Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some
interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament.
Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that
followed last year.
In the first
round:
- #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.)
- 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year)
- Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)
- Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset
- Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10)
- Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)
- 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering)
- On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)
- Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)
- 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year)
- #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)
While last
year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the
correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo.
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