeated this year)
• Meanwhile 36% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Georgetown was upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 12% of the time has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (which actually did happen once last year)

Sweet 16:

• 70% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (was 25% last year with only champion Louisville advancing) 
• On the other side of the region, 72% are either #2 or #3 seeds (100% last year)

Elite Eight:

• Only one time in 33 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (which was no exception last year) 
• 41% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (no #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 18 (#1, #4, #4, #9) was way above average.)

If those are the yearly trends, then who did the experts pick this year? Here is a breakdown of 22 “expert” brackets.

Championship:

• 32% of the experts chose #1 seed Florida to win the entire thing (compared to 75% for eventual champ Louisville last year)
• UVa was the only #1 seed not picked of the six different teams
• 27% picked #4 Michigan State with 8 losses while only 9% picked undefeated #1 Wichita State

Runner Up:

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 31% #4 Louisville was the highest
• 22% have Florida over Louisville

Final Four:

• 86% picked #4 Michigan State to reach the Final Four, while only 1 expert picked UVa
• Only 27% picked #1 Wichita State, while 55% picked #4 Louisville, out of the Midwest Region
• #1 Florida 68%, #2 Kansas 32% in what looks an entertaining South regional Final
• Sorry Wildcats fans, Villanova was the only #2 seed not picked
• No teams outside of the top #4 seeds were picked, how boring

Elite Eight:

• 100% of brackets picked Florida in the Elite Eight
• 90% have #4 MSU facing #3 Iowa State, which is absurd considering only 16% of #4 seeds and 26% of #3 seeds even make the Elite Eight
• #4 Louisville and #1 Wichita State are split 60/40
• Only 9% picked UVa, the lowest #1 seed, and 0% for #2 seed Villanova

Sweet Sixteen:

• 23% have Kentucky beating #1 Wichita State, but only one bracket had #4 MSU or #3 Iowa State losing
• All 20 experts picked #4 Louisville to make the Sweet 16, stunning considering half the #4 seeds do not make it there
• #2 Kansas 55% vs. #7 New Mexico 45% looks like a great game
• Same with #2 Villanova 55% vs. #7 UConn 40%

Conclusions

• Since 30% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, UVa or Wichita St. are the choices to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Villanova and Kansas have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so experts pick against Creighton as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Since only one time out of 34 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, experts think UVa and Wichita St. look the most vulnerable. 

After looking at the trends and expert picks I am even more inclined to pick UVa to win it all. If the entire pool picks MSU, Louisville, etc, I gain an advantage by picking UVa if they win, while not gaining anything by picking against Virginia.  The consensus of the expert picks is staggering though. Using the Ken Pomeroy rankings (the en vogue college basketball sabermetrics rankings), UVa is the #4th best team in the country while MSU is #10. Granted Michigan State is now fully healthy and coming off a BIG 10 tournament title and they may be underseeded as a #4. However, they have gone 8-7 in their past 15 games, while UVa has only one loss in a meaningful game since New Year’s.  Historic trends have #1 seeds advancing 70% of the time in this matchup, while only 16% of #4 seeds, but the 22 experts picked 9% #1 seed/91% #4 seed.

Meanwhile on the other side of the region, which team do you think got 95% of the picks to make the elite eight? The #7 ranked team or the #22, #25, or #26 ranked teams? Iowa State, the #22 ranked team, was predicted to win in 21 of the 22 brackets, while #7 Villanova got zero.

Either the experts or on to something that I do not know about, or maybe I found out a key to who I am picking this week.  That’s why they play the games.

UVa’s Men’s Basketball’s Historic Season Reaches New Heights This Weekend Against Syracuse

Last night, #12 UVa’s men’s basketball team cruised to their 12th straight victory and 15th in the last 16 games. The Cavaliers now have a 15-1 ACC record and are in first place by 1.5 games over #4 Syracuse, which comes into Charlottesville on Saturday. The Wahoo’s can extend their magical season by claiming their 2nd outright ACC title ever with a win. Here are some stats on how historic this season has been for Virginia:

• The last time they won an ACC title outright was in 1981, over 30 years ago
• It’s the first time the program has won 12 straight ACC games since 1981-82
• UVa also improved to 19 games above .500 for the first time since 1982-83
• They won a program-record 11th ACC game by double figures.
• The Hoos have won 17 straight home ACC games, a new school record
• They have led by 19 or more in 12 of 16 ACC games

