Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship

• 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked

Runner Up

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% Miami highest
• 30% have Louisville beating Miami

Final Four

• 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
• The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
• #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
• Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
• Duke and MSU are split 50/50
• Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
• Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
• Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette

Sweet Sixteen

• #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
• All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
• Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
• #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
• #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
• Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

Picking your NCAA Tourny Bracket

Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round: 

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

 In the second round: 

• Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset 
• Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

 Sweet 16 round: 

• 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering) 
• On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

 Elite Eight round: 

• Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year) 
• 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 9 (#1, #2, #2, #4) was about average).

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. 

HellUVa Week for Virginia Sports

Last night UVa earned a marquee win over #3 Duke 73-68 on national TV essentially clinching a spot in the big dance. Here are some of the key stats:

• The last time the Cavaliers beat a top 5 team was exactly 11 years ago, against #3 Duke.
• Duke never had the lead.
• The Blue Devils only had one offensive rebound after averaging 10 for the season.
• Joe Harris had a career high 36 points, the most for any player against Duke since 2006, and the most in the ACC this season.
• Harris is now 2^nd in the ACC in scoring, 3^rd in FG%, 3^rd in 3PT FG%, and 4^th in FT%, and is in consideration for ACC Player of the Year and has his own Twitter feed pushing for it https://twitter.com/JoeHarrisACCPOY
• This picture is in consideration for picture of the year as well.
• Akil Mitchell also had a great game with 19 points (2^nd highest this year) and 12 rebounds (2^nd highest as well).
• UVA is now 10-5 in the ACC, with 4 top 50 RPI wins, greatly improving their NCAA tournament selection chances.

Meanwhile Virginia’s men’s spring sports are undefeated so far.  #19 Baseball has started off 8-0 with a combined score of 84-19. #1 Tennis is 6-0, including the Indoor Championship against arch-rival USC.  #6 Lacrosse is 4-0, scoring a combined 62-34, with a huge matchup tonight against Syracuse. Not to be outdone, the Football team got a big boost, when they got a commitment from the #4 ranked recruit in the country as well.  Not to put too much stock in these things, but from 2002-2008 29 of the 35 top 5 rated recruits went on to become NFL starters.

Great week to be a Wahoo Fan!