Redskins and Cowboys Renew the Greatest Rivalry in the NFL

This Sunday, on national primetime TV, the NFL regular season concludes with the biggest rivalry in the league with the NFC East title on the line. In a win or go home game, the 8-7 Dallas Cowboys face off against the 9-6 Washington Redskins, who are riding a six game win streak. The winner hosts a playoff game next week, while the loser watches the postseason from home.

DC has never hosted this rivalry game with as much on the line before. The cheapest tickets on Stub Hub start at $200 and I have been wearing my sweet t-shirt all week. Not only did Sports Illustrated vote it the biggest rivalry in the NFL, but the two clubs are the most valuable in the league and top five in the world. The Cowboys were “America’s Team” but after 15 years since their last Super Bowl, the country has grown tiresome of the hype, as witnessed by the map below of who viewers want to win the game:

Will rookie sensation RGIII lead the Redskins to their first division title since 1999 or will Tony Romo avenge his recent end of season struggles? Will two of the top five offenses in the league put on a shootout or will the nerves and the moment get to the teams in a low scoring grudge match? I cannot wait for Sunday Night!

Browns and Redskins Fighting for the Playoffs?

This week, my two favorite NFL teams square off for the first time in four years at a crucial time in the season. Being in separate conferences, the Redskins and Browns rarely face each other. The last time they played each other was back in October 2008 as Washington hosted Cleveland in a 14-11 win while I sat in the nosebleeds. This Sunday, they meet both still in playoff contention this late for the first time in several seasons.

The main story line this week will be the health of rookie of the year/MVP candidate RG3, but the Redskins and Browns also sport several other key rookies. Washington’s Alfred Morris has 1,228 rushing yards, kicker Kai Forbath is 14 of 14 on FGs so far, while backup QB Kirk Cousins won the game for Washington last week. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s rookie trio of Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson and Josh Morgan are the first rookie QB, RB, and WR combo to start for a team since 1970. Weeden has the most wins for a rookie in team history, Richardson has the most touchdowns for a rookie, even surpassing Jim Brown, while Gordon leads NFL rookies in yardage.

Here are some other quick facts for the match-up: 

• The Redskins have won four straight for the first time since 2008, including three in a row against NFC East rivals
• The Browns have won three straight for the first time in three seasons
• Washington is #5 and #7 in offensive yardage and points in the NFL
• Cleveland unfortunately lost three games by four points or less, but is #9 in defensive scoring
• The Browns and Redskins are +8 and +12 in turnover margin, both top ten in the league
• Washington’s six 30+ point games so far is their most in a season in 16 years
• Cleveland’s 23 point victory last week was their largest margin in nine seasons

Neither team has been in the playoffs in the past four seasons, but they both are still mathematically alive, and the winner of this game will be one step closer. 

RGIII for MVP

Could the Washington Redskins new superstar rookie actually be in the running for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award? Before you entirely scoff at the notion, think about what type of player should win the award? Is it the best player on the team with the best record, the one with the best stats, or the player who is the most valuable to their team’s success?

Clearly, the biggest critique of Robert Griffin being considered the league’s MVP at this point in the season would be the Redskins’ losing record. However, given DC’s defense and schedule so far, RGIII should not be penalized for their 3-4 record. Washington’s defense is currently ranked 29^th in yards allowed per game, 28^th in scoring, and dead last in passing yards. All four of their losses were decided within the last two minutes of the game and by seven points or less.  Their last three games were against teams with a combined record of 16-4.  There have been instances in the past where the MVP came from a losing team or a pitcher won a Cy Young award with a losing record due to a lack of run support, so the feat has some precedent.

