What are the Browns' Draft Options?

The Browns have the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and since the first three picks are practically already signed, all eyes are on Cleveland. This is the fourth draft in a row the Browns are picking in the top seven, and tenth time this high in the 14 drafts since their return.  What have they done with all these high picks? Only one All-Pro and 13 busts. Outside of Joe Thomas, only three drafted Browns have made one Pro Bowl and just once each. That is three combined pro bowl seasons from 106 of 107 draft selections.

With this history of futility, who are the Browns going to erroneously pick this year? This website compiles all the mock drafts performed across the internet and of the 212 most recent ones, 76% choose Trent Richardson, 10% Justin Blackmon, and 8% for Ryan Tannehill. Here are the breakdowns for each choice:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama:

Pros: The Crimson Tide runner is a bruising back that has pass catching and protection skills as well. He is considered the most complete back since Adrian Peterson five years ago. Richardson will energize an offense that faces three AFC North teams which each made the playoffs with top 7 defenses specializing on stopping the run.

Cons:  Running backs have a very short shelf life and with the increasing use of committee backfields, #4 overall is high for a back. You can easily get a good running back later in the draft, since the difference between the fifth best back and 25^th best is not as great as other positions drafted this high.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State:

Pros: The two-time Biletnikoff Award winner would be a much needed explosive target for Colt McCoy. The Browns lead the league in drops last year and pairing him with Greg Little would open up the offense.

Cons: Considering all the holes on the Browns roster, drafting a player who only touches the ball a half dozen times a game at fourth overall will not be a great value.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M:

Pros: The Aggie quarterback shot up the draft board after his pro day and could be the franchise passer the Browns need to compete with Flacco, Dalton, and Big Ben.

Cons: The pick would be a desperate move for a franchise grasping for a QB after Luck and Griffin are taken. Tannehill has only played 19 games at quarterback after playing WR for the Aggies.

Trade down:

Pros: The Browns need players, not a player. They lost their top running back and right tackle to free agency and lack a franchise QB and #1 caliber WR on the 29^th ranked offense. Their OLB will be suspended for bounty hunting and need improvement at DE, FS, and #2 CB. They can pass on Blackmon and get WR Floyd at #15, avoid Richardson and get RB Martin at #37, or ignore project Tannehill and get QB Weeden at #44.  They could even trade down to bolster the right side of the line with G David DeCastro.

Cons: Cleveland already has 13 picks this year and what is the point of drafting multiple later busts instead of one at #4. They will not be able to fix everything this year, and can pair Blackmon or Richardson with QB Matt Barkley in next year’s draft.

I believe that the Browns should trade down since they need all the help they can get and only RG3 and Luck are difference makers in this draft.

Nationals Winning Early

I know it’s early in the season, but the Nationals:

• Have a record of 9-3
• Are in first place in the NL East
• Have the third best record in the majors
• Rank fifth in the NL in batting average and third in on base percentage
• Lead the MLB in ERA at 1.91, 19% better than the second best team
• Lead the majors with 117 strikeouts, prompting me to get a sweet “K Street” T Shirt
• Lead the MLB in opponents’ batting average at .191
• Starting rotation has gone 5-1 with a MLB leading 1.69 ERA, 31% better than 2^nd place
• Face the 4-7 Astros, 5-6 Marlins, and 3-9 Padres for the next 8 games
• Have not been this many games above .500 since September 2005.

