How do you beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl?

MVP Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are the favorite in this week’s Super Bowl against the Seattle Seahawks. While Denver has had a record breaking season, they have been beaten three times. A little analysis below reveals how the Broncos have performed in their 15 wins and 3 losses:

In the wins: Plus 2 in the turnover margin
In the losses: Minus 4

In the wins: Only 30% of their drives ended in punts
In the losses: Up to 50%

In the wins: 40% of their drives ended with touchdowns
In the losses: Only 20%

In the wins: Three times more touchdowns than 3 & outs
In the losses: Had more 3 & outs than touchdowns

In the wins: Averaged 28 first downs on offense and gave up 20 on defense
In the losses: Averaged 23 first downs on offense and gave up 23 on defense

In the wins: Gave up 89 rushing yards on average
In the losses: Gave up 138 rushing yards on average

Therefore, in order for the Seahawks to prevent Peyton Manning from winning his second Super Bowl, they need to run the ball for first downs, while limiting the record setting Broncos offense to turnovers and 3 & outs on defense. Good luck.

Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady is Upon Us

This Sunday, the biggest individual rivalry in professional sports repeats itself when Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The two hall of fame bound quarterbacks face off for the 15th time and fourth time in the playoffs.  In case you are not fed up with the non-stop coverage on ESPN, here are some different takes on the rivalry:

Here is a Sporcle quiz comparing their stats:

http://www.sporcle.com/games/klofton798/manning-vs-brady-stats

Here are some fun facts on the matchup:

• 6 of the last 7 Manning-Brady meetings have been decided by 7 points or less
• 7 of the last 12 Super Bowls have included either Tom Brady or Peyton Manning
• The last time the Patriots played a road playoff game? The 2006 AFC Championship Game against the Colts
• Peyton Manning & Tom Brady's combined age of 74.3 is the oldest ever between opposing starting QBs in a Conference Championship Game
• Manning and Brady will be the 1st QBs to meet in playoff games 10 seasons apart in the Super Bowl era (2003 & 2013 AFC Championship games).

Both Manning and Brady have appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated over a dozen times:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Meanwhile, as pitchmen, they are completely different as this article details. Brady is married to a supermodel wife and endorses Ugg boots and Movado watches, while Manning and his “aww shucks” “down to earth” personality pitches Papa John’s and Mastercard.

I know what I’ll be watching at 3pm on Sunday… with my Papa John’s pizza.

The Caps Specialize At Being Uneven

After crushing the Islanders 6-2 the other night, the Capitals are now the NHL leader in two important categories, Power Play Percentage and Penalty Killing Percentage.  The league average for scoring when you are in the power play advantage is 18%, which Washington is leading at 28%. Looking the other way, DC leads the NHL in preventing opponents from scoring on the advantage at 8%, with the same 18% league average.  

Controlling these key moments in the game correlates into victories, as the top ten power play % teams and 8 of the top 10 penalty killing teams currently have winning records. Only once in the past 8 seasons has a team even finished in the top three in both categories at the end of the year, and that team had the best record in the league and made the Cup Finals.

Then why are the Caps only 8-7? Well, when playing at even numbers, they are below average.  Washington has outscored opponents for the season 50-42, but when at even strength they are being outscored 37-33. They are the only team in the NHL with that oddity.

DC may be relying too much on the power play since 35% of their goals are from being up a man, third highest rank in the NHL, when the average is 23%. Keep in mind that teams only average 4 power plays or 8 penalty minutes per a 60 minute game. This means that the Caps are only in each of these situations 12% of the time on the ice, while stinking up the other 76%. How about some more 5 on 5 drills at practice, coach?

2-0 NFL Teams vs. 0-2 Teams

After two weeks of the NFL season, there are eight teams that are 2-0 and eight teams that are 0-2.  I have seen the statistic several times today stating that 63% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs, while only 12% of 0-2 teams do. Now that 12% of the season is already done, which of the 2-0 teams should start printing out playoff tickets and which of the 0-2 teams should start working on their draft board?