Maybe in this fantasy football/videogame driven era of the NFL, all the MVP voters would care about would be numbers and statistics. Well, Griffin is third in the NFL in passer rating, ahead of the likes of Brady and Brees. He is first in yards per attempt and at 70.4% has the highest completion percentage of any quarterback in the league. His mere three interceptions are also tied for fewest in the league.  With RGIII, the attention is obviously focused on his running abilities as well. He is currently 12^th in the entire league in rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. His 468 rushing yards are more than the Saints and Raiders have as a team and his six rushing TD’s are more than 24 entire teams.  In fact he is leading the NFL in yards per rush and yards per pass attempt, the first player in history to do so. (While Cam Newton and Michael Vick have also recently had outstanding dual threat seasons, Newton was 15^th in passer rating last year while Vick’s career year in 2010 was still only 10^th in the league in completion %.)

Those impressive stats mean even more to the team, illustrating his immense value. His 2,069 combined yards account for 73% of the Redskin’s total offense and he has had a hand in 13 of the 19 offensive touchdowns. DC’s offense is ranked sixth in scoring per game, fifth in overall yards, and first in rushing yards. The last time they finished the season ranked this high in these categories was 13 seasons ago. Amazingly, the Redskins have scored 30 points or more three times already this season, which is the same amount of times they achieved that in the past four entire seasons combined.

           Given all his numbers and value to the team, RG3 should not lose out in an early MVP race to similar rated quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brady and Brees, who already have hardware and only have a combined record of 16-16 themselves anyways. 

Miami of Ohio Football Adventure II

This past Labor Day weekend, my family and I had the opportunity to see my only cousin play D-1 football in person with 105,000 other fans at Ohio State Stadium in Columbus.  My cousin, Brad Bednar, is a four year starter on the Miami of Ohio Redhawks offensive line. He was even profiled in a Northern Ohio News-Herald article last week.   

Before the game, the famed Ohio State Marching Band took to the field for their famous Script Ohio:

Once the game started the Redhawks dominated the first quarter, racking up a 160-40 yard advantage over the heavily favored and nationally ranked Buckeyes. However, despite moving into the Ohio State redzone twice, Miami only came away with a field goal due to two key drops. Still, silencing the large home opener crowd by taking a lead was pretty sweet:

 

I do not need to go into the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th quarters, but seeing the star after the game was worth the wait:

NFL Rookie Quarterback Party!

This week, Russell Wilson, the rookie quarterback for Seattle, was named the Week 1 starter for the Seahawks. He joins Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, and Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden as rookie signal callers starting the season opener. That means an astounding 16% of NFL teams are going into the season with their most important position never having taken a NFL snap.

Since the historic Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf draft back in 1998, there have only been 13 rookie quarterbacks to start the season opener, compared to five just this year alone. None of those previous 14 seasons had more than two rookies starting in Week 1. During this time frame, 39 QB’s were taken in the first round and only 11 started the opener, or 28%, compared to five of the first six QB’s drafted this year. Meanwhile some star quarterbacks held the clipboard their entire rookie seasons, like Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers.

How did these brave young passers fare? Well, not surprisingly, they struggled. Of the 13 rookies who started the openers, only 5 or 38% of them had winning records for the season; 38% threw over 3000 yards, 23% threw more TD’s than INT’s, and only 15% had more than 20 TD’s. Unfortunately resting the prized QB does not seem to help either. Of the 37 rookies who started at least five games, only 37% had more TD’s than INT’s, 24% had winning records, 18% threw over 3000 yards, and only 10% had more than 20 TD’s.

Does this mean teams should shelter their face of the franchise to the film room all season instead? Not necessarily.  Some rookies clearly struggled and never recovered, like Leaf (3-7, 2 TD, 15 INT), Akili Smith (1-5, 2 TD, 6 INT), Jimmy Clausen (1-11, 3 TD, 9 INT) and David Carr (4-12, 9 TD, 15 INT). Meanwhile some were able to grow from their difficult rookie seasons like Eli Manning (1-6, 6 TD, 9 INT), Michael Vick (1-4, 2 TD, 3 INT) and Matt Stafford (2-8, 13 TD, 20 INT). Not all rookies stumbled out of the gate though as evidenced by Matt Ryan (11-6, 18 TD, 13 INT), Big Ben (14-2, 20 TD, 16 INT) and Joe Flacco (13-6, 15 TD, 15 INT).  But beware the early successes as well since some rookies careers did not take off after enjoying a solid rookie season like Jason Campbell (10 TD, 6 INT), Shaun King (5-2, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Vince Young (8-6).