Nationals Opening Day with Expectations

With Opening Day just hours away, the Washington Nationals will start a season with high expectations for once. Here are a few of the reasons why there are high hopes in DC for this season:

• The Nat’s finished last season just one game below .500, their best record since 2005, going 14-4 to finish the year.
• Phenom pitcher Stephan Strasburg returns for a full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
• Over the winter break, DC traded four of its top prospects (from Baseball America’s #1 farm system) for All Star pitcher Gio Gonzalez. The 26-year-old has won 15+ games the past two seasons and is slotted as the #2 pitcher.
• 2010 1^st overall draft pick Bryce Harper will start in the minors, but might be brought up in the summer to fill in the centerfield slot. The 19-year-old slugger could provide a boost to the lineup, especially if they are in a playoff hunt.
• Davey Johnson returns for a full season as the manager of a club in need of an experienced leader. The World Series winning skipper has won over 1,100 games with a .564 winning percentage.
• $126 Million Dollar outfielder Jayson Werth has nowhere to go but up this season, after only batting .232 with 20 homeruns last year.
• Lastly, MLB changed the playoff rules this year, allowing for an extra wild card team. Therefore, the Nationals can make the playoffs even in the stacked NL East.

All these factors create optimism in DC and have been noticed around the league. Experts from ESPN made predictions for the upcoming season, and 15 of the 49 picked the Nat’s to make the playoffs. Some even have them making the World Series. This is all just talk for now, but it is encouraging to have optimism for a team that has not had a winning record since being in Montreal.

Experts and Trends on NCAA Brackets

After hearing all the so called experts discuss their picks and brackets, I decided to collect 20 of their brackets and analyze who they picked to determine trends. Here is a breakdown of who they picked. Whether to follow the pack or be unique with your own picks is up to you.

Championship

• 70% of the experts chose Kentucky to win the entire thing

Runner Up

• 8 different teams were chosen to lose the title game
• 30% UNC highest
• 30% have Kentucky over UNC

Final Four

• 90% picked Kentucky to reach the Final Four
• Only 20% picked #1 MSU, while 50% picked #2 Missouri out of the West Region
• #2 Kansas 50%, #1 UNC 45% from Midwest region
• 0% Georgetown, only #3 seed not picked
• 5% Duke, lowest #2 seed picked
• 30% FSU, highest #3 seed, and will increase with Syracuse suspension, #2 OSU only 20%

Elite Eight

• 100% of brackets had Kentucky in the Elite Eight
• 60% #3 Baylor, only 25% #2 Duke
• Only 60% MSU, lowest #1 seed
• Kansas 80%, highest #2 seed
• FSU 55%, OSU 45%, no others picked to meet there

Sweet Sixteen

• 3 #1 seeds got 95% or higher, except MSU, which 20% picked to be upset by #8 Memphis
• 3 #2 seeds got 85% or higher, except Duke, which 25% picked #10 Xavier or #7 ND
• FSU and Baylor strongest #3 seeds with 90% and 85%
• Georgetown and Marquette weakest #3 at only 55% and 65%
• #6 Murray State 35% over #3 Marquette
• 25% #11 NC State or 20% #6 San Diego over Georgetown
• #5 Vanderbilt 55%, #4 Wisconsin 45%, essentially a toss up
• Good luck guessing between #5 Wichita St 50%, #4 Indiana 30%, #12 VCU 20%
• Or these #4 Louisville 40%, #5 New Mexico 30%, #12 Long Beach 25%

Conclusions

• Since 29% of #1 seeds do not make the Elite 8, MSU is a good choice to falter.
• Since 37% of #2 seeds are upset in the 2^nd round, Duke is the trendy pick to go down.
• Only 13% of the time does a region go #1, #2, #3, #4, so pick against Georgetown as a #3 seed to continue this trend.
• Do not be afraid to pick a #5 over a #4 which is a toss-up, or a #12 like Long Beach or VCU.
• Since only 1 one time out of 31 has a Final Four been all #1 seeds, MSU and Syracuse look like most vulnerable.

Picking your Final Four Bracket

For the last two years I've written a post around March Madness time displaying some interesting trends about the percentage of seeds advancing in the tournament. Here are the trends from the past 26 seasons as well as the results that followed last year.

