Experts and Trends on NCAA Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked. Whether to follow the pack or be unique with your own picks is up to you.

Championship

• 70% of the experts chose Kentucky to win the entire thing

Runner Up

• 8 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% UNC highest
• 30% have Kentucky over UNC

Final Four

• 90% picked Kentucky to reach the Final Four
• Only 20% picked #1 MSU, while 50% picked #2 Missouri out of the West Region
• #2 Kansas 50%, #1 UNC 45% from Midwest region
• 0% Georgetown, only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 30% FSU, highest #3 seed, and will increase with Syracuse suspension, #2 OSU only 20%

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets had Kentucky in the Elite Eight
• 60% #3 Baylor, only 25% #2 Duke
• Only 60% MSU, lowest #1 seed
• Kansas 80%, highest #2 seed
• FSU 55%, OSU 45%, no others picked to meet there

Sweet Sixteen

• 3 #1 seeds got 95% or higher, except MSU, which 20% picked to be upset by #8 Memphis
• 3 #2 seeds got 85% or higher, except Duke, which 25% picked #10 Xavier or #7 ND
• FSU and Baylor strongest #3 seeds with 90% and 85%
• Georgetown and Marquette weakest #3 at only 55% and 65%
• #6 Murray State 35% over #3 Marquette
• 25% #11 NC State or 20% #6 San Diego over Georgetown
• #5 Vanderbilt 55%, #4 Wisconsin 45%, essentially a toss up
• Good luck guessing between #5 Wichita St 50%, #4 Indiana 30%, #12 VCU 20%
• Or these #4 Louisville 40%, #5 New Mexico 30%, #12 Long Beach 25%

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, MSU is a good choice to falter.
• Since 37% of #2 seeds are upset in the 2^nd round, Duke is the trendy pick to go down.
• Only 13% of the time does a region go #1, #2, #3, #4, so pick against Georgetown as a #3 seed to continue this trend.
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 over a #4 which is a toss-up, or a #12 like Long Beach or VCU.
• Since only 1 one time out of 31 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, MSU and Syracuse look like most vulnerable.