Even though rookie quarterbacks are such a mixed bag, five teams are resting their future on them due to the ever shifting passing oriented dominance of the NFL.  Of the nine signal callers drafted in the past two seasons that started, only two of them did not throw more TDs than INTs and those two (McCoy and Clausen) have already had two 1^st round draft picks take their place. Meanwhile last year, Andy Dalton (9-7, 20 TD, 13 INT) lead his team to the playoffs and Cam Newton (4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 14 rushing TDs) broke all kinds of records.

With opening weekend only a week away, we will soon find out whether these rookie quarterbacks will make their coaches and GM’s geniuses or unemployed.  

National's Dream Season Continues

After Washington went up two touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, er, Giants last night, I felt it was time to take a look at how well this first place team is doing in the dog days of summer. Not only does Washington have the best record in the league and a 5 game lead in their division, but they are now atop ESPN’s power rankings for the first time.

All season the team has been carried by their pitching, and here are some of their stats: 

• #1 in team ERA in the Majors, #1 in opponent batting average, #1 in WHIP, #3 in strikeouts
• Four of DC’s five starters are in the top #14 in ERA in the NL, all five in the top #22
• Four in the top #12 in WHIP
• All five in the top #15 in opponent batting average

It’s not all pitching either. Since the All-Star break, the Nationals are:

• #1 in runs, hits, and total bases in the Majors
• #2 in RBI
• #4 in batting average

But of course all the naysayers will look to the impending resting of Stephen Strasburg as the downfall of this team that will end their great season. However, keep in mind, starters only pitch every five games and the first round of the playoffs are best out of five when you only need three pitchers anyways. Look at the stats of the National's rotation below. 

• A) 15-6, 3.29 ERA, 158 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, .210 Opponents Batting Average
• B) 9-6,   2.35 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.06 WHIP, .238   
• C) 6-5,   3.18 ERA, 74 Ks, 1.16 WHIP, .236
• D) 13-5, 2.90 ERA, 166 Ks, 1.12 WHIP, .226
• E) 7-7,   3.74 ERA, 110 Ks, 1.21 WHIP, .239

Which one is the one getting benched that will ruin our season? If you were in a playoff hunt against the Nat’s, which one would you want to be shut down?  The fact that Washington’s rotation is having such a great season and is that deep lets me believe that this remarkable season will continue deep into the fall.

In Fantasy Football, Quarterbacks are now a Dime a Dozen

Now that the preseason of the NFL has begun, it is a perfect time to start researching for your Fantasy Football drafts at the end of the month.  For the first time in years, I am also in a seasonal draft format in addition to the keeper/dynasty league. Seasonal drafts require totally different strategies and research.  

The key to these leagues is when to draft each position. Traditionally, the first two rounds are reserved for running backs with a couple star quarterbacks and wide receivers sprinkled in. Then after locking up your top two RBs, you would move on to QB and WR before drafting kickers and defenses in the later rounds. However, the recent trends of RBs by committee and the pass happy NFL could force a change in this routine. In fact, four of the top six passing yard seasons in NFL history were last season. Meanwhile, only two RBs carried more than 300 times for over 1300 yards last season, compared to ten times just five seasons ago.  Does this mean QBs are more valuable and therefore should be drafted earlier while RBs can slide to later rounds? Not necessarily.

Most leagues award six or four points to TDs thrown by a QB, compared to six for a regular TD by a RB or WR. Obviously QBs are going to be more heavily weighted since the top QBs score 40+ TDs a year while the top RBs/WRs get 15 TDs.  That also means that average QBs outscore the top position players as well. Of the top 25 scorers last year, 19 were quarterbacks.  Alex Smith (238 points) and Andy Dalton (248) scored roughly the same amount as top RBs LeSean McCoy (266) and Arian Foster (239). Even though only 12 QBs will be starting in FFL week to week, the lowest ranked one will still roughly throw 4,000 yards and 20 TDs. This means that QBs are less valuable than ever before.