In the first round:

· #12 seeds upset the #5 seeds 34% of the time (last year it was 25% with #12 Richmond beating #5 Vanderbilt)

· 21% of #4 seeds go down (#4 Louisville was upset last year)

· Meanwhile only 15% of #3 seeds lose their first game (last year all four #3 seeds advanced)

In the second round:

· More #5 seeds make the sweet 16 than #4 seeds, (15 to 10) (25 year range is closer with #4 seeds making it 43-36 times, but last year backed it up with #5 Butler and #5 MSU advancing while only one #4 seed Purdue made it)

· Only 12% of #1 seeds were upset (Has happened two years in a row though)

· Meanwhile 37% of #2 seeds have been upset by the #7/#10 winner (#10 Florida State upset #2 Notre Dame last year)

· Only or 13% has a region gone #1, #2, #3, #4 (Which did not happen again last year)

Sweet 16 round:

· 71% of #1 seeds make the elite eight (Was only 25% last year when only #1 Kansas survived)

· On the other side of the region, 71% are either #2 or #3 seeds (75% last year)

Elite Eight round:

· Only one time in 31 years of the 64 team bracket has all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (Which was no exception last year)

· 42% of #1 seeds make the Final Four (No #1 seeds made it last year)

· #2 seeds make it 21% of the time (No #2 seeds made it last year as well)

· If you add up all the seeds that make the final four, the average total is 10.5. Meaning if you pick all #1 seeds, that’s less than half the average, or if you throw in a #11 George Mason with a #3, #2, and #1, that’s double the average. (Last year’s total of 26 (#3, #4, #8, #11) was more than double the average)

While last year followed these patterns pretty closely, it does not mean I picked the correct upsets nor won my pool. Boo. ESPN must have read this post earlier, since they have a version as well.

Virginia Spring Sports on “ESPNU”VA

Now that the Super Bowl is over, my attention is now with UVA basketball and spring sports. While the #19 men’s basketball team is in the middle of the ACC schedule, Virginia’s spring sports are about to begin as well. The preseason #1 lacrosse team will begin their title defense against #20 Drexel 2/18 while #23 baseball hopes to return to the College World Series beginning on 2/17. Meanwhile the #2 tennis team started play last week, but takes a hiatus for the indoor championships before resuming on 2/26. Don’t worry about checking your local TV listings, because the lacrosse and baseball teams will be nationally televised on ESPN’s family of networks 15 times in the regular season with 10-20 more times possible in the postseason. Here is a quick glance of the TV schedule:

Lacrosse:

2/25-Stony Brook-ESPN3

3/4-Syracuse-ESPN

3/10-Cornell-ESPNU

3/24-Johns Hopkins-ESPNU

3/31-Maryland-ESPNU

4/7-UNC-ESPN

4/13-Duke-ESPNU

4/20-22-ACC Tourny-ESPNU

4/27-Penn-ESPN3

5/12-NCAA First Rd-ESPNU

Baseball:

3/17-FSU-ESPNU

3/18-FSU-ESPN3

3/19-FSU-ESPNU

4/9-Wake Forest-ESPNU

4/28-Miami-ESPN3

4/30-Miami-ESPNU

5/12-GT-ESPN3

Virginia is going to be on ESPNU 10 times between 3/10 and 4/30? Might as well start calling the network ESPNUVA.

Super Bowl Deja Vu?

The buildup to this year’s Super Bowl surrounds two already Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and coaches. Both Eli Manning and Tom Brady have won at least one Super Bowl, while their current coaches have also won before. This got me thinking about how rare of a matchup this is. The chart at the bottom lists the starting QBs and coaches and there are some interesting results:

• This is the fifth time two SB winning QBs have faced off and also the fifth time two SB winning coaches have met.
• Surprisingly or not surprising at all, eight of those ten instances were the same games. The exceptions were when Warner (now on the Cardinals) faced Big Ben (now with Tomlin) and Don Shula was trying to win with Marino against Bill Walsh.
• Along similar correlating lines, there have been 27 QBs trying to win their second ring, and 29 coaches. Those QBs have won 17 or 63% of those attempts, while the coaches have gone 62%.
• It gets even weirder, three QBs have won their second ring with a different coach (Montana/Seifert, Aikman/Switzer, Big Ben/Tomlin) and three have lost trying with a new play caller (Warner/Martz, Warner/Whisenhunt, P Manning/Caldwell). Likewise, four coaches have won with a new QB (Gibbs/Williams, Parcells/Hostetler, Gibbs/Rypien, Seifert/Young) and four have lost with a new passer (Shula/Woodley, Shula/Marino, Parcells/Bledsoe, Holmgren/Hasselbeck).
• Since this is only the fourth matchup of two previously winning QBs and coaches in the same game, you would think it was the first rematch between the same two pairs in a Super Bowl. However, the Steelers of Bradshaw and Noll faced off against the Cowboys lead by Staubach and Landry twice after all four had already been champions.

What does this all mean for Super Bowl XLVI? Not a clue. However, I do have a new found respect for Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Kurt Warner and Super Bowl XIII.

Eli-te Manning

In the preseason Eli Manning answered a radio host’s question by saying he was an elite quarterback, which was met by scoffs from the media and opposing fans. While the Giants QB has been a Pro Bowler and Super Bowl MVP, he was not considered in the same class as other signal callers like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger, or even the best QB in his own family. Despite upsetting Brady in the Super Bowl, Eli’s aw shucks demeanor and 53 turnovers in the past two seasons while missing the playoffs did not help him get out of Peyton’s shadow.

However, since the season started, the youngest Manning has risen to the occasion. Aided by the middle Manning’s neck surgery and New York’s meager running game, Eli has captured the spotlight this season. In his best season as a pro, the Giants QB broke multiple Giants records including completions, yards, and career playoff touchdowns. His 4,933 yards would have been third all time going into this season, and when paired with 29 TD’s, would easily win MVP in other years. He even set a record for most 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season, previously held by Peyton and Johnny Unitas.

More importantly, Eli won his last two playoff games advancing to the NFC championship game, one win away from a possible Super Bowl rematch with Brady and the Patriots. With the two victories, he has improved his postseason record to 6-3, which at 67% compares quite favorably to other QBs with as many starts. If you look at the chart below, he has had more postseason success than Hall of Famers Staubach, Young, Griese, Tarkenton, Kelly, Marino, and Moon, as well as future Hall of Famers Favre and older brother Peyton. The nine QBs above him on the list have won a combined 23 of the 44 Super Bowls played, so maybe Eli’s new found stardom and renewed team success and will make it 24.

Quarterback	Wins	Losses	Percent	Hall of Fame
Bart Starr	9	1	90%	Yes
Jim Plunkett	8	2	80%
Tom Brady	15	5	75%	Will Be
Terry Bradshaw	14	5	74%	Yes
Troy Aikman	11	4	73%	Yes
Ben Roethlisberger	10	4	71%
Joe Montana	16	7	70%	Yes
Kurt Warner	9	4	69%	May Be
John Elway	14	7	67%	Yes
Eli Manning	6	3	67%
Roger Staubach	11	6	65%	Yes
Phil Simms	6	4	60%
Ken Stabler	7	5	58%
Steve Young	8	6	57%	Yes
Donovan McNabb	9	7	56%
Drew Brees	5	4	56%	May Be
Bob Griese	6	5	55%	Yes
Fran Tarkenton	6	5	55%	Yes
Brett Favre	13	11	54%	Will Be
Jim Kelly	9	8	53%	Yes
Steve McNair	5	5	50%
Danny White	5	5	50%
Mark Brunell	5	5	50%
Craig Morton	5	5	50%
Peyton Manning	9	10	47%	Will Be
Matt Hasselbeck	5	6	46%
Dan Marino	8	10	44%	Yes
Daryle Lamonica	4	5	44%
Randall Cunningham	3	6	33%
Dave Krieg	3	6	33%
Warren Moon	3	7	30%	Yes