First take a look at the eight teams that are off to a fast start, in multiple categories:

Since statistically only 63%, or 5 of these 8 will make the playoffs, which ones will advance? What is the best indicator of team success? The easiest trend is if the team made the playoffs last year, then they should make it again. However, half the teams on this list did not make it last year. Maybe last year was a fluke and the five year records will be a better predictor. Well Teams D and B have great percentages, while C and H have had several losing seasons recently. If “defense wins championships”, then certainly Teams C and H are in since they are among the tops in defensive yards and points allowed. The NFL is an offensive league now though, so the top offenses of Teams F and G are strong bets to make the playoffs. Game by game, winning the turnover battle is key, therefore Team C and H are starting the season off well, while Team A, B, and F need some work to do. After looking at these metrics overall, Teams C and G are playoff bound, while Teams A, B, and E will be the 3 in the 37% that do not make it.

Now for the teams on the other end of the spectrum, which started off 0-2:









Looking at the same metrics as before, Teams I and K made the playoffs last year and have above average scoring offenses, so maybe they can turn their seasons around. Team L and M are even in the turnover battle, and have above average scoring defenses. Teams J and O have great records in the past five years, so maybe they just got off to a rough start this season. Looking at the rankings overall, it looks like Team L has the best chance of being the one team to make the playoffs after a 0-2 start.

Here is the team key:



It’s not surprising that Seattle and Denver are the two best, but Chicago and New Orleans need more than history and fan base to get in. There is no guarantee Pittsburgh, NY Giants, or Washington are turning it around, while Tampa Bay’s defense and turnover margin can give their fans some hope.

Runningback’s Decline Not Just Due to Turning 30

In the world of fantasy football, there are many theories and clichés to predict a player’s rise and fall. The “third year receiver”, “handcuff” your runningback, and “avoid kickers and defenses” theories are common, and I have even written about the “30 year old RB wall” one previously. Further research goes beyond just the age of RB’s, but at carries and performance to predict their decline as well.

When looking runningback stats from the past 13 seasons, there are some interesting trends about the decline of a RB’s performance from year to year.  There are certain benchmarks signifying a good season that RB’s strive to meet year to year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 123 10 rushing touchdown seasons, but only 49 (40%) of those RB’s got at least 10 TD’s the next year.
2. Of the RB’s who were in the top #10 in scoring that year, only 47 (39%) were in the top #10 the following season.
3. 63 RB’s scored 150 fantasy points or more in a season, with only 21 (33%) reaching that mark the next year.
4. The 1,500 yard rushing mark has been eclipsed 51 times, but only repeated 13 times or 25%.

What does this mean for last year’s RB’s? Four RB’s had seasons last year that fit each of the criteria above, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, and Frank Gore.  Following the percentages above, only one or two of those RB’s will reach those benchmarks again.  Frank Gore has played seven full seasons and is already 30, and Lynch had never been over 1500 yards or 150 points before in his six year career, so they are good bets from that group to regress.

There is another factor to look at besides players peaking, which is the amount of carries. Runningbacks take a pounding carrying the ball throughout the season, and thus have shorter careers as compared to quarterbacks or wide receivers.  This wear and tear leads to decreasing point production the following year.

1. Since 2000, there have been 21 RB’s that carried the ball 370+ times in a season, and 19 (90%) of them had a decrease in points the next season for an average of 40% less points.
2. 34 RB’s with 350+ carries, with 28 (82%) decreasing an average of 36%.
3. 49 340+ carries, with 41 (84%) decreasing an average of 50%.
4. 104 300+ carries, with 73 (70%) decreasing an average of 48%.

As far as last year’s RB’s go, Foster and Peterson had 370+ carries, while Lynch had 340+ and Gore had 300+. Ray Rice had 340+ carries and met some of the earlier criteria as well. Two other RB’s got 300+ carries but were rookies or second year players, Doug Martin and Stevan Ridley.  Following the percentages, you would expect all of these RB’s, except the two young ones, to see a decrease in point totals next year.  