The current draft rankings reflect this devaluing of the QB position.  Only four of the top 21 players are QBs, and ten of the top 71. That means owners are still drafting their starting QB in rounds 6-8 with players like Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Matt Schaub. Meanwhile the top 24 RBs and WRs, or two each per team, are gone by round 6. Since the record books are flying out the window, owners know QBs can be drafted with a high value later on.

If you project the scoring, you can see how scarce RBs and other positions are compared to QBs. The average projected point totals by position in round 6 mentioned above are 340 QB, 148 RB and 135 WR. There is a 45% drop off in points between the RBs and WRs in the 1^st round to the 7^th round compared to just a 30% drop for QBs. Meanwhile the difference between the top kicker and the 15^th kicker and the top defense and 10^th defense is only 20 points, hence why those two positions are usually drafted dead last. Therefore you still need to grab a top RB early since the only ones left after the top 24 are the second fiddles in the committee (Jonathon Stewart, Peyton Hillis, CJ Spiller, Michael Bush, etc).

Despite all the gaudy record-breaking numbers last year, in fantasy football, the QB is still not the glamour position, since you can still make the title game with Colt McCoy or Rex Grossman as your QB as was the case in our league last year. 

Hoo's Going to London

As the Olympics draw near at the end of the month, I found even more reasons to root for the red, white, and blue. The following UVa athletes will be competing for gold in London:

• Lauren Perdue, Swimming, 4x200 Freestyle Relay
• Matt McLean, Swimming, 4x200 Freestyle Relay
• Paige Selenski, Field Hockey
• Michelle Vittese, Field Hockey
• Becky Saurbrunn, Soccer
• Will Coleman, Equestrian

Meanwhile, these fellow Hoo’s will be representing different countries, but still look out for them as they follow their flag into Olympic Stadium.

• Somdev Devvarman, India, Tennis
• Katya Bachrouche, Lebanon, Swimming, 800 Freestyle
• David Karasek, Switzerland, Swimming, 200 Individual Medley
• Yannick Kaeser, Switzerland, Swimming, 200 Breaststroke

U! S! A! Go Hoos! Go!

Nat's at the All-Star Break

Now that the MLB season is at the All Star break, here is a look at some nuggets about the National’s much publicized successful season so far:

• DC has the best record in the NL at the All-Star break for first time since 1933
• The franchise has four players in the All-Star Game for the first time since 1994
• TV ratings are up 50%, 28% increase in attendance, “likes” on Facebook are up 30 percent, and Twitter followers are up 139 percent
• Bryce Harper became the youngest position player All Star ever
• The Nat’s pitching staff has the best ERA in the majors, best opponents batting average, best walk/hit to inning ratio, and fifth most strikeouts
• Home attendance is in the top half of the league, where they haven’t finished since 2005
• They’ve had all this success while battling injuries. Ryan Zimmerman missed 14 of 83 games, while LF Michael Morse missed 50. RF Jayson Werth has missed 56, but will be back in August as well as closer Drew Storen who has not pitched a game yet. Catcher Wilson Ramos only played in 25 games before going out for the year. That’s 24% of the ideal starting lineup starts missed from a first place team. 

Let's hope the Nationals keep this up instead of choking like in 2005 or the MLB striking like in 1994.

Imagine if the Nat's Were Slightly Healthier

Imagine if Drew Storen, Jayson Werth, and Michael Morse were healthy for the Washington Nationals.

Storen's replacement, Henry Rodriquez, has blown three saves already, which resulted in losses.  Storen only blew five out of 48 last year and only one that resulted in a loss. Imagine if he is healthy and saves those three games, or at least does not turn them into losses. The Nationals would then have a 29-14 record, second best in baseball.

Werth was batting .276 when he was injured, good for second on the team in April. Morse was batting .303, with 31 hrs and 95 rbis last year. Their replacements Bernadina, Ankiel, and Nady are batting a combined .202 this year. Washington has lost eight games by one run or less so far this year. If those two batters provided enough offense to win just four of those eight games, then their record would be 33-10, best in the majors by three games. That winning percentage would be .767, which projects out to 124 wins for the season, eight more than the all time record.

