Should the Caps Want the #1 Seed?

Ever since their nine game winning streak brought them to the top of the conference standings, the Capitals have been chasing the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the East. The top team gets the number one seed in the playoffs and home field advantage. However, when looking at recent NHL playoff history, is this something Washington really wants?

In the past ten NHL playoffs, number one seeds have not fared well, especially in the East. Only two #1 seeds made the Stanley Cup Final with only one winner (Tampa Bay). The average seed in either conference to make the Finals is 3.1, which is higher than in the NFL (2.4) and NBA (2.0) during that time frame. Many things factor into this including hot goalies and more prominent home field advantage in the other sports. Oddly enough, when looking at the winners of the Stanley Cup, the NHL has the lowest average seed at 2.0 compared to 3.2 and 2.1 from the other sports. This can be attributed to the NFL playing the Super Bowl at a neutral site and the NBA Finals switching to a 2-3-2 home/away/home format.

Of course the actual matchups matter as well, which also supports a caution for the Capitals pursuit of the top spot. At the current standings, the #6 seed would be Montreal, #7 Buffalo, and #8 New York, with Carolina on the outside looking in. DC is a combined 10-3 against the Canadians, Sabres, and Hurricanes this year, while only 1-3 against the Rangers. If they overcome recent injuries and the Flyers for the best record in the conference, the Caps will be facing a New York team that embarrassed them 6-0 and 7-0 already this season.

I do not know about you, but I would want all the luck and matchups I can get for the playoffs, especially after last season’s debacle. So I say, rest some starters tending injuries and get ready for the Sabres.

Virginia Spring Sports Back at it Again

After uneventful football and basketball seasons, UVa’s more successful sports are now in full swing. Virginia’s baseball and tennis teams are ranked #1 in the country, while lacrosse was #2 last week.

The baseball team made national headlines this week due to Will Roberts' perfect game against George Washington, despite GW’s reporting. It was the first one in the program’s history, and the first time nationally in nine years. The Cavaliers took over the #1 ranking going into the Colonials game and have compiled a 25-2 record so far this season. After defeating then #4 Clemson and #4 Florida State five games to one in ACC competition earlier, the Wahoos travel to Blacksburg this weekend to take on the Hokies.

Meanwhile the tennis team is #1 and undefeated at 20-0. Yawn. Virginia has not been out of the top #2 since February 2009, over 82 matches ago. In fact, the Cavs have only lost 15 out of 149 games this season. Only six more ACC matches remain until postseason play begins.

As for the lacrosse team, it seems to be a down year for them, since they already lost two games this season. Even though the Hoos only lost by a combined three goals to Syracuse and Johns Hopkins on the road, they slipped to #6 this past week. It is the first time UVa has dropped out of the top #5 in over three seasons. The Cavaliers start their three game ACC schedule this week against Maryland at Scott Stadium.

These teams also had hot starts last year which I wrote about, but then choked in the playoffs, which I unfortunately also noted. I hope these teams reverse these trends this year.

Ode to Gus Johnson

After watching replays of George Mason’s thrilling finish over Villanova last week, I realized why there was heightened excitement compared to other games last weekend. The most underrated play by play announcer in sports today was calling the game, Gus Johnson. While he is not a household name, like Al Michaels or Marv Albert, and you would not recognize him walking down the street, like John Madden or Charles Barkley, you would recognize his voice.

His exciting style turns any bucket into a game winner, while monotone Joe Buck could turn a World Series winning homerun into a snoozefest. While Johnson is noted mostly for his NCAA basketball coverage for CBS, he also announces NFL games including these memorable endings recently:

Last year, he was the voice of the Madden videogame and now even has a soundboard for his famous catch phrases. I want him around announcing my life… “Here comes the email, count it!” “The laundry is done, unbelievable!”

NCAA March Madness Bracket Tips (2011 Edition)

Last year I wrote a post around March Madness time about displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. I originally based the stats off of the past eight seasons. Since then I went back and included the past 25 seasons as well as the results that followed the trends last year.