Therefore, when it comes to draft day, I would avoid some of these workhorses who are not likely to repeat their performances and opt for younger RB’s who are coming into their primes. 

Now It's Time to Panic for the Nats

Now that the Nationals have lost six in a row, it is officially time to panic in the nation’s capital. At this point last season, Washington was 20 games above .500, at 60-40. Now through 100 games this season, the Nat’s are four games below .500 with only a 48-52 record.  What happened to the team that was picked to make the World Series?

The Nationals' strength last year was the excellent pitching staff from top to bottom. Last season they were 1^st in the NL in ERA, opponent’s batting average, and walks/hits per inning. Now those numbers have slipped to 6^th, 7^th, and 5^th. These numbers are reflected in the bullpen as well, which went from 3^rd best to 8^th.  Even though the stats declined from last year, the numbers are still respectable, and indicative of a winning ballclub. What about the other factors in baseball?

In DC’s first place season last year, the team finished 4^th in batting average, 5^th in runs, and 6^th in on base percentage.  Now the Nationals’ bats have struggled to 13^th, 14^th, and 14^th out of the 15 NL teams in those respective categories.  They have not fared any better in the field as Washington fell from 4^th to 15^th in number of fielding errors and 2^nd to 15^th in fielding percentage.

Despite these numbers, teams find a way to win by cliche sports terms like lucky or clutch. Batters can be clutch when runners are in scoring position or when called to pinch hit. Last season they were 7^th and 1^st in batting average in those situations, but now 11^th and 12^th.  In close games, the team has faltered as well. They went from 27-21 in one run games and 13-7 in extra inning games last year to just 16-14 and 5-7 in those situations now.

                The reason the Nationals had such lofty expectations this season was that they either improved or returned each spot of their roster. The team has not seen major injuries, and is healthier overall compared to last season.  How could a team (not full of aging vets, but young rising stars) get worse without major injuries or key player movement?

                The answer? Mojo. Curses. Karma. Whatever you want to call it, but there is definitely something going on in the mental makeup of the players. It started in the last month of the regular season last year when Strasburg was cautiously benched due to his innings limit, starting the Strasburg curse. Then in one of the last home games of the year, winless Racing President Teddy Roosevelt finally won, creating the Teddy curse.  Now a mediocre president, Taft, joined the race, bringing mediocrity to the 4^th inning entertainment and possibly another curse.

On a more realistic note, one player change in the offseason might have an unforeseen mental impact as well. Goofball slugger Michael Morse brought humor to the clubhouse and broke up the tension last season with his antics, but was traded away in January. Now the pressure of meeting lofty expectations may be getting to the young team.  Perhaps the Nationals can overcome the statistic and curses to use the remaining 62 games to catch the injury-riddled Braves and win the division again.

Andrew Bynum to the Cavs is High Reward, Low Risk

Last night the Cleveland Cavaliers signed free agent center Andrew Bynum to a two-year incentive-laden deal for $24 million. It is a wise move for the team since it appears to be high reward for little risk.

The deal is full of incentives and low on guaranteed money because Bynum missed all of last season with a knee injury and has only played in 60% of the possible games in his career. The contract has a team option for the second year, meaning they can cut him without penalty after the first season if it does not pan out. This is not a spending spree type of move that hurts the salary cap, since the worst case scenario is only $6 million for one year. Meanwhile in comparison, free agents Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, and David West signed multi-year deals this year for at least $12 million a year.