How has a team that did not make the NCAA tournament last year and was not ranked until three weeks ago able to run rampant over the toughest conference in the country? It all starts with the defense:

• The Cavaliers have the #1 defense in the country in points per game and #8 in defensive FG%
• They have held 16 straight teams below their season average for points
• The offense is balanced as well, since seven different players have led the team in scoring

The game will be nationally televised on ESPN with Dickie V doing the commentary.  It has been sold out for months with the cheapest nosebleed ticket currently going for $268 on Stubhub.  ESPN already has video breaking down the match-up: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=10518180

The basketball game is not the only sports action in Charlottesville on Saturday though. After the game, across the street, the #4 men’s lacrosse team hosts the #6 team in the country. What rival successful lacrosse team warrants the night time matchup? You guessed it, Syracuse. Earlier in the day, UVa’s top #5 ranked baseball, tennis, and women's lacrosse teams are in action as well.  Hopefully the Hoo’s can pull out the upset to continue their historic season and confirm my prophetic tweet from last March:

How do you beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl?

MVP Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are the favorite in this week’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks. While Denver has had a record breaking season, they have been beaten three times. A little analysis below reveals how the Broncos have performed in their 15 wins and 3 losses:

In the wins: Plus 2 in the turnover margin
In the losses: Minus 4

In the wins: Only 30% of their drives ended in punts
In the losses: Up to 50%

In the wins: 40% of their drives ended with touchdowns
In the losses: Only 20%

In the wins: Three times more touchdowns than 3 & outs
In the losses: Had more 3 & outs than touchdowns

In the wins: Averaged 28 first downs on offense and gave up 20 on defense
In the losses: Averaged 23 first downs on offense and gave up 23 on defense

In the wins: Gave up 89 rushing yards on average
In the losses: Gave up 138 rushing yards on average

Therefore, in order for the Seahawks to prevent Peyton Manning from winning his second Super Bowl, they need to run the ball for first downs, while limiting the record setting Broncos offense to turnovers and 3 & outs on defense. Good luck.

Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady is Upon Us

This Sunday, the biggest individual rivalry in professional sports repeats itself when Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The two hall of fame bound quarterbacks face off for the 15th time and fourth time in the playoffs.  In case you are not fed up with the non-stop coverage on ESPN, here are some different takes on the rivalry:

Here is a Sporcle quiz comparing their stats:

http://www.sporcle.com/games/klofton798/manning-vs-brady-stats

Here are some fun facts on the matchup:

• 6 of the last 7 Manning-Brady meetings have been decided by 7 points or less
• 7 of the last 12 Super Bowls have included either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
• The last time the Patriots played a road playoff game? The 2006 AFC Championship Game against the Colts
• Peyton Manning & Tom Brady's combined age of 74.3 is the oldest ever between opposing starting QBs in a Conference Championship Game
• Manning and Brady will be the 1st QBs to meet in playoff games 10 seasons apart in the Super Bowl era (2003 & 2013 AFC Championship games).

Both Manning and Brady have appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated over a dozen times:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Meanwhile, as pitchmen, they are completely different as this article details. Brady is married to a supermodel wife and endorses Ugg boots and Movado watches, while Manning and his “aww shucks” “down to earth” personality pitches Papa John’s and Mastercard.

I know what I’ll be watching at 3pm on Sunday… with my Papa John’s pizza.

The Caps Specialize At Being Uneven

After crushing the Islanders 6-2 the other night, the Capitals are now the NHL leader in two important categories, Power Play Percentage and Penalty Killing Percentage.  The league average for scoring when you are in the power play advantage is 18%, which Washington is leading at 28%. Looking the other way, DC leads the NHL in preventing opponents from scoring on the advantage at 8%, with the same 18% league average.  

Controlling these key moments in the game correlates into victories, as the top ten power play % teams and 8 of the top 10 penalty killing teams currently have winning records. Only once in the past 8 seasons has a team even finished in the top three in both categories at the end of the year, and that team had the best record in the league and made the Cup Finals.