In the first round:
· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 14 of 32 possible times, or 44% (25 season average is 34%, last year it was 25% with #12 Cornell beating #5 Temple)
· 22% of #4 seeds go down (25 year-21%, last year #4 Vanderbilt was upset)
· Meanwhile only 6% of #3 seeds lose their first game (25 year is higher at 15%, last year #3 Georgetown screwed up my bracket in the opening game)

In the second round:
· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)
· Only 3 (or 9%) of #1 seeds were upset (25 year is slightly higher at 12%, which #1 Kansas’s stunner to Northern Iowa proves can be even higher)
· Meanwhile 38% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (25 year average is at 36%, and #2 Villanova’s loss to St. Mary’s was the wrong #2 I picked to fall)
· Only 5 times (or 16%) has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:
· 78% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (The 25 year average is a little less at 73% and was only 50% when #1 Syracuse joined Kansas at home early as well last year)
· On the other side of the region, 78% are either #2 or #3 seeds (71% for 25 year average and 75% last year)

Elite Eight round:
· Only one time in 30 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
· 44% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (The 25 year average is also at 44%, while only #1 Duke made it last year)
· #2 seeds make it 25% of the time (22% over 25 years, and 25% last year with only #2 West Virginia surviving their region)
· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 9.25. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (The 25 year average is 9.88, and last year’s average of 13 (#1, #2 #5, #5) was slightly above average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets and did not win my pool. Boo. Maybe I should listen to this blog which analyzes travel time and preseason polling.

Beware of Caps Winning Streaks

After earlier struggles this year, including an eight game losing streak in December, the Capitals seem to have righted the ship with an eight game winning streak. They are back in first place in the division and one point away from the top seed in the Eastern Conference. However, looks can be deceiving.

In their eight game winning streak, six games were at home against teams with a combined winning percentage of .438. If the season ended today, only two of the eight teams would be in the playoffs. In addition, only one of the games was decided by more than one goal, against the team with worst record in the league.

The scarier part is that the next six games are all on the road against tougher competition. These teams have a combined .521 percentage and four of the six are playoff teams. One of the non-playoff teams is red hot New Jersey Devils, which has won 22 of its last 27 games.

Sure, teams will have ups and downs during the season, but this is strikingly similar to last season. Around this point last season, Washington rattled off 14 wins in a row, moving into first place. Only six of the 14 were playoff teams for a record of .470 and nine of the games were at the Verizon Center. Then the Caps promptly dropped three in a row, on the road, to teams with a .500 winning percentage.

Still not scared? The team that snapped the winning streak last season and the team Washington plays tonight are the same…the Canadians, and we all know how that ended up last year.

Defense wins Championships for the Caps?

As the NHL regular season winds down, this year's Capitals team is trying to reverse its postseason fortunes with a new approach. In the past three seasons, Washington’s run and gun style of play has been entertaining, but come playoff time has been lacking the experience and tough defense to advance. Even without drastic roster or coaching changes, there seem to be more and more 1-0 defensive struggle games this season. The stats this year surprisingly show that Boudreau is actually implementing this philosophy.

· In 2008, the Caps were 8^th in the league in goals per game, then third and first last year. This year, they have fallen to 22^nd at 2.63.

· On the other hand, Washington’s goals against were 18^th, 19^th, and 16^th. Now at 2.45 goals per game, their re-dedicated defense ranks 7^th in the league.

· Mirroring these stats, the Capitals went from 6^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd in shots to 12^th now, and 9^th, 13^th, and 18^th in shots against to back to 9^th again.

· Even the goaltending has improved. With two relative rookies in the net this year, the Caps rank 8^th in the league at .916 save %, a far cry from the days of Jose “Three or More” and other veterans at 14^th, 21^st, and 24^th the past three seasons.

· Meanwhile the special teams have drastically changed as well. Going from 25^th in the league in penalty killing last year to 5^th place (85.3%) this year is commendable. However, the Caps are only 25^th (16.1%) in power play percentage this season, after leading the NHL last year, which is probably not what Boudreau had in mind.

How do these stats reflect in wins? Well, the past three seasons they were 13^th, 4^th, and 1^st in standings and were out of the playoffs in the 1^st, 2^nd, and 1^st round. This season the Capitals are only 8^th in the standings, and are probably not going to win their division unlike the previous three years. As for the playoffs this year …