It is a high reward move because two seasons ago the 25-year-old averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game.  The 7-footer was an All-Star and second team All-NBA selection that year.  If healthy, he plugs into a Cleveland front court that includes veteran Anderson Varejo, #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett, #4 pick two years ago Tristan Thompson, and All-Rookie selection Tyler Zeller. Meanwhile, the main core of the team is the young backcourt, led by All-Star 21-year-old point guard Kyrie Irving (above) and All-Rookie selection Dion Waiters. That is a talented eight man rotation with only Varejo being over 25 years old. Several blogs below have the Cavs making the playoffs and even the #5 seed now, if healthy. A big if.

This seems like a lot of optimism for a team that finished with the third worst record in the NBA last year.  However, in the past two months, Cleveland won the draft lottery, made a bold pick at #1, and picked up a former All-Star center on the cheap.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/22713400/how-signing-andrew-bynum-can-work-for-the-cavaliers

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1700246-best-case-worst-case-scenarios-for-andrew-bynum-era-in-cleveland

http://www.rantsports.com/nba/2013/07/10/andrew-bynum-makes-cleveland-cavaliers-an-instant-playoff-team/

Where’s the Love and Runs for Strasburg?

Last night, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg threw seven shutout innings, lowering his earned run average to 2.24 which is the 5th best in the National League. However, Washington did not score any runs either, and ended up losing the game 4-0. Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence this season, as Strasburg has received a major league low 2.44 runs per game from the offense, causing him to only have a 4-6 record.

With the All-Star game coming up, this lack of run support will hurt the ace’s chances to make the team.  Unfortunately win/loss record is a prominent, overrated statistic used to evaluate pitchers despite the reliance on outside factors.  If you were a manager choosing the NL pitchers, which three would you pick from the players below?

Pitcher A – Record of 10-3, team is 49-33 and is one of the most popular/successful teams
Pitcher B – Record of 9-4, 13-year veteran and former all-star
Pitcher C – Record of 9-6, team is 49-34 and is in first place
Pitcher D – Record of 4-6, team is playing .500 and under-achieving
Pitcher E – Record of 5-4, on a team with the worst record and attendance in the NL
Pitcher F – Record of 5-6, team is 11 games below .500 and in fourth place.

Clearly managers, using the antiquated notion of helping your team win is the same as a win/loss record, would choose pitchers A, B, and C. Meanwhile, there are plenty of other stats to choose from to evaluate pitchers, including earned run average (ERA), opponents batting average (BAA), and walks/hits per innings pitched (WHIP). Having read MoneyBall recently, I have even more profound appreciation for more efficient and revealing stats, like wins above replacement (WAR) and defense-independent ERA (DIPS).  Now look how the pitchers above rank using the five metrics mentioned:

Pitcher A – ERA of 3.75 (31st in the NL out of 32 qualifying pitchers), 25th in WAR, 22nd in WHIP
Pitcher B – Dead last in DIPS, WAR, and WHIP, 30th in ERA
Pitcher C – Not in the top 26 in any category.
Pitcher D – 5th in ERA, top 10 in three other categories
Pitcher E – 3rd in BAA, top 11 in three others
Pitcher F – 4th in BAA, top 13 in three others

It would now make more sense to choose pitchers D, E, and F to the All-Star game using these stats.  When looking at the averages of all these rankings, these three pitchers would rank in the top 10 overall in the NL, worthy of one of the nine starting pitcher spots on the team. Meanwhile pitchers A, B, and C are ranked 22nd, 31st, and 32nd.

Will pitchers D (Strasburg), E, and F make the team? We will find out Saturday when the rosters are revealed.

UVa Men’s Tennis Won the NCAA Title

After years of getting painstakingly close to a title, the UVa Men’s tennis team finally won its first championship today in dramatic fashion.  With the title match tied 3-3 against UCLA, the Wahoos were down to their final point in the third and final set, when sophomore Mitchell Frank rallied to win four straight games to clinch the title. The victory was Virginia’s 30^th to cap off an undefeated season.  Here are some quick stats on the Cavaliers historic season and recent run of dominance.