Then why are the Caps only 8-7? Well, when playing at even numbers, they are below average.  Washington has outscored opponents for the season 50-42, but when at even strength they are being outscored 37-33. They are the only team in the NHL with that oddity.

DC may be relying too much on the power play since 35% of their goals are from being up a man, third highest rank in the NHL, when the average is 23%. Keep in mind that teams only average 4 power plays or 8 penalty minutes per a 60 minute game. This means that the Caps are only in each of these situations 12% of the time on the ice, while stinking up the other 76%. How about some more 5 on 5 drills at practice, coach?

2-0 NFL Teams vs. 0-2 Teams

After two weeks of the NFL season, there are eight teams that are 2-0 and eight teams that are 0-2.  I have seen the statistic several times today stating that 63% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs, while only 12% of 0-2 teams do. Now that 12% of the season is already done, which of the 2-0 teams should start printing out playoff tickets and which of the 0-2 teams should start working on their draft board?

First take a look at the eight teams that are off to a fast start, in multiple categories:

Since statistically only 63%, or 5 of these 8 will make the playoffs, which ones will advance? What is the best indicator of team success? The easiest trend is if the team made the playoffs last year, then they should make it again. However, half the teams on this list did not make it last year. Maybe last year was a fluke and the five year records will be a better predictor. Well Teams D and B have great percentages, while C and H have had several losing seasons recently. If “defense wins championships”, then certainly Teams C and H are in since they are among the tops in defensive yards and points allowed. The NFL is an offensive league now though, so the top offenses of Teams F and G are strong bets to make the playoffs. Game by game, winning the turnover battle is key, therefore Team C and H are starting the season off well, while Team A, B, and F need some work to do. After looking at these metrics overall, Teams C and G are playoff bound, while Teams A, B, and E will be the 3 in the 37% that do not make it.

Now for the teams on the other end of the spectrum, which started off 0-2:









Looking at the same metrics as before, Teams I and K made the playoffs last year and have above average scoring offenses, so maybe they can turn their seasons around. Team L and M are even in the turnover battle, and have above average scoring defenses. Teams J and O have great records in the past five years, so maybe they just got off to a rough start this season. Looking at the rankings overall, it looks like Team L has the best chance of being the one team to make the playoffs after a 0-2 start.

Here is the team key:



It’s not surprising that Seattle and Denver are the two best, but Chicago and New Orleans need more than history and fan base to get in. There is no guarantee Pittsburgh, NY Giants, or Washington are turning it around, while Tampa Bay’s defense and turnover margin can give their fans some hope.

Runningback’s Decline Not Just Due to Turning 30

In the world of fantasy football, there are many theories and clichés to predict a player’s rise and fall. The “third year receiver”, “handcuff” your runningback, and “avoid kickers and defenses” theories are common, and I have even written about the “30 year old RB wall” one previously. Further research goes beyond just the age of RB’s, but at carries and performance to predict their decline as well.

When looking runningback stats from the past 13 seasons, there are some interesting trends about the decline of a RB’s performance from year to year.  There are certain benchmarks signifying a good season that RB’s strive to meet year to year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 123 10 rushing touchdown seasons, but only 49 (40%) of those RB’s got at least 10 TD’s the next year.
2. Of the RB’s who were in the top #10 in scoring that year, only 47 (39%) were in the top #10 the following season.
3. 63 RB’s scored 150 fantasy points or more in a season, with only 21 (33%) reaching that mark the next year.
4. The 1,500 yard rushing mark has been eclipsed 51 times, but only repeated 13 times or 25%.

What does this mean for last year’s RB’s? Four RB’s had seasons last year that fit each of the criteria above, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore.  Following the percentages above, only one or two of those RB’s will reach those benchmarks again.  Frank Gore has played seven full seasons and is already 30, and Lynch had never been over 1500 yards or 150 points before in his six year career, so they are good bets from that group to regress.

There is another factor to look at besides players peaking, which is the amount of carries. Runningbacks take a pounding carrying the ball throughout the season, and thus have shorter careers as compared to quarterbacks or wide receivers.  This wear and tear leads to decreasing point production the following year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 21 RB’s that carried the ball 370+ times in a season, and 19 (90%) of them had a decrease in points the next season for an average of 40% less points.
2. 34 RB’s with 350+ carries, with 28 (82%) decreasing an average of 36%.
3. 49 340+ carries, with 41 (84%) decreasing an average of 50%.
4. 104 300+ carries, with 73 (70%) decreasing an average of 48%.