Needless to say, the Nat's would been pretty sweet if healthier.

P.S. Storen and Morse will be back in early June, Werth in August. Watch out MLB!

What are the Browns' Draft Options?

The Browns have the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and since the first three picks are practically already signed, all eyes are on Cleveland. This is the fourth draft in a row the Browns are picking in the top seven, and tenth time this high in the 14 drafts since their return.  What have they done with all these high picks? Only one All-Pro and 13 busts. Outside of Joe Thomas, only three drafted Browns have made one Pro Bowl and just once each. That is three combined pro bowl seasons from 106 of 107 draft selections.

With this history of futility, who are the Browns going to erroneously pick this year? This website compiles all the mock drafts performed across the internet and of the 212 most recent ones, 76% choose Trent Richardson, 10% Justin Blackmon, and 8% for Ryan Tannehill. Here are the breakdowns for each choice:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama:

Pros: The Crimson Tide runner is a bruising back that has pass catching and protection skills as well. He is considered the most complete back since Adrian Peterson five years ago. Richardson will energize an offense that faces three AFC North teams which each made the playoffs with top 7 defenses specializing on stopping the run.

Cons:  Running backs have a very short shelf life and with the increasing use of committee backfields, #4 overall is high for a back. You can easily get a good running back later in the draft, since the difference between the fifth best back and 25^th best is not as great as other positions drafted this high.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State:

Pros: The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner would be a much needed explosive target for Colt McCoy. The Browns lead the league in drops last year and pairing him with Greg Little would open up the offense.

Cons: Considering all the holes on the Browns roster, drafting a player who only touches the ball a half dozen times a game at fourth overall will not be a great value.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M:

Pros: The Aggie quarterback shot up the draft board after his pro day and could be the franchise passer the Browns need to compete with Flacco, Dalton, and Big Ben.

Cons: The pick would be a desperate move for a franchise grasping for a QB after Luck and Griffin are taken. Tannehill has only played 19 games at quarterback after playing WR for the Aggies.

Trade down:

Pros: The Browns need players, not a player. They lost their top running back and right tackle to free agency and lack a franchise QB and #1 caliber WR on the 29^th ranked offense. Their OLB will be suspended for bounty hunting and need improvement at DE, FS, and #2 CB. They can pass on Blackmon and get WR Floyd at #15, avoid Richardson and get RB Martin at #37, or ignore project Tannehill and get QB Weeden at #44.  They could even trade down to bolster the right side of the line with G David DeCastro.

Cons: Cleveland already has 13 picks this year and what is the point of drafting multiple later busts instead of one at #4. They will not be able to fix everything this year, and can pair Blackmon or Richardson with QB Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.

I believe that the Browns should trade down since they need all the help they can get and only RG3 and Luck are difference makers in this draft.

Nationals Winning Early

I know it’s early in the season, but the Nationals:

• Have a record of 9-3
• Are in first place in the NL East
• Have the third best record in the majors
• Rank fifth in the NL in batting average and third in on base percentage
• Lead the MLB in ERA at 1.91, 19% better than the second best team
• Lead the majors with 117 strikeouts, prompting me to get a sweet “K Street” T Shirt
• Lead the MLB in opponents’ batting average at .191
• Starting rotation has gone 5-1 with a MLB leading 1.69 ERA, 31% better than 2^nd place
• Face the 4-7 Astros, 5-6 Marlins, and 3-9 Padres for the next 8 games
• Have not been this many games above .500 since September 2005.