• During the season, they won their 100^th consecutive ACC match.
• Their combined match record was 160-22.
• This is only the third match of the season that the opponent even got three match wins
• This was their third straight title game appearance, falling to USC the previous two times
• In the past eight seasons, UVa has a combined team record of 256-13 for a .952 winning percentage.
• This gives Virginia it’s 20^th national title overall, fourth most in the ACC.

Time to get a new t-shirt. 

Is it Time to Panic for the Nats?

After getting swept by the Cardinals this afternoon, is it time to panic for the Washington Nationals? Granted it is still only April, but the defending NL East champions only scored four runs in the three game home series. Here are some quick stats and trends that need to change if DC is going to live up to this year’s lofty expectations: 

• They have lost four straight and have gone 3-9 in the past 12
• They are 8-1 against the Marlins and White Sox (who are a combined 12-28), but 2-10 against the rest of the league
• They are below .500 now, which they avoided all last season
• They are already 5 games back of Atlanta and New York in the division
• They are 23^rd in the MLB in batting average, 20^th in runs, and 22^nd in on base % (after being 9th, 10^th, 12^th last year)
• They are 17^th in era, 21^st in opponent batting average, and 13^th in quality starts (2^nd, 2^nd, 5^th last year)
• They are worst in the league in errors and second to last in fielding % (8^th and 8^th last year)
• Meanwhile only Bryce Harper, the 20 year old, has produced at the plate, leading the team in average, hits, home runs, RBI’s, and total bases
• On the mound, Stephen Strasburg is 1-4 and Gio Gonzalez has a 5.85 era in four starts

On the bright side, if the Caps have taught us anything, it is that DC teams can recover from a rough start. 

UVa Spring Sports Update

Now that the college basketball season is complete, college spring sports come to the forefront. Luckily two of UVa’s programs are in the midst of amazing seasons.

The men’s tennis is team is ranked #1 and is still undefeated at 17-0. The Cavaliers have won 99 consecutive ACC matchups and are 114-4 in the past 4 seasons. Unfortunately, three of those losses are to USC in the NCAA playoffs, but maybe this is the Hoos’ year since they defeated the Trojans in the indoor tournament in February.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s baseball team is currently ranked #4 in the nation and has a record of 30-3. The Cavaliers have won all of their series's on the season and are #5 in the country in runs, #13 in ERA and #20 in batting average. We will see how this young team fares against #19 GT,  #6 FSU, and #1 UNC later in the season.

I hope these incredible seasons continue into a successful playoff run in the summer.

Shhhh, The Caps Are Back

After starting 2-8-1, the Capitals have quietly surged back into first place in the division and the playoff hunt. Washington has won five straight and 9 of 11 to climb to atop of the Southeast Division and the #3 seed. It also helps that the three worst teams in the conference are in the division and the Caps would be the 7th seed overall in the playoffs or 8th in the Western conference.

The key to the resurgence has been Alex Ovechkin’s return to MVP form as well. The team captain and leader has scored eight goals in the past five games and is tied for the lead for goals in the NHL. After only scoring two goals in his first ten games, the Great 8 has 20 points in the past 11 games.

Overall the team has turned things around from the beginning of the year. Earlier they were only scoring 2.3 goals a game, now they are putting it in the net 3.7 times, and instead of giving up 3.6 goals a game, the keepers are down to 2.2 a game.  The goalies have improved their save percentage from 88% to 92% and the defense has limited their penalties to 2.3 a game, down from 4.7 earlier.

Maybe the team has finally bought into new coach Adam Oates’s system and these playoffs will be better than the bitter disappointments in previous years.  We shall see…

Experts and Trends on NCAA Tourny Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked and whether to follow the pack or be unique on your picks is up to you.