As far as last year’s RB’s go, Foster and Peterson had 370+ carries, while Lynch had 340+ and Gore had 300+. Ray Rice had 340+ carries and met some of the earlier criteria as well. Two other RB’s got 300+ carries but were rookies or second year players, Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley.  Following the percentages, you would expect all of these RB’s, except the two young ones, to see a decrease in point totals next year.  

Therefore, when it comes to draft day, I would avoid some of these workhorses who are not likely to repeat their performances and opt for younger RB’s who are coming into their primes. 

Now It's Time to Panic for the Nats

Now that the Nationals have lost six in a row, it is officially time to panic in the nation’s capital. At this point last season, Washington was 20 games above .500, at 60-40. Now through 100 games this season, the Nat’s are four games below .500 with only a 48-52 record.  What happened to the team that was picked to make the World Series?

The Nationals' strength last year was the excellent pitching staff from top to bottom. Last season they were 1^st in the NL in ERA, opponent’s batting average, and walks/hits per inning. Now those numbers have slipped to 6^th, 7^th, and 5^th. These numbers are reflected in the bullpen as well, which went from 3^rd best to 8^th.  Even though the stats declined from last year, the numbers are still respectable, and indicative of a winning ballclub. What about the other factors in baseball?

In DC’s first place season last year, the team finished 4^th in batting average, 5^th in runs, and 6^th in on base percentage.  Now the Nationals’ bats have struggled to 13^th, 14^th, and 14^th out of the 15 NL teams in those respective categories.  They have not fared any better in the field as Washington fell from 4^th to 15^th in number of fielding errors and 2^nd to 15^th in fielding percentage.

Despite these numbers, teams find a way to win by cliche sports terms like lucky or clutch. Batters can be clutch when runners are in scoring position or when called to pinch hit. Last season they were 7^th and 1^st in batting average in those situations, but now 11^th and 12^th.  In close games, the team has faltered as well. They went from 27-21 in one run games and 13-7 in extra inning games last year to just 16-14 and 5-7 in those situations now.

                The reason the Nationals had such lofty expectations this season was that they either improved or returned each spot of their roster. The team has not seen major injuries, and is healthier overall compared to last season.  How could a team (not full of aging vets, but young rising stars) get worse without major injuries or key player movement?

                The answer? Mojo. Curses. Karma. Whatever you want to call it, but there is definitely something going on in the mental makeup of the players. It started in the last month of the regular season last year when Strasburg was cautiously benched due to his innings limit, starting the Strasburg curse. Then in one of the last home games of the year, winless Racing President Teddy Roosevelt finally won, creating the Teddy curse.  Now a mediocre president, Taft, joined the race, bringing mediocrity to the 4^th inning entertainment and possibly another curse.

On a more realistic note, one player change in the offseason might have an unforeseen mental impact as well. Goofball slugger Michael Morse brought humor to the clubhouse and broke up the tension last season with his antics, but was traded away in January. Now the pressure of meeting lofty expectations may be getting to the young team.  Perhaps the Nationals can overcome the statistic and curses to use the remaining 62 games to catch the injury-riddled Braves and win the division again.

Andrew Bynum to the Cavs is High Reward, Low Risk

Last night the Cleveland Cavaliers signed free agent center Andrew Bynum to a two-year incentive-laden deal for $24 million. It is a wise move for the team since it appears to be high reward for little risk.

The deal is full of incentives and low on guaranteed money because Bynum missed all of last season with a knee injury and has only played in 60% of the possible games in his career. The contract has a team option for the second year, meaning they can cut him without penalty after the first season if it does not pan out. This is not a spending spree type of move that hurts the salary cap, since the worst case scenario is only $6 million for one year. Meanwhile in comparison, free agents Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, and David West signed multi-year deals this year for at least $12 million a year.