Nationals Opening Day with Expectations

With Opening Day just hours away, the Washington Nationals will start a season with high expectations for once. Here are a few of the reasons why there are high hopes in DC for this season:

• The Nat’s finished last season just one game below .500, their best record since 2005, going 14-4 to finish the year.
• Phenom pitcher Stephan Strasburg returns for a full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• Over the winter break, DC traded four of its top prospects (from Baseball America’s #1 farm system) for All Star pitcher Gio Gonzalez. The 26-year-old has won 15+ games the past two seasons and is slotted as the #2 pitcher.
• 2010 1^st overall draft pick Bryce Harper will start in the minors, but might be brought up in the summer to fill in the centerfield slot. The 19-year-old slugger could provide a boost to the lineup, especially if they are in a playoff hunt.
• Davey Johnson returns for a full season as the manager of a club in need of an experienced leader. The World Series winning skipper has won over 1,100 games with a .564 winning percentage.
• $126 Million Dollar outfielder Jayson Werth has nowhere to go but up this season, after only batting .232 with 20 homeruns last year.
• Lastly, MLB changed the playoff rules this year, allowing for an extra wild card team. Therefore, the Nationals can make the playoffs even in the stacked NL East.

All these factors create optimism in DC and have been noticed around the league. Experts from ESPN made predictions for the upcoming season, and 15 of the 49 picked the Nat’s to make the playoffs. Some even have them making the World Series. This is all just talk for now, but it is encouraging to have optimism for a team that has not had a winning record since being in Montreal.

Experts and Trends on NCAA Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked. Whether to follow the pack or be unique with your own picks is up to you.

Championship

• 70% of the experts chose Kentucky to win the entire thing

Runner Up

• 8 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% UNC highest
• 30% have Kentucky over UNC

Final Four

• 90% picked Kentucky to reach the Final Four
• Only 20% picked #1 MSU, while 50% picked #2 Missouri out of the West Region
• #2 Kansas 50%, #1 UNC 45% from Midwest region
• 0% Georgetown, only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 30% FSU, highest #3 seed, and will increase with Syracuse suspension, #2 OSU only 20%

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets had Kentucky in the Elite Eight
• 60% #3 Baylor, only 25% #2 Duke
• Only 60% MSU, lowest #1 seed
• Kansas 80%, highest #2 seed
• FSU 55%, OSU 45%, no others picked to meet there

Sweet Sixteen

• 3 #1 seeds got 95% or higher, except MSU, which 20% picked to be upset by #8 Memphis
• 3 #2 seeds got 85% or higher, except Duke, which 25% picked #10 Xavier or #7 ND
• FSU and Baylor strongest #3 seeds with 90% and 85%
• Georgetown and Marquette weakest #3 at only 55% and 65%
• #6 Murray State 35% over #3 Marquette
• 25% #11 NC State or 20% #6 San Diego over Georgetown
• #5 Vanderbilt 55%, #4 Wisconsin 45%, essentially a toss up
• Good luck guessing between #5 Wichita St 50%, #4 Indiana 30%, #12 VCU 20%
• Or these #4 Louisville 40%, #5 New Mexico 30%, #12 Long Beach 25%

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, MSU is a good choice to falter.
• Since 37% of #2 seeds are upset in the 2^nd round, Duke is the trendy pick to go down.
• Only 13% of the time does a region go #1, #2, #3, #4, so pick against Georgetown as a #3 seed to continue this trend.
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 over a #4 which is a toss-up, or a #12 like Long Beach or VCU.
• Since only 1 one time out of 31 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, MSU and Syracuse look like most vulnerable.

Picking your Final Four Bracket

For the last two years I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 26 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round:

· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 34% of the time (last year it was 25% with #12 Richmond beating #5 Vanderbilt)

· 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Louisville was upset last year)

· Meanwhile only 15% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

In the second round:

· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)

· Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (Has happened two years in a row though)

· Meanwhile 37% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#10 Florida State upset #2 Notre Dame last year)

· Only or 13% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:

· 71% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was only 25% last year when only #1 Kansas survived)

· On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

Elite Eight round:

· Only one time in 31 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)

· 42% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (No #1 seeds made it last year)

· #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (No #2 seeds made it last year as well)

· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10.5. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 26 (#3, #4, #8, #11) was more than double the average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. ESPN must have read this post earlier, since they have a version as well.