Championship

• 75% of the experts chose Louisville to win the entire thing (Even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Kansas was the only #1 seed not picked

Runner Up

• 7 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% Miami highest
• 30% have Louisville beating Miami

Final Four

• 95% picked Louisville to reach the Final Four (Again even more than picked Kentucky last year)
• Only 25% picked #1 Kansas, while 40% picked #2 Ohio St. out of the West Region
• The South region is the trickiest with five teams getting 15% of the picks or better
• #1 Indiana 45%, #2 Miami 45% in what looks an entertaining East regional Final
• Sorry Sparty, MSU was the only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 15% #5 VCU was the only non-top #4 seed to be picked

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets picked Louisville in the Elite Eight, boring
• Duke and MSU are split 50/50
• Only 40% Kansas, lowest #1 seed
• Miami 85%, highest #2 seed
• Florida 45% as a #3 seed, while only 5% for Marquette

Sweet Sixteen

• #1 and #2 seeds got 85% or higher
• All 20 experts picked #3 MSU to make the Sweet 16, stunning
• Meanwhile #3 Marquette only got 35%, against Butler, Bucknell or Davidson
• #4 Kansas St 25% is the huge underdog against #5 Wisconsin at 70%
• #5 VCU 55% vs. #4 UMich 45% looks like a great game

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, Kansas is a good choice to falter. 
• Since 54% of #2 seeds do not make the Elite 8 either, Duke and Georgetown have the toughest opponents.
• Only 52% of #3 seeds make it out of the first two rounds, so pick against Marquette as a #3 seed to continue this trend. 
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 like VCU or Wisconsin over a #4 which is a toss-up game. 
• Since only 1 one time out of 32 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, Kansas and Gonzaga look like most vulnerable. 

Picking your NCAA Tourny Bracket

Over the past couple years, I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 27 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round: 

• #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 36% of the time (last year it was 50% with #12 VCU and #12 South Florida pulling off the upsets.) 
• 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Michigan went home early last year) 
• Meanwhile only 13% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

 In the second round: 

• Only 11% of #1 seeds were upset 
• Meanwhile 39% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#2 Duke and #2 Missouri were upset by the #15 last year, not even getting to the #7/#10) 
• Only 11% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

 Sweet 16 round: 

• 73% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was 75% last year with only MSU faltering) 
• On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

 Elite Eight round: 

• Only one time in 32 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year) 
• 39% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (Only one #1 seed made it last year) 
• #2 seeds make it 24% of the time (Two #2 seeds made it last year)

If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 9 (#1, #2, #2, #4) was about average).

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. 

HellUVa Week for Virginia Sports

Last night UVa earned a marquee win over #3 Duke 73-68 on national TV essentially clinching a spot in the big dance. Here are some of the key stats:

• The last time the Cavaliers beat a top 5 team was exactly 11 years ago, against #3 Duke.
• Duke never had the lead.
• The Blue Devils only had one offensive rebound after averaging 10 for the season.
• Joe Harris had a career high 36 points, the most for any player against Duke since 2006, and the most in the ACC this season.
• Harris is now 2^nd in the ACC in scoring, 3^rd in FG%, 3^rd in 3PT FG%, and 4^th in FT%, and is in consideration for ACC Player of the Year and has his own Twitter feed pushing for it https://twitter.com/JoeHarrisACCPOY
• This picture is in consideration for picture of the year as well.
• Akil Mitchell also had a great game with 19 points (2^nd highest this year) and 12 rebounds (2^nd highest as well).
• UVA is now 10-5 in the ACC, with 4 top 50 RPI wins, greatly improving their NCAA tournament selection chances.

Meanwhile Virginia’s men’s spring sports are undefeated so far.  #19 Baseball has started off 8-0 with a combined score of 84-19. #1 Tennis is 6-0, including the Indoor Championship against arch-rival USC.  #6 Lacrosse is 4-0, scoring a combined 62-34, with a huge matchup tonight against Syracuse. Not to be outdone, the Football team got a big boost, when they got a commitment from the #4 ranked recruit in the country as well.  Not to put too much stock in these things, but from 2002-2008 29 of the 35 top 5 rated recruits went on to become NFL starters.

Great week to be a Wahoo Fan!