Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets














After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship
  • 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
  • Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked
Runner Up
  • 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
  • 30% Miami highest
  • 30% have Louisville beating Miami
Final Four
  • 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
  • Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
  • The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
  • #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
  • Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
  • 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
  • 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked
Elite Eight
  • 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
  • Duke and MSU are split 50/50
  • Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
  • Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
  • Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette
Sweet Sixteen
  • #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
  • All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
  • Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
  • #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
  • #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game
Conclusions
  • Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
  • Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
  • Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
  • Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
  • Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

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