Experts and Trends on NCAA Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked. Whether to follow the pack or be unique with your own picks is up to you.

Championship

• 70% of the experts chose Kentucky to win the entire thing

Runner Up

• 8 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% UNC highest
• 30% have Kentucky over UNC

Final Four

• 90% picked Kentucky to reach the Final Four
• Only 20% picked #1 MSU, while 50% picked #2 Missouri out of the West Region
• #2 Kansas 50%, #1 UNC 45% from Midwest region
• 0% Georgetown, only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 30% FSU, highest #3 seed, and will increase with Syracuse suspension, #2 OSU only 20%

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets had Kentucky in the Elite Eight
• 60% #3 Baylor, only 25% #2 Duke
• Only 60% MSU, lowest #1 seed
• Kansas 80%, highest #2 seed
• FSU 55%, OSU 45%, no others picked to meet there

Sweet Sixteen

• 3 #1 seeds got 95% or higher, except MSU, which 20% picked to be upset by #8 Memphis
• 3 #2 seeds got 85% or higher, except Duke, which 25% picked #10 Xavier or #7 ND
• FSU and Baylor strongest #3 seeds with 90% and 85%
• Georgetown and Marquette weakest #3 at only 55% and 65%
• #6 Murray State 35% over #3 Marquette
• 25% #11 NC State or 20% #6 San Diego over Georgetown
• #5 Vanderbilt 55%, #4 Wisconsin 45%, essentially a toss up
• Good luck guessing between #5 Wichita St 50%, #4 Indiana 30%, #12 VCU 20%
• Or these #4 Louisville 40%, #5 New Mexico 30%, #12 Long Beach 25%

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, MSU is a good choice to falter.
• Since 37% of #2 seeds are upset in the 2^nd round, Duke is the trendy pick to go down.
• Only 13% of the time does a region go #1, #2, #3, #4, so pick against Georgetown as a #3 seed to continue this trend.
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 over a #4 which is a toss-up, or a #12 like Long Beach or VCU.
• Since only 1 one time out of 31 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, MSU and Syracuse look like most vulnerable.

Picking your Final Four Bracket

For the last two years I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 26 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round:

· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 34% of the time (last year it was 25% with #12 Richmond beating #5 Vanderbilt)

· 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Louisville was upset last year)

· Meanwhile only 15% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

In the second round:

· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)

· Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (Has happened two years in a row though)

· Meanwhile 37% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#10 Florida State upset #2 Notre Dame last year)

· Only or 13% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:

· 71% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was only 25% last year when only #1 Kansas survived)

· On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

Elite Eight round:

· Only one time in 31 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)

· 42% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (No #1 seeds made it last year)

· #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (No #2 seeds made it last year as well)

· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10.5. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 26 (#3, #4, #8, #11) was more than double the average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. ESPN must have read this post earlier, since they have a version as well.