It is a high reward move because two seasons ago the 25-year-old averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game.  The 7-footer was an All-Star and second team All-NBA selection that year.  If healthy, he plugs into a Cleveland front court that includes veteran Anderson Varejo, #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett, #4 pick two years ago Tristan Thompson, and All-Rookie selection Tyler Zeller. Meanwhile, the main core of the team is the young backcourt, led by All-Star 21-year-old point guard Kyrie Irving (above) and All-Rookie selection Dion Waiters. That is a talented eight man rotation with only Varejo being over 25 years old. Several blogs below have the Cavs making the playoffs and even the #5 seed now, if healthy. A big if.

This seems like a lot of optimism for a team that finished with the third worst record in the NBA last year.  However, in the past two months, Cleveland won the draft lottery, made a bold pick at #1, and picked up a former All-Star center on the cheap.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/22713400/how-signing-andrew-bynum-can-work-for-the-cavaliers

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1700246-best-case-worst-case-scenarios-for-andrew-bynum-era-in-cleveland

http://www.rantsports.com/nba/2013/07/10/andrew-bynum-makes-cleveland-cavaliers-an-instant-playoff-team/

Where’s the Love and Runs for Strasburg?

Last night, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings, lowering his earned run average to 2.24 which is the 5th best in the National League. However, Washington did not score any runs either, and ended up losing the game 4-0. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence this season, as Strasburg has received a major league low 2.44 runs per game from the offense, causing him to only have a 4-6 record.

With the All-Star game coming up, this lack of run support will hurt the ace’s chances to make the team.  Unfortunately win/loss record is a prominent, overrated statistic used to evaluate pitchers despite the reliance on outside factors.  If you were a manager choosing the NL pitchers, which three would you pick from the players below?

Pitcher A – Record of 10-3, team is 49-33 and is one of the most popular/successful teams
Pitcher B – Record of 9-4, 13-year veteran and former all-star
Pitcher C – Record of 9-6, team is 49-34 and is in first place
Pitcher D – Record of 4-6, team is playing .500 and under-achieving
Pitcher E – Record of 5-4, on a team with the worst record and attendance in the NL
Pitcher F – Record of 5-6, team is 11 games below .500 and in fourth place.

Clearly managers, using the antiquated notion of helping your team win is the same as a win/loss record, would choose pitchers A, B, and C. Meanwhile, there are plenty of other stats to choose from to evaluate pitchers, including earned run average (ERA), opponents batting average (BAA), and walks/hits per innings pitched (WHIP). Having read MoneyBall recently, I have even more profound appreciation for more efficient and revealing stats, like wins above replacement (WAR) and defense-independent ERA (DIPS).  Now look how the pitchers above rank using the five metrics mentioned:

Pitcher A – ERA of 3.75 (31st in the NL out of 32 qualifying pitchers), 25th in WAR, 22nd in WHIP
Pitcher B – Dead last in DIPS, WAR, and WHIP, 30th in ERA
Pitcher C – Not in the top 26 in any category.
Pitcher D – 5th in ERA, top 10 in three other categories
Pitcher E – 3rd in BAA, top 11 in three others
Pitcher F – 4th in BAA, top 13 in three others

It would now make more sense to choose pitchers D, E, and F to the All-Star game using these stats.  When looking at the averages of all these rankings, these three pitchers would rank in the top 10 overall in the NL, worthy of one of the nine starting pitcher spots on the team. Meanwhile pitchers A, B, and C are ranked 22nd, 31st, and 32nd.

Will pitchers D (Strasburg), E, and F make the team? We will find out Saturday when the rosters are revealed.

UVa Men’s Tennis Won the NCAA Title

After years of getting painstakingly close to a title, the UVa Men’s tennis team finally won its first championship today in dramatic fashion.  With the title match tied 3-3 against UCLA, the Wahoos were down to their final point in the third and final set, when sophomore Mitchell Frank rallied to win four straight games to clinch the title. The victory was Virginia’s 30^th to cap off an undefeated season.  Here are some quick stats on the Cavaliers historic season and recent run of dominance.

• During the season, they won their 100^th consecutive ACC match.
• Their combined match record was 160-22.
• This is only the third match of the season that the opponent even got three match wins
• This was their third straight title game appearance, falling to USC the previous two times
• In the past eight seasons, UVa has a combined team record of 256-13 for a .952 winning percentage.
• This gives Virginia it’s 20^th national title overall, fourth most in the ACC.

Time to get a new t-shirt.